Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[CaptinCrunch]

I think September will have some 100 degree days, but I don't think several. I don't see any more 100+ degree streaks past 2-3 days in a row, once we get out of this one.


At least, I hope.

100 degree days for September 3-5. Remember it can still hit 100+ in October in Texas

Still no 100s showing up in the long term forecast, but it might be close a few days. Sadly, I know we can hit the 100 degree mark well into October, but I still don't see "several" 100 degree days left, which is what I was referring too.

Like NTXW, I can't wait 'til our first threat of winter weather. Staying up all night model/window watching.

Hi of 103 yesterday (tied record of 69 100+ days in a year), 105 forecasted for today (record Hi is 100)(day 70), and 103 for tomorrow (Day 71) another record breaker. After that the next 2 weeks look to be cooler, BUT, we could see 1 more spurt of 100+ degree days the first week or Oct (2 max) then I think we will be done with the 100 degree days this yr.

[downsouthman1]

Has anyone noticed the ULL off SoCal that's producing copious amounts of rain there? It is not being seen by either the NAM or GFS effectively. I find that quite interesting. It's an El Nino type of system in a La Nina type pattern.

[CaptinCrunch]

The Hi temp yesterday at DFW was 107 smashing the old record of 100, and set a new record of being the hottest temp this late in the season. Today the Hi temp is forcasted to be 100, and if we hit it it will make it day 71 of 100+ temps this year.

[Rgv20]

Okay I did a little bit of research as to which years would be good analog years for this upcoming winter season and IMO 1950-51,1956-57,1971-72,1974-75,1989-90,and 2008-09 could mirror this winter season. Also I wont be surprise if we would get a Severe Arctic Front during this winter season. Does Dec 1989 bring memories?

This map represents the Temperature Anomalies from Nov thru Jan.



This map represents the Precipitation Anomalies from Nov thru Jan.

[Portastorm]

Interesting analog years. Why did you pick them?

Personally, my thoughts are along the same track but I think the Southern Plains are going to be colder than what you're showing. I think the Arctic Oscillation is going to overwhelm the Nina pattern a good bit in December and January and cause us (Texas) to end up average to maybe even a bit below average.

[Rgv20]

:uarrow:

Interesting analog years. Why did you pick them?

Personally, my thoughts are along the same track but I think the Southern Plains are going to be colder than what you're showing. I think the Arctic Oscillation is going to overwhelm the Nina pattern a good bit in December and January and cause us (Texas) to end up average to maybe even a bit below average.

I used a couple of websites to get some info on past El and La Nina patterns. But like you say there are different factors in play that can disturb the Nina signal example being for the eastern and Central U.S. in which a Negative NAO phase would bring more cold outbreaks to the region and above normal snowfall in the Mid Atlantic States.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/201108/SST_table.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nh


Well anyway if any Professional Met would agree on at least one of my Analog years I would be the happiest man in Texas!!

[Ntxw]

I have been hearing a lot about 08-09 being big analog years. I am a bit hesitant to jump on that boat. Like Portastorm said one has to account for other overwhelming factors as well. My personal preference would be 1956-1957 with similar AO and NAO (that I am thinking will be negative come Dec-Jan) values and accounting for drought as well.

[lrak]

is this what to expect this winter for precipitation.

[gboudx]

T-Mac = La Nina
Bradley = Texas

[Portastorm]

Oh, aren't you guys cute with your little basketball videos!

The Portastorm Weather Center believes below average precipitation for this winter is a very good bet.

[CaptinCrunch]

Add another 100 drgree day to the total as we hit 100 yesterday for 71 days at or above 100 this year. That also makes 3 100 degree days for september which is what I had foreseen.

[somethingfunny]

For everybody's researching pleasure.... detailed snowfall totals from DFW for every winter since 1898-1899.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dmosnow

Take a look at the Dust Bowl years.

Don't take a look at the 1950s.

[newtotex]

Just wanted to know how accurate FA is when it comes to these? Would be great for Texas if this came to fruition!

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2 ... -forecast/

[gboudx]

Just wanted to know how accurate FA is when it comes to these? Would be great for Texas if this came to fruition!

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2 ... -forecast/

Yeah would be great. I think they went against the meteorological grain last Winter and came out ahead. But it could a case of the blind squirrel finding a nut.

I wonder what the wooly worms, acorns and whatever other nature forecasts are saying?

[gpsnowman]

I have heard and read now a potentially strong cold front should hit the DFW area in 7-8 days with much cooler air in store. Anyone with more detailed info let us know. Lets get the Winter Weather thread going!

[Ntxw]

I have heard and read now a potentially strong cold front should hit the DFW area in 7-8 days with much cooler air in store. Anyone with more detailed info let us know. Lets get the Winter Weather thread going!

GFS has been showing it and today's EC run kicked in as well. Behind frontal passage temps fall into the 40s and low 50s with a brisk north wind. Places in northern Oklahoma into the low 40s and even 30s verbatim. It would be the first true "cold front" in the sense with temps falling behind it noticeably.



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[Rgv20]

Was going to post this on the Texas summer thread but hey its mid October

Both the Euro and the GFS are advertising high temperatures in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s!!! for deep south Texas for next Wednesday and Thursday.. The only draw back is that it looks like it going to be a dry and windy front..

[gpsnowman]

I have heard and read now a potentially strong cold front should hit the DFW area in 7-8 days with much cooler air in store. Anyone with more detailed info let us know. Lets get the Winter Weather thread going!

GFS has been showing it and today's EC run kicked in as well. Behind frontal passage temps fall into the 40s and low 50s with a brisk north wind. Places in northern Oklahoma into the low 40s and even 30s verbatim. It would be the first true "cold front" in the sense with temps falling behind it noticeably.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Thanks Ntxw. Winter is soon approaching and the thread needs to be alive! Weather nerds like my self have been waiting for updates. Frontal passages are great!

[somethingfunny]

Help! I found some artifacts in my closet and I don't know what they are! Can y'all help me identify these objects?

[vbhoutex]