#2383 Postby Maritimer71 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 1:11 pm
FXCN31 CWHX 161800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM NDT
FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2011.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 PM NDT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.30 PM NDT, HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
46.7 N AND LONGITUDE 54.2 W, ABOUT 35 NAUTICAL MILES OR 65 KM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ARGENTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS ( 120 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 984
MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 KNOTS ( 93 KM/H ).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
SEP 16 3.30 PM 46.7N 54.2W 984 65 120
SEP 16 9.30 PM 50.6N 49.4W 985 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17 3.30 AM 56.3N 45.1W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS RAPIDLY BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL, WITH DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND AN INCREASINGLY
RAGGED APPEARANCE, ITS RECENT TRAVERSAL NEAR SOME OFFSHORE WEATHER
BUOYS INDICATE IT STILL HAS A TIGHT TROPICAL CORE WITH A VERY STRONG
WIND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR ITS CENTRE. THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN
MARIA AS A MARGINAL HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL, WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE SHORTLY AFTER THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED. MARIA IS SPEEDING ALONG
AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS, AND WITH THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IT IS
CLEAR THAT MARIA'S CIRCULATION IS TILTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THIS HAS MADE PINPOINTING MARIA'S EXACT SURFACE POSITION DIFFICULT,
BUT AN 11Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS ALLOWED A GOOD CENTRE FIX WHICH WHEN
EXTRAPOLATED TO VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGERY GAVE A BETTER INDICATION
OF MARIA'S CENTRE - WHICH WAS JUST SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO - A WEATHER BOUY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND
BANKS REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 67 KNOTS (124 KM/H) AT 1:30 PM NDT.
B. PROGNOSTIC
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSPHY. BASED ON THE FOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE FIX AND INITIAL TRAJECTORY, MARIA'S TRACK WAS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, MAKING THE PROBABLE LANDFALL LOCATION SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF ST. MARY'S
BAY.
THEREAFTER ALL NWP GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT WITHIN 12
HOURS AFTER LANDFALL VIRTUALLY ALL OF MARIA'S REMAINING ENERGY WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN WHAT WILL BECOME A LARGE AND VERY STRONG
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF LABRADOR.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
16/18Z 200 240 150 120 100 180 40 50 20 40 20 0
17/00Z 250 280 180 150 120 200 60 50 0 0 0 0
17/06Z 300 300 300 200 100 200 80 50 0 0 0 0
END/BORGEL/FOGARTY
0 likes