ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

TS Ophelia making an approach far east of the Lesser Antilles...

[Gustywind]

Here is a loop of Ophelia.

[tobol.7uno]

once ophelia escapes the deep tropics it may have some chance, if anything remains.

She will probably be very similar to Maria, she is going to follow the path and strengthen as she move north toward Newfoundland maybe not to a hurricane though, that is if she survives her trek through or near Carribean.

[MGC]

Lets hope the shear stays strong so the folks in the Islands don't see a strong system...MGC

[rainstorm]

once ophelia escapes the deep tropics it may have some chance, if anything remains.

She will probably be very similar to Maria, she is going to follow the path and strengthen as she move north toward Newfoundland maybe not to a hurricane though, that is if she survives her trek through or near Carribean.

i agree. tropics have been extremely hostile this season across the basin.

[tobol.7uno]

Lets hope the shear stays strong so the folks in the Islands don't see a strong system...MGC

Looks like it will be that way.

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS forecasts a pretty tight recurve, ultimately bringing the storm east of Bermuda.

Here it is at 144h



Loop

[wxman57]

Given the projected pattern along the East U.S. Coast next Monday, Below is a chart valid 18Z Monday. 500mb heights (every 10m) and winds (kts). Canadian and Euro are similar. Giant upper low across the NE U.S. next week with westerly winds at most levels from the Gulf to New England. It's not hard to see why Ophelia is absolutely no threat to the U.S. The models may get minor features wrong, but they won't likely have this major trof there by mistake in the 3-5 day time frame. May be more shear as Ophelia recurves than with Maria.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211756 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2011

CORRECTION TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION AND DATE/TIME
INFORMATION REGARDING A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THAT
DISSIPATED

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AT 21/1500 UTC IS NEAR
13.0N 43.6W...OR ABOUT 1050 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. OPHELIA IS MOVING WEST 14 KT. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ABOUT OPHELIA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT OPHELIA ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N
TO 14N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. THIS PRECIPITATION RANGES FROM 90 NM
TO 120 NM AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N28W TO 29N34W 25N42W AND
26N51W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
TROUGH REACHES 19N46W...STILL ABOUT 385 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF OPHELIA.

[clfenwi]

Divergence in the HWRF and GFDL intensity forecasts continue. 12Z HWRF has Ophelia all but spun down at the point in time (~ 60h) the GFDL really starts to intensify her.

HWRF



GFDL

[Blown Away]

Given the projected pattern along the East U.S. Coast next Monday, Below is a chart valid 18Z Monday. 500mb heights (every 10m) and winds (kts). Canadian and Euro are similar. Giant upper low across the NE U.S. next week with westerly winds at most levels from the Gulf to New England. It's not hard to see why Ophelia is absolutely no threat to the U.S. The models may get minor features wrong, but they won't likely have this major trof there by mistake in the 3-5 day time frame. May be more shear as Ophelia recurves than with Maria.

What causes these persistent EC troughs?

[AJC3]

Given the projected pattern along the East U.S. Coast next Monday, Below is a chart valid 18Z Monday. 500mb heights (every 10m) and winds (kts). Canadian and Euro are similar. Giant upper low across the NE U.S. next week with westerly winds at most levels from the Gulf to New England. It's not hard to see why Ophelia is absolutely no threat to the U.S. The models may get minor features wrong, but they won't likely have this major trof there by mistake in the 3-5 day time frame. May be more shear as Ophelia recurves than with Maria.

What causes these persistent EC troughs?

A stable long wave pattern over NOAM. In particular, the southern CONUS "heat ridge of death" has refused to budge or weaken all season, so short wave energy (i.e. short wave troughs) is forced to ride over the top of it and amplify downstream (farther east) over the eastern CONUS and adjacent western ATLC.

[tobol.7uno]

[tobol.7uno]

[tobol.7uno]

GFS finally makes the shift...

[clfenwi]

18z best track

AL, 16, 2011092118, , BEST, 0, 135N, 440W, 50, 1000, TS

[tobol.7uno]

Slowly getting weaker...

[StormClouds63]

The persistent re-curve pattern holds firm yet again. Thanks for the info, WxMan57.

[Extratropical94]

Intense convection blowing up with cloud tops of < -80°C.

IR - 1945Z:


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

Those squalls are a little closer to the center, but the center is passing 45W now - on the western edge of the convection. There's a buoy just NW of the center (80 miles or so - 41041). It should go through Ophelia's heavier squalls this evening. Max winds reported so far are 31 kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041