WPAC: SONCA - Severe Tropical Storm (19W)

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 170307
TCSWNP

A. 19W (SONCA)

B. 17/0232Z

C. 25.1N

D. 146.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASED ON CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE RAGGED EYE WITH OW
RING. PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

16/2350Z 24.7N 147.6E AMSU


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

this is about 85 knots 1 minute winds already!




The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Macrocane]

What an interesting little system, it's structure is beautiful, it has to be upgraded to typhoon intensity soon (both JMA and JTWC).

[euro6208]

:eek: What an interesting little system, it's structure is beautiful, it has to be upgraded to typhoon intensity soon (both JMA and JTWC).

jtwc will be late of course. why does jtwc like to use old dvorak estimates for current warnings?

clearly, dvorak always lead jtwc ...

[euro6208]

still intensifying!!! i say 100 knots!!


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[somethingfunny]

I wouldn't go as far as 100kts but 75kt would not be unreasonable. It's most certainly not the 50kt in the most recent JTWC warning.

[phwxenthusiast]

haha well Dvorak's now up to 4.0... if that doesn't get it to typhoon status, then i don't know what will...

[RL3AO]

At least 85 it 1 min IMO

[phwxenthusiast]

meh JTWC just up to 60kts... let's hope that diurnal max will work wonders tonight so it can push this towards that typhoon threshold...

[RL3AO]

Must be bring your IMD forecaster to work day.

[dexterlabio]

This should already be a TY by now, maybe around 70-80kts? There is no way that a TS could have that eye..yeah some TS in the past displayed eye feature or proto-eyewall but not something like this.

[Extratropical94]

Typhoon per JTWC:

WTPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 012
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 26.4N 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 28.9N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 32.1N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 35.8N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 39.1N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 43.4N 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 144.0E.
TYPHOON 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Even thou JTWC has it as Typhoon,we wait for the official agency (JMA) for the classiffications.

[Extratropical94]

Even thou JTWC has it as Typhoon,we wait for the official agency (JMA) for the classiffications.

Yup, I know. JMA at 55kt, but not forecasting it to become a typhoon.

Code: Select all

<Analyses at 17/12 UTC>
Scale   -
Intensity   -
Center position   N26°25'(26.4°)
   E144°30'(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement   WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure   985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more   ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more   NE300km(160NM)
   SW220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 18/00 UTC>
Intensity   -
Center position of probability circle   N29°25'(29.4°)
   E142°30'(142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement   NNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure   985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle   90km(50NM)
Storm warning area   ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity   -
Center position of probability circle   N32°40'(32.7°)
   E142°10'(142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement   N 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure   985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle   160km(85NM)
Storm warning area   ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity   -
Center position of probability circle   N37°35'(37.6°)
   E147°20'(147.3°)
Direction and speed of movement   NE 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure   990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle   330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity   -
   LOW
Center position of probability circle   N42°05'(42.1°)
   E160°30'(160.5°)
Direction and speed of movement   ENE 50km/h(28kt)
Central pressure   994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed   20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle   460km(250NM)

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/Quote]

OK the JMA is underestimating Sonca too, IMO it looks like a typhoon 10-min and 1-min winds, JMA should have 65 kt and JTWC 80 kt, it's a small tropical cyclone and Dvorak is not good in these cases. I wonder why there is no RECON in this area, I'm sure that Japan could develop very good technologies to do it.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[Extratropical94]

JMA still being stubborn at 18Z: 55 knots - forecast to hold that strength then weaken

Center position N27°25'(27.4°)
E143°25'(143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE370km(200NM)
SW190km(100NM)

JTWC carries it as a typhoon at 18/21Z - 65 knots - expected to reach 70:

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 26.4N 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 144.5E

[phwxenthusiast]

wow, as much as i respect these guys, this is just laughable...

[Extratropical94]

Just made this:


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