ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 60.4W AT 25/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OPHELIA REMAINS UNDER
STRONG SW SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

[Gustywind]

i disagree nhc know what their doing we dont need other group do storm classification.

I think they do need an independent group to upgrade/downgrade. I've been a pro met for 31 years now, longer than most of the NHC forecasters. Ophelia doesn't qualify as a TS by any stretch of the imagination.

You have my vote for chairman of the independent NHC Committee for Initial Classification and Upgrade/Downgrade (CICUD) of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.

Good salary I hereby suggest

1 more vote

[HenkL]

000
URNT12 KNHC 251950
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162011
A. 25/19:14:40Z
B. 18 deg 28 min N
060 deg 30 min W
C. NA
D. 23 kt
E. 039 deg 65 nm
F. 060 deg 22 kt
G. 041 deg 85 nm
H. EXTRAP 1013 mb
I. 24 C / 304 m
J. 25 C / 312 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF303 0416A OPHELIA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 23 KT NW QUAD 16:56:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;


I didn't post the HDOB's, cause they weren't very interesting.
Mission over.

[cycloneye]

A very high tower of the leading convection ahead of very weak LLC is seen near St Maarten.



Uploaded by tinypic.com

[cycloneye]

No more Ophelia (For now)

000
WTNT31 KNHC 252040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 60.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW...AND THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OPHELIA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Excerpt of discussion.

ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT CENTER...WHICH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A NEW CIRCULATION CENTER COULD EVENTUALLY FORM IN
THE DEEP CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS NEW CENTER IS
PROBABLY THE ONE THAT IS DEPICTED AS MOVING TO HIGHER LATITUDES BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
REGENERATION OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ANY
EVENT...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT.

[Hylian Auree]

About time.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILLIPE...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY
ON TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA.

THE REMNANT LOW OF OPHELIA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[bexar]

tsk, another 2011 disappointment.

[expat2carib]

tsk, another 2011 disappointment.

Another 2011 relieve

Don't wish one of this systems upon somebody's head please

[bexar]

tsk, another 2011 disappointment.

Another 2011 relieve

Don't wish one of this systems upon somebody's head please

I'm not wishing it one anyone's expense. I just want to have something to decent to track this year.

16 storms so far... only three have become hurricanes, how corny is that?

[Gustywind]

tsk, another 2011 disappointment.

Another 2011 relieve

Don't wish one of this systems upon somebody's head please

I'm not wishing it one anyone's expense. I just want to have something to decent to track this year.

16 storms so far... only three have become hurricanes, how corny is that?

Hopefully you were not living in PR. Tell Cycloneye how 2011 is a nasty year in terms of rainfall

[CrazyC83]

It doesn't appear like regenesis will occur.

Unless that is right, don't let the crash on you Ophelia! See you in 2017!

[CrazyC83]

25/2345 UTC 18.8N 61.0W T1.0/1.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic

It had been "TOO WEAK" the last 18 hours, so that is an increase.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 16, 2011092600, , BEST, 0, 186N, 613W, 25, 1011, LO

[CrazyC83]

Comeback in store?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2011 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 18:43:35 N Lon : 61:26:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1010.0mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.4 3.7

[floridasun78]

Comeback in store?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2011 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 18:43:35 N Lon : 61:26:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1010.0mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.4 3.7

what that mean?

[StarmanHDB]

200 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

YELLOW ALERT
20% CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[GCANE]

From JB:

Ophelia likely to redevelop behind the original system. Front piece has split off and is heading west.

http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/st ... 92/photo/1

[wxman57]

Bones says he's going to sit and wait for Ophelia to regenerate.

[warmer]

she looks a lot more like a tropic storm now, 20% is low?