ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

That suggest we have a vigorous lower-level system even though it is a piece of garbage in the mid and upper levels. Kinda like Andrew before bombing out - had winds of like 50 kt with a pressure around 1015.

[floridasun78]

so maria could become two part one in carribbean one in atlantic ? i see nhc dont think that could happen

[CrazyC83]

Based on that data, I would guess Maria's intensity is 50 kt despite the fact it looks like nothing.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 101552
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 20 20110910
154230 1810N 06012W 9574 00455 0088 +211 +191 118043 044 040 003 00
154300 1811N 06011W 9580 00451 0089 +210 +184 116044 045 039 003 00
154330 1812N 06010W 9581 00450 0089 +213 +189 119046 048 039 001 01
154400 1813N 06009W 9579 00453 0090 +213 +191 120047 048 041 001 00
154430 1814N 06008W 9585 00449 0091 +213 +188 120045 047 039 001 00
154500 1815N 06007W 9578 00456 0092 +215 +195 122046 048 039 001 00
154530 1816N 06005W 9578 00458 0094 +213 +195 122045 047 041 003 03
154600 1817N 06004W 9581 00455 0094 +214 +193 123047 048 041 002 00
154630 1818N 06003W 9584 00454 0096 +210 +191 121045 047 041 001 01
154700 1818N 06002W 9580 00459 0098 +206 +196 122045 046 040 001 00
154730 1819N 06001W 9578 00461 0101 +197 +195 124045 047 041 003 01
154800 1820N 06000W 9574 00466 0102 +196 +195 121042 044 041 003 01
154830 1820N 06000W 9574 00466 0102 +201 +185 120043 044 040 003 00
154900 1822N 05958W 9580 00462 0102 +209 +182 120041 043 039 002 00
154930 1823N 05957W 9578 00463 0101 +212 +193 121044 046 039 002 00
155000 1824N 05955W 9586 00457 0102 +213 +181 119042 045 038 000 00
155030 1825N 05954W 9579 00465 0103 +212 +186 123040 044 037 002 01
155100 1826N 05953W 9583 00461 0103 +210 +188 120040 042 037 003 00
155130 1827N 05952W 9583 00463 0105 +209 +188 121043 044 037 002 01
155200 1828N 05951W 9583 00461 0106 +208 +192 121044 045 038 000 05
$$

[Cranica]

NHC's getting its seasonal intensity verification killed with this storm.

REcon found 55 kts SFMR

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeep

[dwsqos2]

Even the weak Euro solution more or less kept this alive as a TC for a few days, a weak one, but still a TC.

The ULL didn't really come out of nowhere. Yesterday, it looked like Maria's outflow was being undercut by winds from it. Also, it isn't really unusual for models to weaken upper troughs too quickly. See Katia as a really recent example.

[artist]

wide view thru 20

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 101602
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 21 20110910
155230 1829N 05950W 9583 00463 0107 +205 +194 119043 045 037 001 05
155300 1830N 05949W 9578 00467 0107 +204 +189 121045 046 036 003 00
155330 1831N 05948W 9577 00471 0108 +204 +190 123040 043 035 002 01
155400 1833N 05947W 9574 00471 0109 +202 +184 115037 041 037 005 01
155430 1834N 05946W 9588 00459 0110 +197 +194 103039 041 041 005 01
155500 1835N 05945W 9583 00464 0112 +192 +185 100039 040 040 005 01
155530 1836N 05945W 9578 00469 0113 +186 +184 102037 039 039 008 00
155600 1837N 05944W 9579 00467 0115 +186 +178 105038 040 040 008 01
155630 1838N 05943W 9579 00469 0114 +189 +173 102040 040 040 007 00
155700 1839N 05942W 9583 00466 0114 +191 +171 104041 042 039 007 01
155730 1840N 05941W 9584 00466 0116 +185 +170 104043 043 042 008 00
155800 1841N 05940W 9578 00472 0116 +188 +175 105042 043 040 009 00
155830 1842N 05939W 9579 00472 0118 +185 +171 110041 045 039 011 00
155900 1844N 05938W 9579 00473 0119 +180 +173 110039 041 039 011 01
155930 1845N 05937W 9583 00469 0120 +182 +173 111039 040 036 011 00
160000 1846N 05936W 9581 00474 0119 +193 +165 112039 039 035 008 00
160030 1847N 05935W 9578 00475 0119 +197 +167 116034 036 036 007 01
160100 1848N 05934W 9584 00471 0119 +197 +165 109035 036 035 005 00
160130 1849N 05934W 9579 00475 0118 +201 +168 104037 039 033 005 00
160200 1850N 05933W 9577 00478 0118 +201 +165 109032 033 033 005 00
$$
;

