"The instability has been usually low for last two years."
In 2010, the Atlantic managed to generate 165 units of ACE, so vertical instability didn't limit last season very much.
I think that the cool east Atlantic played a role, as well as the driver of that cool east Atlantic,
a kind of strong Azores high. Every single cyclone of tropical origins has had issues with fast low-level easterlies, and the current invests, based on current modeling, will have issues with fast low-level flow as well.
Season Cancel!
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Re: Season Cancel!
dwsqos2 wrote:"The instability has been usually low for last two years."
In 2010, the Atlantic managed to generate 165 units of ACE, so vertical instability didn't limit last season very much.
I think that the cool east Atlantic played a role, as well as the driver of that cool east Atlantic,
a kind of strong Azores high. Every single cyclone of tropical origins has had issues with fast low-level easterlies, and the current invests, based on current modeling, will have issues with fast low-level flow as well.
There were plenty of vertical instability issues in 2010. It was one of the reasons for the slow start. Also, it was a major reason why the Carribean had issues throughout the season. See my references below. In my opinion the ACE was higher because most of the strong systems formed out in the open Atlantic were vertical instability had improved by late August. The Gulf and Carribean though had issues with vertical instability throughout the year.
1) Colorado State August 17th. See Page 8.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Two_Week_Forecasts/august_18_2010.pdf
2) Jeff Master's August 2010
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1579
2) October 2010 comments by Wxman 57 on Storm2k about problems with Vertical Instability in W. Carribean.
wxman57 Post subject: Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - DiscussionPosted: Sun Oct 10, 2010 8:29 pm
Take a look at the trace of vertical instability in the Caribbean for the season and you can see why systems have just not developed there. Instability is WAY DOWN below climo. That means the airmass is very stable across the Caribbean now.
Link : http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=72&t=109677&p=2082956&hilit=Vertical+Instability#p2082956
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hurricanetrack
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Ok, so what is the cause of this vertical instability issue....the lack of it?
Let's say for a moment that man made global warming is in fact happening. Forget all the political stuff for a moment- just go with this for a moment....
IF we have global warming and we know that warm air can hold more moisture than cold air, then it stands to reason that our warmer atmosphere is more stable because it is warmer and can hold more moisture. Since we are not pumping more moisture in to the atmosphere, but could be making it warmer, we are seeing a more stable atmosphere. Hence the drought and lack of global tropical cyclone activity for the last several years. Logically, this seems to make sense, does it not?
What else would cause a decrease in vertical instability?
Let's say for a moment that man made global warming is in fact happening. Forget all the political stuff for a moment- just go with this for a moment....
IF we have global warming and we know that warm air can hold more moisture than cold air, then it stands to reason that our warmer atmosphere is more stable because it is warmer and can hold more moisture. Since we are not pumping more moisture in to the atmosphere, but could be making it warmer, we are seeing a more stable atmosphere. Hence the drought and lack of global tropical cyclone activity for the last several years. Logically, this seems to make sense, does it not?
What else would cause a decrease in vertical instability?
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Re: Season Cancel!
is the most lame non-El nino year ever in the recent years? 
what are the chances of El Nino's return for next year?
what are the chances of El Nino's return for next year?
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Re: Season Cancel!
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The Atlantic season next year might be below normal if the trends toward lower SST's in the Atlantic hold.
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rainstorm
Re: Season Cancel!
bg1 wrote:http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/2696/75481128.png
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The Atlantic season next year might be below normal if the trends toward lower SST's in the Atlantic hold.
above normal sst's in the atlantic havent exactly lead to much excitement the last 3 years. its a factor, but not a season breaking factor. ill take normal sst's along with a bermuda high anytime.
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Florida1118
Re: Season Cancel!
Yeah, I doubt we will get <11 storms because a little blue on the map. Its not really a breaking factor.
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Re: Season Cancel!
dwsqos2 wrote:"The instability has been usually low for last two years."
In 2010, the Atlantic managed to generate 165 units of ACE, so vertical instability didn't limit last season very much.
I think that the cool east Atlantic played a role, as well as the driver of that cool east Atlantic,
a kind of strong Azores high. Every single cyclone of tropical origins has had issues with fast low-level easterlies, and the current invests, based on current modeling, will have issues with fast low-level flow as well.
Last year's vertical instability was slightly higher than this year in the tropical Atlantic.
So far this year:
2010
I don't think fast low level easterlies were a factor this year, they have not been any higher than an average year, IMO. A good reason is because SLPs have been well below average indicative that the Azore's high has been weaker than average.
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rainstorm
Re: Season Cancel!
Thank you for posting that 2010 image. I had a hard time finding the archive site when I posted earlier. You can clearly see that 2010 was below normal and I agree this year is worse. The Carribean was way below normal last year after mid July.
Looking at other basins, 2010 had this problem globally. Might explain why activity was so low last year. The W. Pacific IV was slight above normal and the E. Pacific was slightly below normal.
E. Pacific
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2010/gwepains.gif
W. Pacifc I
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2010/mtwp1ins.gif
W. Pacific II
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2010/mtwp2ins.gif
W. Pacific III
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2010/mtwp3ins.gif
W. Pacifc IV
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2010/mtwp4ins.gif
C. Pacific
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... cpains.gif
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dwsqos2
Re: Season Cancel!
Well, if our problem is vertical instability, then we need colder temperatures aloft. So, I guess that we could use some upper troughs or less mid and upper level ridging in general.
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Re: Season Cancel!
Higher SST anomalies are certainly more prevalent in our basin this year with respect to other basins. So the fuel is there, just no spark. It will be interesting how this all plays out in the next few weeks. So far I am not convinced that we will see much more activity in October, even though our basin has all the heat and logic would tell us that eventually it needs to be released.
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Re: Season Cancel!
Dr. Jeff Masters:
Forecast of the rest of hurricane season
We are past the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically peaks on September 10. On average, about 60% of the activity has occurred by this point in the season. Since we've already had 14 named storms and 3 hurricanes, at the current rate, we would expect to see another 8 or 9 named storms, with 1 or 2 of them reaching hurricane strength. It's pretty tough to maintain the sort of activity levels we've seen so far this year, so I am forecasting we'll see 7 more named storms during the remainder of this season, taking us all the way to "W" in the alphabet. With the unusually stable air over the Atlantic showing no signs of abating, I predict that we'll see just 2 of these storms reach hurricane strength. As far as steering currents go, the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model doesn't show any significant changes to the jet stream pattern we've seen all summer. There will continue to be a parade of troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast that will tend to curve any storms northwards and then northeastwards out to sea, once they penetrate north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. This pattern favors strikes on North Carolina and New England, and discourages strikes on Texas. I doubt Texas will see a tropical storm this year given this steering pattern, and considering that Texas' tropical cyclone season tends to peak in late August and early September. It is quite unusual for Texas to have a tropical storm or hurricane this late in the season, so they will probably have to look elsewhere for drought-busting rains.
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Forecast of the rest of hurricane season
We are past the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically peaks on September 10. On average, about 60% of the activity has occurred by this point in the season. Since we've already had 14 named storms and 3 hurricanes, at the current rate, we would expect to see another 8 or 9 named storms, with 1 or 2 of them reaching hurricane strength. It's pretty tough to maintain the sort of activity levels we've seen so far this year, so I am forecasting we'll see 7 more named storms during the remainder of this season, taking us all the way to "W" in the alphabet. With the unusually stable air over the Atlantic showing no signs of abating, I predict that we'll see just 2 of these storms reach hurricane strength. As far as steering currents go, the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model doesn't show any significant changes to the jet stream pattern we've seen all summer. There will continue to be a parade of troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast that will tend to curve any storms northwards and then northeastwards out to sea, once they penetrate north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. This pattern favors strikes on North Carolina and New England, and discourages strikes on Texas. I doubt Texas will see a tropical storm this year given this steering pattern, and considering that Texas' tropical cyclone season tends to peak in late August and early September. It is quite unusual for Texas to have a tropical storm or hurricane this late in the season, so they will probably have to look elsewhere for drought-busting rains.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Folks,
Is "rainstorm" on the verge of a third fantastic seasonal prediction? The 2006 and 2010 duds (for the CONUS) were absolutely nailed. Will 2011 follow suit and be another "season cancel"? If so, I'd then be more than willing to offer congrats (although Irene had a sig. impact thus making 2011 less of a dud than 2010 and 2006). However, I'm not yet ready to do that. Why? Consider the following:
Because I'm anticipating that the fall/winter of 2011-12 will retrospectively (once all of the data has been compiled) be officially classified as a La Nina, I decided to do an analysis of CONUS H hits during +AMO La Nina's and compare this to non-La Nina +AMO seasons since 1877. I concentrated on the period 10/1-15.
Interesting stats:
1) MAJOR CONUS 10/1-15 H hit chance during +AMO MUCH higher if La Nina:
a) Whereas only 2% (only 1 of 57) of non-La Nina 10/1-15 periods had a major CONUS H hit, a respectable nearly 30% (8 of 28) of La Nina 10/1-15 periods had a major CONUS H hit! Another way to look at this: a whopping 8 of 9 +AMO seasons with a major 10/1-15 CONUS H hit were La Ninas. Moreover, 1 of these 8 seasons, 1893, had TWO major hits during 10/1-15!
b) A whopping 69% of the La Nina H hits (9 of 13) were major hits during 10/1-15!
Aside: ZERO -AMO non-La Nina seasons had a 10/1-15 CONUS major H hit!
2) 10/1-15 CONUS H hits much more likely +AMO Nina vs. +AMO non-Nina:
Whereas only ~16% (9 of 57) of non-La Nina 10/1-15 periods had a CONUS hit, a very respectable ~39% (11 of 28) of La Nina 10/1-15 periods had a CONUS H hit. Moreover, 2 of these 8 seasons, 1893 and 1964, had TWO H hits during 10/1-15.
3) W. Caribbean origins +AMO Nina:
Whereas only 9% (1 of 11) of the 9/16-30 La Nina CONUS H hits were first declared a TC in the W. Caribbean, a whopping 69% (9 of 13) of the 10/1-15 La Nina CONUS H hits were first declared a TC in the W. Caribbean.
4) 10/1-15 specific H hit dates +AMO Nina:
Dates of the 13 CONUS H hits during La Ninas: 10/2, 10/2, 10/3, 10/4, 10/4, 10/5, 10/8, 10/11, 10/12, 10/13, 10/14, 10/15, and 10/15. This suggests that the two biggest threat periods per climo may be 10/2-5 and 10/11-15 although the sample sizes are fairly small after breaking up into these shorter intervals.
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So, these stats tell me that those who desire H action, especially major, in/near the CONUS this season will still have a halfway decent opportunity during 10/1-15 based on +AMO La Nina climo.
Is "rainstorm" on the verge of a third fantastic seasonal prediction? The 2006 and 2010 duds (for the CONUS) were absolutely nailed. Will 2011 follow suit and be another "season cancel"? If so, I'd then be more than willing to offer congrats (although Irene had a sig. impact thus making 2011 less of a dud than 2010 and 2006). However, I'm not yet ready to do that. Why? Consider the following:
Because I'm anticipating that the fall/winter of 2011-12 will retrospectively (once all of the data has been compiled) be officially classified as a La Nina, I decided to do an analysis of CONUS H hits during +AMO La Nina's and compare this to non-La Nina +AMO seasons since 1877. I concentrated on the period 10/1-15.
Interesting stats:
1) MAJOR CONUS 10/1-15 H hit chance during +AMO MUCH higher if La Nina:
a) Whereas only 2% (only 1 of 57) of non-La Nina 10/1-15 periods had a major CONUS H hit, a respectable nearly 30% (8 of 28) of La Nina 10/1-15 periods had a major CONUS H hit! Another way to look at this: a whopping 8 of 9 +AMO seasons with a major 10/1-15 CONUS H hit were La Ninas. Moreover, 1 of these 8 seasons, 1893, had TWO major hits during 10/1-15!
b) A whopping 69% of the La Nina H hits (9 of 13) were major hits during 10/1-15!
Aside: ZERO -AMO non-La Nina seasons had a 10/1-15 CONUS major H hit!
2) 10/1-15 CONUS H hits much more likely +AMO Nina vs. +AMO non-Nina:
Whereas only ~16% (9 of 57) of non-La Nina 10/1-15 periods had a CONUS hit, a very respectable ~39% (11 of 28) of La Nina 10/1-15 periods had a CONUS H hit. Moreover, 2 of these 8 seasons, 1893 and 1964, had TWO H hits during 10/1-15.
3) W. Caribbean origins +AMO Nina:
Whereas only 9% (1 of 11) of the 9/16-30 La Nina CONUS H hits were first declared a TC in the W. Caribbean, a whopping 69% (9 of 13) of the 10/1-15 La Nina CONUS H hits were first declared a TC in the W. Caribbean.
4) 10/1-15 specific H hit dates +AMO Nina:
Dates of the 13 CONUS H hits during La Ninas: 10/2, 10/2, 10/3, 10/4, 10/4, 10/5, 10/8, 10/11, 10/12, 10/13, 10/14, 10/15, and 10/15. This suggests that the two biggest threat periods per climo may be 10/2-5 and 10/11-15 although the sample sizes are fairly small after breaking up into these shorter intervals.
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So, these stats tell me that those who desire H action, especially major, in/near the CONUS this season will still have a halfway decent opportunity during 10/1-15 based on +AMO La Nina climo.
Last edited by LarryWx on Mon Sep 19, 2011 5:31 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Season Cancel!
underthwx wrote:Dr. Jeff Masters:
Forecast of the rest of hurricane season
I am forecasting we'll see 7 more named storms during the remainder of this season, taking us all the way to "W" in the alphabet. With the unusually stable air over the Atlantic showing no signs of abating, I predict that we'll see just 2 of these storms reach hurricane strength.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
If this happened, that would make 21 storms and only 5 hurricanes, or less than 24% of storms reaching hurricane strength. That would be pathetic, for since 1950, the lowest hurricane to storm ratio I could find was 33%: such as '83 (2 H to 6 TS); and more recently '09, 3 to 9. The average over the past 30 years is 53%.
