ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

45 kt (50 mph) winds.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281430
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011

...OPHELIA BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 59.9W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[warmer]

The new vortex is spinning off to north, but the big blob of moisture still left behind...

[wxman57]

The new vortex is spinning off to north, but the big blob of moisture still left behind...

I'm not observing that. Don't see anything moving off to the north away from the convection. Convection is increasing around the center, and Ophelia finally looks like a real TS. Satellite indicates slow NNW movement of the center.

[KUEFC]

wxman57 could you do me a MASSIVE favour, could you just check my post in the phillpe model thread? and reply? thanks so much and hope you can check it for me.

[Gustywind]

28/1145 UTC 18.6N 59.9W T2.5/2.5 OPHELIA
28/0545 UTC 18.4N 59.1W T2.0/2.0 OPHELIA

[Extratropical94]

Another fail headline by my "favourite" *cough* German weather page:
-> Hurricane Ophelia still remaining harmless <-

[wxman57]

Nobody cares about poor ol' Ophelia, even though it may be a hurricane threatening Bermuda in 4 days.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF OPHELIA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THIS
MORNING...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND PREVAILING AROUND THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. SINCE THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN APPEARANCE SINCE THE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION
INTO THE STORM EARLIER TODAY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE
REMAINS AT 45 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF OPHELIA IS PRODUCING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE STORM. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SLOW STRENGTHENING. IN 48 TO 72
HOURS...DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR AND
AROUND THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR OPHELIA TO BECOME
A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AGAIN CLOSE TO A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE NEW GUIDANCE FROM THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONT...
AND THEREFORE HAVING UNDERGONE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE MOTION IS NOW
ABOUT 330/7. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY AROUND 72 HOURS...THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST SHOULD TURN OPHELIA NORTHWARD. THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH
THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE NEW GFS RUN...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THEN
THE 0600 UTC RUN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 19.3N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.2N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 21.6N 61.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 23.3N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 25.2N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 31.0N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 40.0N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 52.0N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[expat2carib]

She is dumping a hell of a lot of rain on Dominica

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.shtml

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am in Dominica right now and have been here for a month attending medical school (was in Tampa Bay before this)...
there has been torrential rain/squalls since last night...a lot of heavy flooding and flash flooding here.

http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/all- ... -dominica/

Also windy with power outages

[AJC3]

I am in Dominica right now and have been here for a month attending medical school (was in Tampa Bay before this)...
there has been torrential rain/squalls since last night...a lot of heavy flooding and flash flooding here.

http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/all- ... -dominica/

Also windy with power outages

Wow! Those are some amazing pics. Thanks for sharing...and stay safe!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thank you! Yes I am trying to stay safe...several parts of the south/west coasts of dominica got major
flash flooding...I have seen some of the flooding near portsmouth beach areas.

[caribepr]

I don't know why there isn't more interest, Ophelia is a pretty unusual piece of work! Maybe the fear and danger factor is missing for most of the posters? For weather people though...she's putting on a Fellini.

[bg1]

Nobody cares about poor ol' Ophelia, even though it may be a hurricane threatening Bermuda in 4 days.

Perhaps we all have "Tropical Letdown Syndrome". TLS becomes increasingly common as the number of sheared TSs in the deep tropics increases.

At least there will be another hurricane in the books, one that probably won't affect Bermuda that much, and can bring the ratio of H to TS to 25%.

[CrazyC83]

Until we get a major or a serious land threat as a significant hurricane, I think a lot of people have been let down.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282308
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 08 20110928
225830 2023N 06142W 9463 00558 0088 +207 +179 060029 030 /// /// 03
225900 2024N 06143W 9570 00455 0083 +212 +189 063028 030 /// /// 03
225930 2025N 06143W 9596 00427 0077 +216 +194 065027 028 /// /// 03
230000 2026N 06142W 9595 00429 0078 +215 +193 066025 025 /// /// 03
230030 2026N 06141W 9590 00432 0078 +215 +191 063024 025 /// /// 03
230100 2026N 06139W 9596 00427 0077 +216 +189 062025 026 /// /// 03
230130 2026N 06138W 9593 00429 0077 +215 +186 058025 026 /// /// 03
230200 2026N 06136W 9596 00426 0077 +216 +184 059027 028 /// /// 03
230230 2026N 06135W 9594 00428 0077 +213 +182 063026 027 /// /// 03
230300 2025N 06133W 9597 00425 0077 +215 +181 062026 027 /// /// 03
230330 2025N 06132W 9594 00428 0078 +211 +179 064027 028 /// /// 03
230400 2025N 06131W 9594 00428 0078 +211 +177 066027 028 /// /// 03
230430 2025N 06129W 9606 00419 0078 +210 +175 061028 030 /// /// 03
230500 2023N 06128W 9597 00425 0077 +210 +174 061031 031 /// /// 03
230530 2022N 06127W 9593 00428 0076 +210 +172 064030 031 /// /// 03
230600 2021N 06126W 9592 00428 0075 +212 +171 064030 031 /// /// 03
230630 2020N 06125W 9593 00427 0076 +210 +170 063031 032 /// /// 03
230700 2019N 06124W 9594 00426 0075 +210 +169 064032 034 /// /// 03
230730 2018N 06123W 9594 00426 0074 +210 +168 063033 035 026 003 03
230800 2017N 06122W 9589 00430 0074 +210 +167 062033 034 025 004 03