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 101600
97779 15584 70187 59708 04700 11041 19179 /9771
41135
RMK AF308 0414A MARIA OB 04
SWS = 39 KTS
.............................................
decoded

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 16:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 04

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 15:58Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 18.7N 59.7W
Location: 418 miles (672 km) to the E (87°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 470 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 110° at 41 knots (From the ESE at ~ 47.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 17°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
925 mb Surface Altitude: 771 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 110° at 35 knots (From the ESE at ~ 40.2 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 39 knots (~ 44.9mph)

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 101613
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 22 20110910
160230 1851N 05932W 9587 00466 0120 +193 +171 104033 035 036 005 01
160300 1853N 05931W 9580 00476 0120 +198 +172 105034 036 034 005 01
160330 1854N 05930W 9576 00479 0119 +205 +171 108034 035 033 003 00
160400 1855N 05929W 9586 00471 0120 +205 +171 108035 035 033 001 00
160430 1856N 05928W 9671 00414 0135 +213 +181 107033 034 033 001 00
160500 1857N 05927W 9746 00342 0137 +221 +183 106033 034 033 003 00
160530 1858N 05926W 9756 00332 0136 +221 +184 105031 032 033 001 00
160600 1859N 05925W 9761 00329 0136 +220 +189 100031 033 033 002 01
160630 1900N 05924W 9752 00339 0138 +218 +200 107033 034 034 001 01
160700 1901N 05923W 9755 00340 0139 +220 +197 107031 032 032 002 00
160730 1903N 05922W 9755 00337 0140 +219 +194 105030 031 032 001 00
160800 1904N 05921W 9760 00331 0140 +217 +200 102032 035 034 002 00
160830 1905N 05920W 9755 00337 0140 +216 +200 108031 032 032 001 01
160900 1906N 05919W 9759 00334 0141 +219 +203 111031 032 032 002 00
160930 1907N 05918W 9756 00339 0142 +219 +200 111031 034 032 002 01
161000 1908N 05917W 9750 00347 0144 +220 +201 112031 032 031 002 00
161030 1910N 05915W 9759 00340 0145 +219 +190 110032 034 033 001 00
161100 1911N 05914W 9753 00344 0146 +220 +192 107030 032 033 001 00
161130 1912N 05913W 9756 00342 0146 +216 +201 106031 033 033 000 00
161200 1913N 05912W 9758 00340 0146 +215 +194 108030 032 032 000 01
$$

[LarryWx]

you mean this flow... that is east to west.. trough the carribean ....

Aric,
I'm wondering if there is anything of sig. that will be left of the "feet" of Maria and if it will survive as a sep. entity. If so, I'm would it have a shot at surviving the often hostile E. Caribbean while potentially moving pretty much westward for a few days. If so, would it have a shot at regenerating as a newly named TC further west? If so, I think it could easily get trapped below that big sfc high that the models say will reach the E US around 9/16 and lingers until the 20th. If so, there could be fun and games then. Opinion?

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 101623
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 23 20110910
161230 1914N 05911W 9753 00347 0148 +212 +202 106029 030 029 000 01
161300 1916N 05910W 9756 00342 0147 +213 +199 100030 030 029 001 00
161330 1917N 05909W 9758 00342 0148 +209 +200 099029 030 033 002 01
161400 1918N 05908W 9757 00342 0150 +206 +200 104027 029 033 006 01
161430 1919N 05907W 9758 00343 0150 +211 +194 102029 030 032 004 01
161500 1921N 05906W 9756 00344 0149 +210 +196 100029 031 033 003 01
161530 1922N 05905W 9758 00342 0150 +209 +193 104029 031 032 002 03
161600 1923N 05903W 9756 00344 0150 +207 +192 107030 032 032 003 00
161630 1923N 05902W 9758 00342 0151 +207 +188 106031 032 033 003 00
161700 1924N 05900W 9757 00344 0151 +205 +189 105029 030 031 003 00
161730 1925N 05859W 9759 00345 0151 +209 +187 105030 031 033 001 01
161800 1926N 05858W 9754 00347 0151 +209 +193 108029 030 031 001 00
161830 1927N 05856W 9758 00344 0152 +207 +190 110028 029 030 001 01
161900 1927N 05855W 9756 00345 0152 +207 +192 112029 029 027 001 00
161930 1928N 05853W 9758 00345 0153 +209 +193 112029 030 026 000 00
162000 1929N 05852W 9758 00347 0153 +209 +197 107024 026 025 001 01
162030 1930N 05851W 9755 00349 0155 +206 +194 111022 023 026 000 01
162100 1931N 05849W 9756 00349 0156 +207 +188 112023 025 025 001 00
162130 1931N 05848W 9757 00349 0156 +207 +194 109022 023 027 002 01
162200 1932N 05846W 9758 00348 0156 +208 +191 107022 023 027 000 01
$$

[artist]

seems the further northeast recon goes the higher the pressure and the lesser the winds. They are still in the 20's and 30's kts range, though.

