ATL: PHILIPPE - Post - Tropical - Discussion

[jinftl]

From the 5pm Discussion, the NHC certainly seems to leave the door open to post-season analysis upgrading the storm to a hurricane. If they determine the winds actually were 65-KT...this is the 5th hurricane of the season.

AN ASCAT SWATH PARTIALLY CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 1331 UTC...AND SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY...IT SHOWED A COUPLE OF 55-KT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS IS BEING SET AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY...AND IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO A POTENTIAL LOW
BIAS IN THE DATA...AND BECAUSE THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD WAS NOT
MEASURED BY THE INSTRUMENT.

Is it possible Philippe peaked out at 70 or 75 mph? Hmmm...

[bg1]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

First Ophelia becomes a major hurricane after everyone forgot it existed, and now an encore?

The Active Systems map was so shocked at the latest news it hasn't updated for Philippe, and it's been an hour, or maybe it refuses to believe it:


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Maybe my prediction for Philippe isn't so crazy after all.

[jinftl]

Encore is right! Are Ophelia and Philippe trying to make up for the plethora of storms that couldn't get past tropical storm status this season? Hopefully this isn't an indication of what Rina, Sean, and Tammy (if they form) may try to pull!!!

Philippe now has an almost 1 in 5 shot of being a hurricane in the next 12 hours and a 1 in 5 shot of being a hurricane in 5 days...not to mention less than 1 in 10 shot of dissipating at all in the next 5 days....maybe i was focused on Ophelia, but did anyone else basically write Philippe off as a system that we wouldn't even be talking about in a day or 2?

[CrazyC83]

It is like all of a sudden we are seeing overachievers! This is in an inhospitable environment too!

[CrazyC83]

From the 5pm Discussion, the NHC certainly seems to leave the door open to post-season analysis upgrading the storm to a hurricane. If they determine the winds actually were 65-KT...this is the 5th hurricane of the season.

AN ASCAT SWATH PARTIALLY CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 1331 UTC...AND SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY...IT SHOWED A COUPLE OF 55-KT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS IS BEING SET AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY...AND IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO A POTENTIAL LOW
BIAS IN THE DATA...AND BECAUSE THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD WAS NOT
MEASURED BY THE INSTRUMENT.

Is it possible Philippe peaked out at 70 or 75 mph? Hmmm...

60 kt maybe, but I cannot see them putting it any higher without Recon in the current shape since Dvorak does not come anywhere near supporting that. Maybe if it was T3.5 then a case could be made.

[jinftl]

Exactly! As long as they continue to overachieve in the open atlantic to the east of Bermuda and Newfoundland....although i have a hunch folks in those locations aren't going to want to take their eyes off of Phil quite yet....the Philippines got hit by 2 typhoons in less than a week...not impossible Philippe could follow in Ophelia's footsteps and threaten Bermuda in Newfoundland in a few days

It is like all of a sudden we are seeing overachievers! This is in an inhospitable environment too!

[cycloneye]

While Ophelia has surprised with the cat 4 status,Philippe has even surprised more despite the hostil enviroment it has gone thru.

00z Best Track continues at 55kts.

AL, 17, 2011100200, , BEST, 0, 253N, 493W, 55, 996, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[CrazyC83]

01/2345 UTC 25.5N 49.1W T3.5/3.5 PHILIPPE -- Atlantic

An increase since the ASCAT pass. Probably worth going up to 60 kt for intensity.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...PHILIPPE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 49.8W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST. PHILIPPE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND THIS WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS PHILIPPE IS AFFECTED BY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN SPITE OF MORE THAN 30 KT OF
NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 0045 UTC SHOWED A MAXIMUM WIND OF 58 KT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING EVEN MORE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
WEAKENING AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR GRADUALLY
DECREASING...AND FALLING BELOW 20 KT AS PHILIPPE MOVES UNDER A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS AND
RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
EVENING...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 290/08. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AS
PHILIPPE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE
WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF PHILIPPE. BY DAY 3...THE
LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGE AND ALLOW PHILIPPE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS TURN. FOR EXAMPLE...AT DAY 5
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE SLOWER GFS AND
THE FASTER ECMWF IS MORE THAN 550 NM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS
TRENDED EVEN SLOWER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE...AS IT IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER MOVING WITH THE TROUGH
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE LARGE AND APPARENTLY
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
FORWARD MOTION IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT RADII IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WERE ADJUSTED BASED
ON DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 25.4N 49.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 25.8N 51.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 26.0N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 25.9N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 25.8N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 26.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 28.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 31.5N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

...PHILIPPE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 49.8W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[bexar]

Can Philippe make it to hurricane status?

[Macrocane]

I wouldn0t be surprised, although I think it has a better chance of becoming a hurricane in its 2nd lifetime, after the period of stronger shear that the NHC is forecasting.

