ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Caribwxgirl]

Any spaghetti models? I don't really understand the numbers...

[chrisjslucia]

Looking at the radar she keeps on being almost stationary east of here.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Keeps on sucking energy out of here.......no wind........no seas........hot.......hot.......hot. Clouds just hanging above with very little movement.

Looks like Martinique is getting som of the action right now

Looking out now, 8 pm EST, the lightning is spectacular. It is immense on occasions and covers an arc from due North to WNW, but particularly strong to the NW. The radar shows this moving south if slowly. Martinique, 26 miles away, is under much of this. But there is little wind and, as yet, no rain in St Lucia but may well be some soon if this direction continues. If Ophelia is moving WNW, what is this?!

[chrisjslucia]

Loop

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosa ... aeatle.gif

Moving south in parts....? The female storms have been real tricksters this year

[caribepr]

Looking at the radar she keeps on being almost stationary east of here.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Keeps on sucking energy out of here.......no wind........no seas........hot.......hot.......hot. Clouds just hanging above with very little movement.

Looks like Martinique is getting som of the action right now

Looking out now, 8 pm EST, the lightning is spectacular. It is immense on occasions and covers an arc from due North to WNW, but particularly strong to the NW. The radar shows this moving south if slowly. Martinique, 26 miles away, is under much of this. But there is little wind and, as yet, no rain in St Lucia but may well be some soon if this direction continues. If Ophelia is moving WNW, what is this?!

We're having the same. Still, blindingly hot and humid (eased off some at dark). We're quite a bit farther west but that quiet feeling of 'break's gotta come' just as much. No rain today, a first in weeks, but the radar shows weather falling down on us shortly. Very weird to have it so close and yet not much going on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 16, 2011092800, , BEST, 0, 183N, 595W, 30, 1009, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

For the E Caribbean folks,remember that we have the Caribbean thread to post the local observations.

[chrisjslucia]

Well the 8 pm NHC Tropical Weather discussion casts some light on what is happening over Martinique:

THE PREVIOUS REMNANTS OF OPHELIA HAVE REGENERATED INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS OF 2100 UTC. T.D. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 60.5W...OR ABOUT 150 NM ESE OF THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING WNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE NRN WINDWARDS ISLANDS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
58W-62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 56W-63W. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

[GCANE]

Also off-topic but could be relevant to everyone in the Carib and along the east coast.

Activity at the El Hierro Volcano in the Canary Islands has significantly stepped up in the last 24 hrs.

Government there has started evacs.

I have a thread going here:

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=111309

[CrazyC83]

Should a regional Ophelia impacts thread be set up?

[CrazyC83]

Cat 2 per SHIPS at that rate if it still intensifies more?

[Gustywind]

From SSD... increasing t-numbers.


27/2345 UTC 17.8N 59.8W T1.5/1.5 OPHELIA
27/1745 UTC 17.6N 58.9W T1.0/1.0 OPHELIA

[Gustywind]

TD Ophelia

[Cranica]

Looks better-organized than she ever has at the moment.

[cycloneye]

Should a regional Ophelia impacts thread be set up?

In this case as no Tropical Storm watches or warnings are up for the islands,is not needed.

[Gustywind]

Loop.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 59.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011

FROM THE BIG PICTURE...OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY WELL
ORGANIZED WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN AND A ROUND BALL OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW A MUCH DIFFERENT
PERSPECTIVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ELONGATED FROM
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND PEAK SFMR VALUES OF ONLY
ABOUT 29 KT. THE INITIAL WINDS ARE SET TO 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE SFMR ESTIMATES.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING. WHILE THE
CURRENT OUTFLOW PATTERN WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS TROUGH SHOULD SOON RAISE THE SHEAR NEAR OPHELIA...
AND SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS A RATHER POOR INITIAL LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE...ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST
DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS AN UPPER HIGH
BUILDS CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
FASTER INTENSIFICATION. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST
RUN...SHOWING OPHELIA ONLY BECOMING A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
BECAUSE OF MUCH HIGHER FORECAST SHEAR. SOME OF THIS CHANGE MIGHT
BE DUE TO THE INTERPOLATED OLD OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GOOD
DEAL FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND IN THIS CASE INTRODUCES SOME
ARTIFICIAL SHEAR AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
I HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY
GIVEN THE GFDL/HWRF STILL SHOWING CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE STATUS...BUT
THE TREND IN THESE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOULD BE WATCHED.

MICROWAVE AND AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...HAS
REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST...A BIT CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.
A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/3...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TURN
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIVING OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN SIX HOURS
AGO...ALTHOUGH THE SPEED DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT. THE NHC
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CENTER REPOSITIONING...AND IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE TRACK AFTER THAT TIME...A BIT FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 18.4N 59.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.8N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.5N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.9N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.4N 61.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 26.3N 62.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 32.0N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 40.0N 57.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 280251
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 59.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[bexar]

still looks like a struggling system

[Andrew92]

Impressive.... but when will she make a move? Guess I should have seen such unpredictability given how drunk Ophelia was back in '05. Couldn't resist again this go around. I wish she could be retired just for that alone!

Well OK, as long as she stays away from land I guess it's not a big deal.

-Andrew92

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 280831
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011

...OPHELIA MEANDERING EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 60.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011

OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY ORGANIZING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN A CURVED BAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES HAVE GAINED SOME
CURVATURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH OPHELIA COULD BE
NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THE LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/3. A
SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS OPHELIA REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GAIN SPEED AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONGER FLOW BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD MOVE OPHELIA AWAY FROM
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF
BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A TOUCH TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
STRENGTHENING...IT SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL AND HFIP CONSENSUS AIDS...
BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS OPHELIA CROSSES A
SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND ENCOUNTERS SOME INCREASE
IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 18.6N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 19.2N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 20.4N 60.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.8N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 23.4N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 27.7N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 34.0N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 43.5N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI