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HurricaneWarning92 wrote:There is no floater up for either system (99L & 98L)...
That's a big surprise to me and I bet an even bigger surprise to wxman57!Extratropical94 wrote:Woohoo, code red at 2AM:
1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Invest 98L In The Central Atlantic:
I’m keeping a close eye on an intensifying low pressure system that is currently located around 1425 miles east of the Windward Islands. Satellite loops indicate that this system, designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center, has become better organized overnight and it appears that 98L may become a tropical depression or a tropical storm within the next day or two. Most of the global model guidance do develop 98L into a tropical storm over the next few days, however, the GFS and European models forecast that this system will weaken into a tropical wave as it tracks across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean from Friday into Saturday.
Analyzing the environment around Invest 98L this morning, conditions are favorable for development and I do think we will see this develop into a tropical depression either later today or on Tuesday and then a tropical storm by about Wednesday. After that, it appears that the ridge of high pressure to the north of this system will strengthen causing 98L to accelerate in forward speed and the entire system outrunning itself and decoupling; causing it to weaken into a tropical wave as it gets into the eastern Caribbean late this week.
For those of you in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago, please be aware that tropical storm conditions are a possibility starting Thursday night and continuing through all day Friday before slowly diminishing on Saturday.
Meso wrote:From the looks of the GFS and the EURO conditions are decent in the near future but look to be hostile as the system heads into the Caribbean. Both models develop it into a TD or weak TS and then weaken it and dissipate it once it heads into the Caribbean. I'd imagine possible shear?
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