ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
8 AM TWO:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
06z GFDL goes to a Tropical Storm just south of PR. HWRF does not do anything at the 06z run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Okay, here goes. I hope this is not considered off-topic, and I'm not trying to be inflammatory, but I'm curious. As of right now, there are three registered members besides me on the active storms discussion. There was one other besides me at Talkin' Tropics. There have been many members who have (repeatedly and vigoursly) insisted that their interest (and everyone else's interest should be) in tracking and discussing tropical systems whether they are a landfall threat or not. My question: So, where is everyone? I know that all we have right now are two possible systems, but even when Maria was active it was like this. As one who doesn't know enough to make too many comments about what is going on in the tropics I mostly content myself with reading others more in the know. Right now, I could get more information about the tropics from the weather section of my newspaper. What's going on here?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
12z Best Track
AL, 98, 2011091812, , BEST, 0, 110N, 352W, 25, 1009, LO
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
AL, 98, 2011091812, , BEST, 0, 110N, 352W, 25, 1009, LO
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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- ouragans
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
this is just north of the previous position. it this linked to 97L canibalization? what about the vicinity of 99L?
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Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
- Extratropical94
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12Z Models - waaayyy more conservative in intensity:
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 181220
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110918 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110918 1200 110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 35.2W 11.8N 36.3W 12.5N 37.7W 13.3N 39.6W
BAMD 11.0N 35.2W 11.7N 35.9W 12.4N 36.8W 13.2N 38.0W
BAMM 11.0N 35.2W 11.6N 36.3W 12.1N 37.4W 12.7N 38.8W
LBAR 11.0N 35.2W 11.5N 35.7W 12.3N 36.9W 13.5N 38.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110920 1200 110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 42.2W 16.1N 48.4W 17.9N 55.6W 19.5N 62.4W
BAMD 14.2N 39.7W 16.4N 43.4W 18.0N 46.3W 18.7N 47.9W
BAMM 13.3N 40.7W 14.7N 45.3W 15.9N 50.4W 16.9N 55.3W
LBAR 15.0N 41.0W 18.7N 45.8W 22.6N 49.1W 25.5N 51.0W
SHIP 46KTS 43KTS 32KTS 27KTS
DSHP 46KTS 43KTS 32KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 35.2W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 31DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 35.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The gfs is trending weaker with this and every other disturbance; that tends to be a bad sign if one is hoping for a TC.
I can't decide which non-positive ENSO season is my most hated: this one or 2007.
I can't decide which non-positive ENSO season is my most hated: this one or 2007.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
This is the predict team analizing Pouch P28L/98L.
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 091800.txt
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P28L.html
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 091800.txt
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P28L.html
SYNOPSIS 2011091800
P28L … 98L
9N, 37W
700 hPa
Using a phase speed of zero, or close to zero. Models keep 98L stationary, or even moving eastward for the first two days. I want to make sure that I am tracking the correct pouch during the critical early period, especially given the potential interaction with nearby 97L to the east. The subsequent westward motion, then is not being accurately depicted. The pouch position during the following three days should be about 30-60 miles farther north than is plotted.
ECMWF: Consistent with yesterday: Quasi-stationary as an ITCZ circulation for two days, then moves westward. Phase speed is based upon the first two slow days, so the position on Days 3-5 is a little too far south. The approaching P29L/97L does not appear to merge with or be absorbed by P28L/98L; rather 97L just seems to dissipate.
GFS: Very similar to ECMWF.
UKMET: Similar to ECMWF & GFS, but moves westward faster starting on Day 3. (So the position then is shifted even more south than it should be.)
NOGAPS: Similar to UKMET, with an erroneous southward shift of the positions on Days 3-5. Hovmoller of v700 does not portray the early stationary motion. Used a phase speed of zero.
HWRF-GEN: Similar to ECMWF and GFS.
ECMWF 0.0 v700 120h
GFS 0.0 v700 120h
UKMET -0.9 v700 120h
NOGAPS 0.0 v700 120h
HWGEN 0.0 v700 120h
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
it look like invest 99 affecting invest 98 untill 99 move more alway we could see weak 98
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ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Dear 98L,
Our coast is nice this time of year. Just a suggestion.
Love,
Texas
Our coast is nice this time of year. Just a suggestion.
Love,
Texas
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- Extratropical94
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1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
WeatherWiseGuy wrote:Okay, here goes. I hope this is not considered off-topic, and I'm not trying to be inflammatory, but I'm curious. As of right now, there are three registered members besides me on the active storms discussion. There was one other besides me at Talkin' Tropics. There have been many members who have (repeatedly and vigoursly) insisted that their interest (and everyone else's interest should be) in tracking and discussing tropical systems whether they are a landfall threat or not. My question: So, where is everyone? I know that all we have right now are two possible systems, but even when Maria was active it was like this. As one who doesn't know enough to make too many comments about what is going on in the tropics I mostly content myself with reading others more in the know. Right now, I could get more information about the tropics from the weather section of my newspaper. What's going on here?