[Buck]

That high shear is taking its toll now. Looks rough, aside from a still-tight circulation.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

PHILIPPE HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND IT ONLY
TOOK 30-40 KT OF SHEAR TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB. IN
ADDITION...VARIOUS SATELLITE PRODUCTS FROM THE CIMSS GROUP AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE PROVIDING ESTIMATES BETWEEN 40 AND 45
KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 45 KT ON THIS
ADVISORY.

AS THE DEEP CONVECTION BECAME SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLIER
THIS MORNING...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARED TO MAKE A JOG TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A WESTWARD MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS PHILIPPE IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO
ITS NORTH. THE CYCLONE REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY 72
HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE IT TO TURN SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD ON DAYS 3 AND 4. SOME ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST
IS FORECAST ON DAY 5 AS PHILIPPE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS TOWARD THE BAM SHALLOW
MODEL...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A MORE ACCURATE MOTION RECENTLY.
AFTER 72 HOURS...THE FORECAST SHOWS A WIDER AND FASTER RE-CURVATURE
THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS...AND THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE
ECMWF AND THE BAM SHALLOW AND MEDIUM MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE
HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD.
TAKING IT A STEP FURTHER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING PHILIPPE DISSIPATING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY DAY 3.
ALTHOUGH THAT IS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS FOR NOW AND SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RE-STRENGTHENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
HOWEVER...IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 26.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 26.5N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 26.3N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 26.2N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 26.3N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 28.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 30.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 32.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Macrocane]

Philippe is still fighting the shear and deep convection has re-developed right over the center:

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

A NEW ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND IS PARTIALLY COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE.
DVORAK CURRENT-INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS RECENTLY INCREASED TO 45 KT DUE TO
THE NEW CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 45
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED SATELLITE WINDS INDICATE THAT
A 60-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POINTED DUE SOUTH INTO
PHILIPPE...SO THE CYCLONE IS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BELLIGERENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE. THESE NEGATIVE
FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND FOSTER SOME RE-STRENGTHENING
BY DAY 3 WHEN PHILIPPE REACHES A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THIS WOULD BE A MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAN THE ONE PHILIPPE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO SHY AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE-
PRODUCING GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. ON THE OTHER END OF THE
SPECTRUM...THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT
3 DAYS.

PHILIPPE IS AVERAGING A MOTION OF 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT...BUT A
SHORTER-TERM MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE TURNED
TOWARD THE WEST AS FORECAST. THERE HAS BEEN A SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE. ALTHOUGH
THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A WIDER
AND SHARPER RE-CURVATURE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...THAT TREND
IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE 12Z CYCLE. IN ADDITION...THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS HAVE JOINED THE GFS IN THAT SOLUTION...AND EVEN THE
ECMWF NOW SHOWS A SHARPER TURN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...EVEN
SHOWING A BRIEF WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 26.3N 52.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 26.2N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 25.7N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 25.4N 59.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 25.5N 60.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 27.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 29.0N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 31.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OF PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF IN THE FACE OF VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM
THE NORTH. PHILIPPE MAY BE SOMEWHAT RESILIENT IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR
BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS CONFINED TO LEVELS ABOVE 300 MB INSTEAD OF
EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. A BLEND OF DVORAK
T- AND CI-NUMBERS AND RECENT ADT VALUES SUGGESTS THAT PHILIPPE IS
MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE
HOSTILE SHEAR AFFECTING PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
48-72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR WEAKENS...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION
EXPECTED IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN WHAT PHILIPPE IS EXPERIENCING
NOW...SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 BUT REMAINS A TAD
BELOW IT AT LATER TIMES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS WHEN THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.

RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED ITS HEADING. WHILE
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN.
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD TO EVEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
PHILIPPE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WHILE THE LARGE-
SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...DIFFERENCES
ARE SEEN IN THE SHARPNESS AND TIMING OF THE TURN. THESE DIFFERENCES
ARE LARGELY RELATED TO THE LATITUDE OF THE STORM WHEN IT FIRST
ENCOUNTERS THIS DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...
WHICH KEEP THE PHILIPPE FARTHER NORTH...FAVOR A QUICKER AND SHARPER
TURN WHILE THE GFS AND REGIONAL MODELS...WHICH LIE FARTHER SOUTH
INITIALLY...DELAY THE TURN AND ARE NOT AS SHARP. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GIVE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY GROUP OF GUIDANCE GREATER WEIGHT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN
THE OBSERVED MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 26.1N 53.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 25.9N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 25.6N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 25.5N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 26.1N 61.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 27.8N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 30.2N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 32.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[dwsqos2]

Philippe is just bizarre; several times over the course of its life an eye-type feature has been apparent on microwave imagery.



It's apparent in the low-levels as well.

http://i55.tinypic.com/14wzkpd.jpg

[bg1]

It has held its strength because the 30 kts of shear has been mostly in the upper levels according to the 5 am discussion.

[HURAKAN]

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