Flying the system from NW-SE.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282318
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 09 20110928
230830 2016N 06121W 9592 00427 0074 +211 +166 062034 035 029 001 03
230900 2015N 06120W 9596 00422 0073 +211 +166 064035 036 028 003 03
230930 2013N 06119W 9593 00423 0072 +211 +165 064036 037 032 004 03
231000 2012N 06118W 9596 00421 0072 +210 +165 064035 036 032 003 03
231030 2011N 06117W 9591 00425 0072 +210 +164 062037 039 033 002 03
231100 2010N 06116W 9592 00422 0071 +209 +164 060036 037 033 001 03
231130 2009N 06115W 9600 00415 0070 +208 +163 060038 039 031 004 03
231200 2008N 06114W 9598 00416 0070 +207 +163 058038 040 032 002 03
231230 2007N 06113W 9599 00415 0069 +206 +162 058041 042 034 001 03
231300 2006N 06112W 9597 00416 0068 +208 +161 062042 043 033 003 03
231330 2005N 06111W 9592 00420 0067 +205 +159 063041 041 035 005 03
231400 2004N 06110W 9591 00419 0065 +208 +157 062042 043 033 005 03
231430 2003N 06109W 9589 00419 0064 +208 +154 059041 044 033 005 03
231500 2002N 06108W 9598 00412 0064 +207 +152 060038 039 036 004 00
231530 2000N 06107W 9594 00414 0063 +209 +150 061039 040 035 006 03
231600 1959N 06106W 9592 00416 0063 +207 +150 058042 044 034 006 03
231630 1958N 06105W 9598 00410 0063 +203 +151 060045 047 036 006 03
231700 1957N 06104W 9596 00408 0061 +206 +155 062045 046 035 008 00
231730 1956N 06103W 9556 00451 0062 +207 +159 062045 046 038 007 03
231800 1955N 06102W 9581 00421 0057 +213 +163 063045 046 035 005 00
$$
;

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282318
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 09 20110928
230830 2016N 06121W 9592 00427 0074 +211 +166 062034 035 029 001 03
230900 2015N 06120W 9596 00422 0073 +211 +166 064035 036 028 003 03
230930 2013N 06119W 9593 00423 0072 +211 +165 064036 037 032 004 03
231000 2012N 06118W 9596 00421 0072 +210 +165 064035 036 032 003 03
231030 2011N 06117W 9591 00425 0072 +210 +164 062037 039 033 002 03
231100 2010N 06116W 9592 00422 0071 +209 +164 060036 037 033 001 03
231130 2009N 06115W 9600 00415 0070 +208 +163 060038 039 031 004 03
231200 2008N 06114W 9598 00416 0070 +207 +163 058038 040 032 002 03
231230 2007N 06113W 9599 00415 0069 +206 +162 058041 042 034 001 03
231300 2006N 06112W 9597 00416 0068 +208 +161 062042 043 033 003 03
231330 2005N 06111W 9592 00420 0067 +205 +159 063041 041 035 005 03
231400 2004N 06110W 9591 00419 0065 +208 +157 062042 043 033 005 03
231430 2003N 06109W 9589 00419 0064 +208 +154 059041 044 033 005 03
231500 2002N 06108W 9598 00412 0064 +207 +152 060038 039 036 004 00
231530 2000N 06107W 9594 00414 0063 +209 +150 061039 040 035 006 03
231600 1959N 06106W 9592 00416 0063 +207 +150 058042 044 034 006 03
231630 1958N 06105W 9598 00410 0063 +203 +151 060045 047 036 006 03
231700 1957N 06104W 9596 00408 0061 +206 +155 062045 046 035 008 00
231730 1956N 06103W 9556 00451 0062 +207 +159 062045 046 038 007 03
231800 1955N 06102W 9581 00421 0057 +213 +163 063045 046 035 005 00

