#10 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 4:07 pm
WTPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141421ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 154.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 154.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.8N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.0N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.0N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.2N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.8N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 33.3N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 37.3N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 154.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED
UNDER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE, PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A 141550Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE AMSR-E IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 141026Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 25-30
KNOT WINDS AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. TD 19W IS
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CREATED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 160E.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR TAU 24 AS THE
STR BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH. TD 19W IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE EAST
OF JAPAN AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO JAPAN. TD 19W IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 96 AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED (NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAR, GFS) BUT IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT. TD 19W IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY DUE TO GENERALLY
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 141421Z SEP 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN22 PGTW 141430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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