I think it's too far away to get people's attention right now...
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Note: Opinions expressed are my own. Please look to the NHC for the most accurate information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
WeatherWiseGuy wrote:Okay, here goes. I hope this is not considered off-topic, and I'm not trying to be inflammatory, but I'm curious. As of right now, there are three registered members besides me on the active storms discussion. There was one other besides me at Talkin' Tropics. There have been many members who have (repeatedly and vigoursly) insisted that their interest (and everyone else's interest should be) in tracking and discussing tropical systems whether they are a landfall threat or not. My question: So, where is everyone? I know that all we have right now are two possible systems, but even when Maria was active it was like this. As one who doesn't know enough to make too many comments about what is going on in the tropics I mostly content myself with reading others more in the know. Right now, I could get more information about the tropics from the weather section of my newspaper. What's going on here?
well you did post at 8:15 on a Sunday morning...not a lot of net traffic at ANY site that day and time...I see at least 20 people logged on right now
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- Extratropical94
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Re:
gmr548 wrote:Dear 98L,
Our coast is nice this time of year. Just a suggestion.
Love,
Texas
Like!
No seriously, you're right. Texas N E E D S a rainmaker storm immediately, Don was a laugh and both Lee and Nate refused to come anywhere near the TX coastline.
But as usual, the despair caused by drought combined with the current mid-September enthusiasm and hope for anything to brew down there might just kill the storm.
So far we've seen that hoping or preaching for tropical activity in a certain area doesn't really work.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- cycloneye
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Re: Re:
Extratropical94 wrote:gmr548 wrote:Dear 98L,
Our coast is nice this time of year. Just a suggestion.
Love,
Texas
Like!
No seriously, you're right. Texas N E E D S a rainmaker storm immediately, Don was a laugh and both Lee and Nate refused to come anywhere near the TX coastline.
But as usual, the despair caused by drought combined with the current mid-September enthusiasm and hope for anything to brew down there might just kill the storm.
So far we've seen that hoping or preaching for tropical activity in a certain area doesn't really work.
To let know both posters,I moved these posts to the discussion thread from the models thread.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
18z Best Track
AL, 98, 2011091818, , BEST, 0, 113N, 358W, 25, 1009, LO
AL, 98, 2011091818, , BEST, 0, 113N, 358W, 25, 1009, LO
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
18z Tropical Models.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 181819
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110918 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110918 1800 110919 0600 110919 1800 110920 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 35.8W 12.0N 36.9W 12.8N 38.4W 13.5N 40.4W
BAMD 11.3N 35.8W 11.8N 36.7W 12.4N 37.7W 13.0N 39.2W
BAMM 11.3N 35.8W 11.9N 36.9W 12.5N 38.0W 13.1N 39.5W
LBAR 11.3N 35.8W 11.9N 36.6W 13.0N 38.2W 14.3N 40.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110920 1800 110921 1800 110922 1800 110923 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 43.1W 15.8N 49.6W 17.1N 57.1W 18.2N 64.6W
BAMD 13.7N 40.9W 15.3N 44.9W 16.5N 48.7W 17.4N 51.8W
BAMM 13.8N 41.5W 15.0N 46.1W 16.0N 51.2W 17.0N 56.3W
LBAR 16.1N 42.3W 19.8N 46.5W 23.6N 48.8W 26.0N 49.3W
SHIP 38KTS 35KTS 29KTS 27KTS
DSHP 38KTS 35KTS 29KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 35.8W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 35.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- southerngale
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
WeatherWiseGuy wrote:Okay, here goes. I hope this is not considered off-topic, and I'm not trying to be inflammatory, but I'm curious. As of right now, there are three registered members besides me on the active storms discussion. There was one other besides me at Talkin' Tropics. There have been many members who have (repeatedly and vigoursly) insisted that their interest (and everyone else's interest should be) in tracking and discussing tropical systems whether they are a landfall threat or not. My question: So, where is everyone? I know that all we have right now are two possible systems, but even when Maria was active it was like this. As one who doesn't know enough to make too many comments about what is going on in the tropics I mostly content myself with reading others more in the know. Right now, I could get more information about the tropics from the weather section of my newspaper. What's going on here?
I think you already got a couple of good answers. You posted this at 8:15 on a Sunday morning (7:15 my time) and 98L is still pretty far out there. There are 50 people viewing the Active Storms forum at this moment and football is on. It's not surprising that a lot of people would be enjoying the football games and/or a Sunday afternoon with family or friends. We're not talking about a hurricane, tropical storm, or even a TD at this point. It's a code yellow invest and isn't currently threatening anyone. If signs continue to point toward development, so will the interest.
And to state the obvious... sure, some people's interest is in any system, whether it threaten land or not, but the overwhelming majority of people are only interested in a system that may affect them or someone they know. That's just the way it is and it isn't going to change anything to try and call people out for not having more interest. It is what it is.
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