Highest FL wind 47 kt at 960 hPa level, 36 kt unflagged SFMR.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282328
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 10 20110928
231830 1954N 06101W 9580 00421 0056 +205 +165 059046 046 035 006 00
231900 1953N 06100W 9580 00418 0055 +200 +168 055045 046 036 010 00
231930 1952N 06059W 9579 00417 0054 +188 +170 051043 044 038 011 00
232000 1951N 06057W 9569 00428 0054 +185 +174 047043 043 039 009 00
232030 1950N 06056W 9580 00416 0052 +189 +178 054039 041 037 010 00
232100 1948N 06055W 9586 00408 0050 +185 +182 052042 045 035 012 03
232130 1947N 06054W 9573 00420 0049 +184 //// 055048 049 039 011 01
232200 1946N 06053W 9569 00418 0044 +185 //// 054042 046 048 020 05
232230 1945N 06052W 9576 00409 0044 +184 //// 057035 039 048 021 01
232300 1944N 06051W 9582 00404 0042 +186 //// 058036 037 041 012 05
232330 1943N 06050W 9580 00406 0038 +206 +195 066041 044 036 005 00
232400 1942N 06049W 9575 00408 0036 +206 +197 068041 042 036 004 03
232430 1941N 06049W 9548 00431 0033 +205 +198 070044 046 033 005 03
232500 1939N 06048W 9562 00416 0029 +210 +198 068047 050 037 004 03
232530 1938N 06047W 9560 00414 0027 +206 +198 067048 050 037 006 00
232600 1937N 06046W 9556 00415 0023 +209 +197 066052 052 039 006 03
232630 1935N 06046W 9553 00416 0020 +214 +196 066051 051 041 003 03
232700 1934N 06045W 9556 00410 0017 +210 +197 065047 048 039 005 00
232730 1933N 06044W 9555 00410 0014 +213 +197 065046 047 041 002 00
232800 1931N 06043W 9552 00408 0014 +194 //// 058044 045 039 009 05
$$
;

52 kt FL, 48 kt SFMR.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282328
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 10 20110928
231830 1954N 06101W 9580 00421 0056 +205 +165 059046 046 035 006 00
231900 1953N 06100W 9580 00418 0055 +200 +168 055045 046 036 010 00
231930 1952N 06059W 9579 00417 0054 +188 +170 051043 044 038 011 00
232000 1951N 06057W 9569 00428 0054 +185 +174 047043 043 039 009 00
232030 1950N 06056W 9580 00416 0052 +189 +178 054039 041 037 010 00
232100 1948N 06055W 9586 00408 0050 +185 +182 052042 045 035 012 03
232130 1947N 06054W 9573 00420 0049 +184 //// 055048 049 039 011 01
232200 1946N 06053W 9569 00418 0044 +185 //// 054042 046 048 020 05
232230 1945N 06052W 9576 00409 0044 +184 //// 057035 039 048 021 01
232300 1944N 06051W 9582 00404 0042 +186 //// 058036 037 041 012 05
232330 1943N 06050W 9580 00406 0038 +206 +195 066041 044 036 005 00
232400 1942N 06049W 9575 00408 0036 +206 +197 068041 042 036 004 03
232430 1941N 06049W 9548 00431 0033 +205 +198 070044 046 033 005 03
232500 1939N 06048W 9562 00416 0029 +210 +198 068047 050 037 004 03
232530 1938N 06047W 9560 00414 0027 +206 +198 067048 050 037 006 00
232600 1937N 06046W 9556 00415 0023 +209 +197 066052 052 039 006 03
232630 1935N 06046W 9553 00416 0020 +214 +196 066051 051 041 003 03
232700 1934N 06045W 9556 00410 0017 +210 +197 065047 048 039 005 00
232730 1933N 06044W 9555 00410 0014 +213 +197 065046 047 041 002 00
232800 1931N 06043W 9552 00408 0014 +194 //// 058044 045 039 009 05


Highest FL wind 52 kt at 960 hPa level, 41 kt unflagged SFMR.