[dwsqos2]

seems the further northeast recon goes the higher the pressure and the lesser the winds. They are still in the 20's and 30's kts range, though.

That tends to be how most areas of low pressure behave.

[artist]

thru 23

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 101632
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 24 20110910
162230 1933N 05845W 9755 00351 0157 +205 +193 109021 022 030 003 01
162300 1934N 05843W 9757 00350 0158 +211 +188 110023 024 031 003 00
162330 1934N 05842W 9754 00352 0158 +209 +193 107025 026 029 004 00
162400 1935N 05840W 9759 00349 0157 +216 +189 106028 029 031 003 00
162430 1936N 05839W 9755 00352 0158 +213 +183 106023 024 029 004 00
162500 1937N 05837W 9757 00350 0159 +210 +175 111022 023 029 004 01
162530 1938N 05836W 9756 00351 0160 +204 +173 104020 022 030 006 00
162600 1939N 05835W 9759 00347 0161 +196 +177 102019 022 033 010 03
162630 1940N 05834W 9763 00347 0165 +178 +174 113019 020 040 012 00
162700 1941N 05833W 9759 00349 0165 +176 +172 113018 019 040 014 01
162730 1943N 05832W 9756 00352 0163 +189 +170 112016 018 036 008 00
162800 1944N 05830W 9757 00351 0161 +196 +169 108018 019 031 010 00
162830 1945N 05829W 9754 00354 0161 +206 +168 113019 021 027 006 01
162900 1947N 05828W 9757 00351 0160 +213 +173 109021 023 027 005 00
162930 1948N 05827W 9757 00352 0159 +218 +168 112024 025 030 003 01
163000 1949N 05826W 9755 00354 0159 +219 +165 114025 026 030 004 03
163030 1950N 05825W 9750 00358 0159 +219 +165 111023 023 029 008 00
163100 1951N 05823W 9758 00351 0158 +219 +169 110022 022 033 009 00
163130 1951N 05822W 9755 00354 0158 +219 +171 113021 021 031 008 00
163200 1952N 05820W 9755 00355 0159 +215 +166 106021 022 033 010 01

[artist]

CrownWeather - I see you out there! What is your take on Maria, if you don't mind answering.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 101642
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 25 20110910
163230 1952N 05819W 9755 00354 0158 +219 +176 108022 023 029 009 00
163300 1953N 05817W 9760 00348 0158 +221 +174 103023 023 029 008 00
163330 1953N 05815W 9750 00358 0159 +220 +175 110023 023 028 007 00
163400 1954N 05814W 9763 00350 0161 +226 +179 113023 023 031 006 01
163430 1954N 05812W 9745 00367 0162 +228 +183 117021 022 030 006 00
163500 1955N 05810W 9761 00354 0164 +230 +184 114021 022 026 006 03
163530 1955N 05808W 9755 00359 0164 +225 +191 111020 021 026 004 00
163600 1955N 05807W 9756 00356 0164 +225 +194 110019 020 024 004 00
163630 1955N 05805W 9754 00363 0167 +228 +199 111020 021 028 002 00
163700 1956N 05803W 9757 00358 0164 +234 +205 109021 022 024 002 01
163730 1956N 05801W 9757 00356 0164 +232 +205 102023 024 020 002 03
163800 1958N 05800W 9752 00363 0164 +228 +203 100025 026 /// /// 05
163830 1959N 05801W 9757 00358 0166 +225 +211 096025 025 022 000 03
163900 2000N 05804W 9761 00357 0165 +227 +217 095025 025 024 000 05
163930 2000N 05806W 9634 00453 0154 +227 +217 094026 027 023 001 00
164000 2000N 05808W 9277 00795 0155 +208 //// 098024 024 025 001 01
164030 1959N 05811W 8899 01167 //// +179 //// 110027 028 026 004 01
164100 1959N 05813W 8500 01552 //// +154 //// 117027 027 027 006 05
164130 1959N 05815W 8193 01865 //// +134 //// 115030 032 030 006 05
164200 1958N 05817W 7903 02171 //// +119 //// 119034 036 032 006 01
$$
;

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 101640
97779 16384 70200 58000 03100 09025 23218 /0017
40825
RMK AF308 0414A MARIA OB 05
SWS = 23 KTS
..................................................................

decoded

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 16:40Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 16:38Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 20.0N 58.0W
Location: 538 miles (865 km) to the ENE (78°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 90° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 21°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1017 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 80° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 23 knots (~ 26.5mph)

[artist]

thru 25