ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Cranica]

16/3/3 now. What on earth is going on

[AdamFirst]

The little storm that could.

What impacts could be seen in the Canadian maritimes assuming it's already undergone or undergoing extratropical transition...it's obviously stronger than previously forecast

[CrazyC83]

The major hurricane number might end up significant as well with an active October. The hurricane number will be the outlier.

[dwsqos2]

16/3/3 now. What on earth is going on

16/4/3 (Irene, Katia, Maria, Ophelia)

[CrazyC83]

An alternate scenario I can think of is an Irene-like expansion, which would lower the pressure but slowly weaken the storm in terms of winds. That would be BAD for Atlantic Canada.

[bexar]

THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT OPHELIA HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY...AND ONLY SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENCOUNTER COLD WATERS
RESULTING IN WEAKENING. OPHELIA SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

I just wanna ask if were there any instances wherein a storm strengthened more after the NHC says it has already in peaked in intensity?

[GCANE]

I'll go out on a limb and say she'll strengthen more to maybe a strong Cat 3 / Borderline Cat 4.

There are a couple mechanisms I have a theory on that could be currently influencing her.

I think there is still a window of opportunity for the next 24hrs.

[Cranica]

I just wanna ask if were there any instances wherein a storm strengthened more after the NHC says it has already in peaked in intensity?

I'm sure there are, but it's unusual. She's already showing some signs of weakening; she's less symmetric, cloud tops are warming, etc. Of course this might just be dmin at work, but she's not going to get another dmax before conditions decay.

[lilybeth]

looks more like a major hurricane now to me.

she is quite a small system though.

Actually, Ophelia is a little larger than average. TS winds extend out to 175 miles to the NE/SE and 100 miles in the western half. Here, I moved Ophelia into the west-central Gulf for a better perspective of its size: http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/op.gif

Wow, thank you for sharing that image. I had no idea of the size until I saw it taking up the gulf like that. I can't believe she is cat 3 this morning - big change from last night.

[tolakram]

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[bg1]

I went to the NHC's website before coming here, and, like I think everyone else here, did not expect another major hurricane. This season has been the strangest I've ever seen since late-season 2005.

Doesn't look like a major to me, though, on water vapor, however it seems to have colder cloud tops recently:


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[lilybeth]

I'm sorry if this is the wrong place to ask but will they be doing recon on Ophelia? I wondered if they would do it now since she is cat 3 and watches are advised to Bermuda. Any pro mets (or anyone else) know?

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2011 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 23:52:11 N Lon : 62:48:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 950.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +8.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.1 degrees

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the latest 1800Z numbers. If they are T5.5, then I would go with 105 kt as a blend of the data with the ADT.

[wxman57]

Could be 110. Recon was all over Ophelia when it barely had a circulation. Now recon is nowhere to be found.

[CrazyC83]

30/1745 UTC 24.1N 62.9W T5.0/5.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

From TAFB's ADT:

2011SEP30 174500 6.1 945.5/ +0.1 /117.4 6.1 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.64 -65.59 EYE 19 IR 24.10 62.76 COMBO

[CrazyC83]

AL, 16, 2011093018, , BEST, 0, 241N, 629W, 100, 960, HU, 34,

[Sanibel]

When western Atlantic systems head north they tend to react with intensification. Why is that? Better outflow?

[xironman]

When western Atlantic systems head north they tend to react with intensification. Why is that? Better outflow?

Total guess would be since they are no longer headed west they have less relative shear?