WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

[StormingB81]

[StormingB81]

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 25.6N 133.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 133.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 26.1N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 26.9N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.2N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 27.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 26.4N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.8N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.2N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 133.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING SPOTTY
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
FRAGMENTED FEEDER BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MAIN
CONVECTION. A 141731Z AMSU 89H IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND
THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED IR WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL HAS MOVED OVER TS 18W AND HAS INCREASED THE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TS 18W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
SUBSIDING EFFECT OF THE TUTT CELL. AFTER TAU 48, A WEAK MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT UNTIL A NEW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM EASTERN CHINA AND
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA. THERE IS
LARGE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AFTER
TAU 96 DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA. TS 18W INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED BY THE TUTT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
48 AFTER WHICH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS
AND SLOWER DUE TO A CONTINUED ERRONEOUS POLEWARD PULL BY WBAR AND
THE FASTER TRACK SPEEDS OF GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND
152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

It is trying to better organize

[StormingB81]

The back and forth continues..This morning they passed we will not recieve winds over 50 knots....it seems it changes every new update that comes out..

[phwxenthusiast]

has anybody here seen the 03z update from JTWC?? mine seems to be outdated, even the map...

[dexterlabio]

There are now some spots of convection in the center, maybe a signal that further consolidation is under way. The coverage of this system is huge IMO, if the circulation is completely filled with convection we can see how wide the area that this storm covers, with the feeder bands extending just east of Luzon.

[Typhoon Hunter]

has anybody here seen the 03z update from JTWC?? mine seems to be outdated, even the map...

JTWC not updating for me either!

[StormingB81]

JTWC just been updated...50knots or greater are no longer forecasted for Okinawa:

WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 25.4N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 132.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 25.9N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.4N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.8N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.6N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.1N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.6N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.1N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 131.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z
IS 17 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Up to 40kts from JMA - ugliest 40kts TS I've ever seen! Guess they're "over cooking" intensity since it's near Okinawa, if this was in SCS it would likely be a warned TD

[Typhoon Hunter]

Disturbing trend emerging on ECMWF runs now for Roke to intensify into a strong typhoon and hit areas recently devastated by typhoon Talas. Worth watching to see if the trend continues.

[StormingB81]

James...look like the first punch maybe weak but looks like Okinawa may get some stronger winds if tha trun validates itself..and yes that would be bad for areas still hurting from Talas!

[Typhoon Hunter]

James...look like the first punch maybe weak but looks like Okinawa may get some stronger winds if tha trun validates itself..and yes that would be bad for areas still hurting from Talas!

Yeah! You're going to have to watch this one carefully, especially once the environment becomes favourable and it starts cranking up. Going to be a wet and blustery few days ahead for Okinawans!

[phwxenthusiast]

Minami-Daito is reporting a min. pressure of around 990mb... pretty deep for a paltry storm...

[StormingB81]

Storm just did a jog to the SW...does it want to follow the path at all..lol and wonder how that will effect the overall path

[StormingB81]

jtwc has it at 35 knots

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 25.7N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 26.3N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.8N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.7N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.4N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.9N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.0N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 25.8N 131.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND DRY AIR IS
WRAPPING INTO THE CORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND THE 150000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT A TUTT CELL IS DIRECTLY OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, TS 18W APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, YET A 141700Z AMSU CROSS SECTION
REVEALS THAT A WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY PERSISTS. A 150429Z AMSRE
SERIES CONFIRMS THAT DESPITE THE WANING DEEP CONVECTION, THE LLCC IS
HOLDING TOGETHER WELL. 27 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT, AND THERE IS ALMOST NO VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LACK OF CONVECTION IS CAUSING AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES TO LAG ACTUAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A 150031Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS 30 KNOT
WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RYUKYUS. TS 18W IS BEING STEERED WESTWARD BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ANTICYLONE EXISTS JUST OFF-SHORE OF TOKYO. THE ANTICYCLONE IS PART
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING SEAWARD WHILE WEAKENING. AS
IT DOES SO, TS 18W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. BEGINNING NEAR TAU 36,
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SURGE BACK OVER THE NORTHERN RYUKYUS,
DRIVING THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE. TS 18W WILL REMAIN IN
A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK
WILL INCREASE BY ONE TO TWO DEGREES, THUS THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO
MILD INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. THE LARGE SIZE,
COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND RELATIVELY LOW INTENSITY OF TS
18W HAVE RESULTED IN UNUSUALLY POOR MODEL GUIDANCE THUS FAR. THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO ECMWF, GFDN AND EGRR THAN
CONSENSUS, AS CONSENSUS IS BEING SKEWED BY GFS AND NOGAPS, WHICH
MAKE SHARP AND TURNS AWAY FROM THE MAIN BODY OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

[rdhdstpchld]

TCCOR3 as of 2100L

[StormingB81]

TCCOR3 as of 2100L

I am a little suprised at this since it looks like we wouldnt see 50 knot winds but better to be safe then sorry

[RobWESTPACWX]

This system is going to be a rainmakerr for sure, it is rather dry yet the island just East of Okinawa saw 84mm of rainfall today, on top of that the outflow with it could go up North and hit the areas effected by Talas.

Even if the winds have come down, I feel the rain will be an impact.

Any how just my thoughts, now I'm off for the night, busy day!

[StormingB81]

SYstem for once is actually starting to look pretty good! it looks like it has been taking off during the night!