Dr. Masters did not say if he thought either of the 2 hurricanes would reach major status, but by his comments, I don't think he thinks that will happen. Let's assume we go the rest of the year without a major hurricane. The MH to storm ratio will be 9.5%. Using the last 30 years as an average, it should be about 22%.
Right now, the ACE is at 72, or around 5.14 per storm. Let's say that ratio holds. That brings the season to 108, above average, but a normal season has about 7.66 ACE per storm (last 30 years), which means, had this been a statistically "normal" season, the ACE should have been about 107.24 by now and end up with about 160.86.
The average ACE is 33% lower than a "normal" season right now.
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Last edited by bg1 on Mon Sep 19, 2011 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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dwsqos2
Re: Season Cancel!
Exactly, this season is completely pedestrian; there's been nothing special about it at all. I don't care if there is another landfall. Gray and Klotzbach and all the other long range forecasters give forecasts for seasonal activity, and right now a nearly dead on average season seems most likely.
I judge seasons solely based on ACE generated; you show me 1992, 1991, and 2007; I call them below average. You show me 2010; I call it above average.
I don't care if we reach Alpha; we had to pass the painfully boring Jose and Franklin to get there. I like hurricanes; I like them lots. I don't check wide views of the Atlantic basin daily in order to see Joses and Franklins.
2011: the year of the flood and the year of the dud
Yes, I'm annoyed.
Oh, and I'm sick of hearing about the much vaunted "western basin." It's rare to see a hyperactive season without a fair amout of help from the Atlantic east of 60W. I just needed to toss that in there.
If you held a gun to my head, based on Nina/+AMO climo, then I would expect a hurricane to form somewhere in the Atlantic basin post-Oct 1. Even the pathetic 2007 season managed that.
[/end dwsqos2 frustration]
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I judge seasons solely based on ACE generated; you show me 1992, 1991, and 2007; I call them below average. You show me 2010; I call it above average.
I don't care if we reach Alpha; we had to pass the painfully boring Jose and Franklin to get there. I like hurricanes; I like them lots. I don't check wide views of the Atlantic basin daily in order to see Joses and Franklins.
2011: the year of the flood and the year of the dud
Yes, I'm annoyed.
Oh, and I'm sick of hearing about the much vaunted "western basin." It's rare to see a hyperactive season without a fair amout of help from the Atlantic east of 60W. I just needed to toss that in there.
If you held a gun to my head, based on Nina/+AMO climo, then I would expect a hurricane to form somewhere in the Atlantic basin post-Oct 1. Even the pathetic 2007 season managed that.
[/end dwsqos2 frustration]
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Season Cancel!
Here are the eight +AMO La Nina seasons since 1877 with at least one 10/1-15 CONUS major H hit (actually nine total hits):
1886, 1893 (had two), 1894, 1898, 1949, 1954 (Hazel), 1964 (Hilda), 1995 (Opal)
Going back to 1877, there have been only two other major CONUS hits during 10/1-15, i.e., during the other 106 seasons!! They were in 1877 and 1909. 1909 was a La Nina.
So, nine major 10/1-15 hits during the 28 +AMO Nina seasons and only two during the other 106 seasons!! Anyone see a decent correlation?
1886, 1893 (had two), 1894, 1898, 1949, 1954 (Hazel), 1964 (Hilda), 1995 (Opal)
Going back to 1877, there have been only two other major CONUS hits during 10/1-15, i.e., during the other 106 seasons!! They were in 1877 and 1909. 1909 was a La Nina.
So, nine major 10/1-15 hits during the 28 +AMO Nina seasons and only two during the other 106 seasons!! Anyone see a decent correlation?
Last edited by LarryWx on Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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rainstorm
Re: Season Cancel!
LarryWx wrote:Here are the eight +AMO La Nina seasons since 1877 with at least one 10/1-15 CONUS major H hit (actually ten total hits):
1886, 1893 (had two), 1894, 1898, 1949, 1954 (Hazel), 1964 (had two, Hilda and Isbell), 1995 (Opal)
Going back to 1877, there have been only four other major CONUS hits during 10/1-15, i.e., during the other 106 seasons!! They were in 1877, 1909, 1941, and 1948.
So, 10 major 10/1-15 hits during the 28 +AMO Nina seasons and only four during the other 106 seasons!! Anyone see a decent correlation?
interesting info. one note of caution is time after time ridges have been forecast to appear, then they dont.
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:Look at all of the recurves == Big Eastern CONUS trough for 2011...
lots of action in the Caribbean islands and Mexico, little if any for the CONUS yet again.
Gator,
Good point. However, another +AMO La Nina season, 1995, despite its numerous storms, had had only one CONUS cat. 1 hit, Erin, and many recurves as of 9/30. Then along came a storm named Opal! The season is still far from over climowise. I know you know this.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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