ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Nice analysis, GCANE. You're convincing me. Right now the visible sat doesn't show much shear at all. This one just doesn't want to give up. Go ahead, wxman, tell us how shear will be back and rip it apart soon.

[EyewallReconstructor]

Any observations to support the best track estimate of the LLC? 19.0N,59.4W is on the northern edge of the deepest convection, but can't really see any evidence of it on visible. Makes some sense considering the light shear is out of the SW.

[wxman57]

Nice analysis, GCANE. You're convincing me. Right now the visible sat doesn't show much shear at all. This one just doesn't want to give up. Go ahead, wxman, tell us how shear will be back and rip it apart soon.

Oh, I think Ophelia will make it to a hurricane in 96 hrs. Yep. I need 2 more hurricanes in October to win our monthly forecast contest. Philippe will reach hurricane strength, too. That'll do it!

Seriously, though, we have Ophelia regenerating to a TS in 48 hrs.

[GCANE]

Nice analysis, GCANE. You're convincing me. Right now the visible sat doesn't show much shear at all. This one just doesn't want to give up. Go ahead, wxman, tell us how shear will be back and rip it apart soon.

Thanks Phil.

[wxman57]

Any observations to support the best track estimate of the LLC? 19.0N,59.4W is on the northern edge of the deepest convection, but can't really see any evidence of it on visible. Makes some sense considering the light shear is out of the SW.

You won't see much on satellite yet. Observations do indicate a broad LLC encompassing the NE Antilles. Possibly centered about where I have the crosshairs on the image below. But nothing really evident at that point yet. That buoy north of Ophelia has been reporting a falling pressure all day. Down to 1012.9mb now.

Outflow is looking pretty good, convection is consolidating. Ophelia Part Two coming soon...

[GCANE]

Off topic - but a huge geomagnetic storm is underway - strong to extreme.

This is from sunspot 11302.

We could see intermittent satellite disruptions.

[EyewallReconstructor]

Any observations to support the best track estimate of the LLC? 19.0N,59.4W is on the northern edge of the deepest convection, but can't really see any evidence of it on visible. Makes some sense considering the light shear is out of the SW.

You won't see much on satellite yet. Observations do indicate a broad LLC encompassing the NE Antilles. Possibly centered about where I have the crosshairs on the image below. But nothing really evident at that point yet. That buoy north of Ophelia has been reporting a falling pressure all day. Down to 1012.9mb now.

Outflow is looking pretty good, convection is consolidating. Ophelia Part Two coming soon...

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Ophelia2.gif

Where you put the crosshairs makes the most sense for the LLC location given the buoy reports and convection. However, when I look at the visible loop, my eyes are immediately drawn to the east side of the convection, near the 58W longitude line. Do you see what I mean? What are the chances we see the center form over there?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[wxman57]

Where you put the crosshairs makes the most sense for the LLC location given the buoy reports and convection. However, when I look at the visible loop, my eyes are immediately drawn to the east side of the convection, near the 58W longitude line. Do you see what I mean? What are the chances we see the center form over there?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Actually, I do see rotation near 56W on the visible loop. It would seem unlikely for an LLC to form there, though.

[Blown Away]

Why is this not invest status again?

[AdamFirst]

Why is this not invest status again?

Because it's an ex-named storm. It's being tracked as the former Ophelia.

[MGC]

Ophelia is getting back together quickly. I expect the percentage to go up a good bit. Bet it is a TS this time tomorrow.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 695 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[wxman57]

Agree it'll be a TS in less than 48 hrs.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 16, 2011092700, , BEST, 0, 191N, 594W, 25, 1010, LO

[CrazyC83]

So Ophelia is NOT dead? Maybe she will peek back through that ?

[warmer]

moving south?

[NDG]

moving south?

Just an illussion IMO, convection being pulled to the south by the displaced MLC to the SE of the surface COC.
Not unless the surface circulation reforms closer to the MLC.

[meriland23]

So if she reforms, is she still heading that path like it was or is this a entirely new ball game

[AJC3]

So if she reforms, is she still heading that path like it was or is this a entirely new ball game

No new ball game here. A huge trough will take up residence over the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic later this week, which will turn Opehlia to the north, slowly, and then eventually back to the northeast this weekend.

[tomboudreau]

East coast expecting any good waves from Ophelia? Heading to the OBX next week for a sun and relaxation. Would love to sit on the beach next week and watch the waves break!