ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#1941 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:16 am

URNT15 KNHC 101512
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 16 20110910
150230 1636N 06135W 9579 00441 0073 +220 +211 247006 006 012 000 01
150300 1637N 06134W 9580 00440 0073 +220 +202 242006 006 013 000 00
150330 1639N 06132W 9581 00437 0072 +220 +212 238006 006 012 000 01
150400 1640N 06131W 9580 00438 0072 +221 +199 241006 007 012 000 00
150430 1641N 06130W 9581 00437 0071 +223 +205 243005 005 014 000 00
150500 1642N 06129W 9581 00437 0071 +220 +203 224005 005 010 000 00
150530 1643N 06128W 9580 00437 0071 +220 +206 227005 006 011 000 01
150600 1644N 06126W 9580 00437 0070 +220 +202 218005 005 013 000 01
150630 1645N 06125W 9582 00434 0070 +220 +199 205004 005 014 000 00
150700 1647N 06124W 9580 00437 0070 +220 +209 188004 005 012 000 00
150730 1648N 06123W 9579 00437 0070 +220 +206 192006 007 012 000 01
150800 1649N 06122W 9583 00433 0070 +220 +205 188007 008 011 000 01
150830 1650N 06121W 9574 00441 0071 +219 +202 189007 008 011 001 00
150900 1651N 06119W 9581 00436 0074 +218 +208 181007 008 011 000 00
150930 1652N 06118W 9580 00436 0070 +219 +208 175008 008 013 000 00
151000 1653N 06117W 9580 00435 0069 +220 +206 169009 009 012 000 01
151030 1655N 06116W 9580 00434 0068 +221 +200 174009 010 015 000 00
151100 1656N 06115W 9581 00433 0069 +220 +205 169011 011 013 000 00
151130 1657N 06113W 9588 00445 0079 +220 +202 171012 013 014 000 01
151200 1657N 06113W 9588 00445 0068 +220 +209 169013 014 017 000 01
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#1942 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:19 am

That out-of-nowhere ULL just zapped Maria.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1943 Postby hcane27 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:27 am

Not really sure it was out of nowhere. There are many examples of just such a feature "left behind" after a hurricane passes around a break in the steering high. Cannot tell you the absolute physics of the cuase , just have ssen it over the years of watching.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#1944 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:29 am

URNT15 KNHC 101522
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 17 20110910
151230 1659N 06111W 9581 00433 0069 +221 +208 168015 016 019 000 00
151300 1700N 06110W 9578 00436 0067 +225 +211 173017 017 020 000 01
151330 1702N 06109W 9580 00434 0067 +225 +206 174018 018 018 000 01
151400 1703N 06108W 9580 00434 0067 +221 +210 170020 020 016 000 00
151430 1704N 06107W 9581 00449 0069 +220 +207 169021 021 016 000 01
151500 1705N 06105W 9580 00434 0067 +221 +202 165022 023 019 000 01
151530 1707N 06104W 9582 00448 0073 +223 +205 165021 023 020 000 00
151600 1708N 06103W 9578 00434 0070 +220 +202 168021 022 019 000 00
151630 1709N 06102W 9581 00448 0083 +223 +207 170022 023 020 000 01
151700 1711N 06101W 9580 00434 0066 +225 +205 171023 024 020 000 01
151730 1712N 06100W 9577 00434 0071 +225 +216 171024 024 021 000 05
151800 1713N 06059W 9577 00434 0068 +225 +203 170025 025 024 000 01
151830 1715N 06058W 9582 00446 0078 +224 +200 171024 024 021 002 01
151900 1717N 06057W 9578 00433 0072 +225 +204 169023 024 021 000 00
151930 1718N 06057W 9580 00449 0075 +225 +213 166020 021 019 000 01
152000 1719N 06056W 9586 00444 0078 +225 +211 166020 021 021 000 00
152030 1721N 06055W 9578 00435 0075 +221 +211 164020 021 019 001 03
152100 1723N 06054W 9584 00445 0076 +221 +203 163020 020 021 001 01
152130 1724N 06054W 9585 00445 0077 +221 +205 160019 020 024 002 01
152200 1726N 06053W 9583 00445 0077 +221 +204 164022 022 023 004 01
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#1945 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:29 am

Hmm now that Maria is very very weak (to the point that she looks just like a tropical wave), wouldnt that cause her to move more westward?
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Re:

#1946 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:30 am

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Hmm now that Maria is very very weak (to the point that she looks just like a tropical wave), wouldnt that cause her to move more westward?


That's what I am thinking. The central and western Caribbean are prime for development looking at shear maps, the western Caribbean is practically a bomb factory.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon Discussion

#1947 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:32 am

I thought I was going to be able to post obs for the entirety of the mission. Alas, it was not to be. Someone please take over.
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#1948 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:34 am

So what exactly is going on with Maria?

LLC moving west/MLC moving north?
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Re:

#1949 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:35 am

AdamFirst wrote:So what exactly is going on with Maria?

LLC moving west/MLC moving north?


Seems that way. The MLC is headed for a dead zone while the LLC would be headed for a prime area.
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Re: Re:

#1950 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:35 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Hmm now that Maria is very very weak (to the point that she looks just like a tropical wave), wouldnt that cause her to move more westward?


That's what I am thinking. The central and western Caribbean are prime for development looking at shear maps, the western Caribbean is practically a bomb factory.


Yep. i have to agree with you... maybe she wont feel the effects of that trough since shes so weak (she wasnt expected to be so at this time)... so she'll just keep on moving west.
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Re: Re:

#1951 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:37 am

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Hmm now that Maria is very very weak (to the point that she looks just like a tropical wave), wouldnt that cause her to move more westward?


That's what I am thinking. The central and western Caribbean are prime for development looking at shear maps, the western Caribbean is practically a bomb factory.


Yep. i have to agree with you... maybe she wont feel the effects of that trough since shes so weak (she wasnt expected to be so at this time)... so she'll just keep on moving west.


That would leave Maria with a chance to recharge on the best conditions in the Atlantic Basin if she keeps going west.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1952 Postby cpdaman » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:39 am

12z models will be entertaining aric will be my source for potential suprises w this thing unless until models have a center to track
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#1953 Postby cpdaman » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:41 am

is there significant vorticity along southern part of this thing that makes it a central /west carib threat
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#1954 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:42 am

URNT15 KNHC 101532
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 18 20110910
152230 1727N 06053W 9578 00435 0074 +217 +206 160019 021 025 007 00
152300 1729N 06052W 9576 00436 0077 +211 +205 148016 018 027 007 00
152330 1731N 06052W 9580 00449 0078 +212 +201 144015 016 026 005 01
152400 1732N 06051W 9588 00444 0079 +206 +196 133014 015 027 003 03
152430 1733N 06050W 9577 00436 0074 +208 +194 136017 018 026 003 01
152500 1735N 06049W 9582 00432 0074 +205 +194 126022 024 030 005 01
152530 1736N 06049W 9577 00435 0076 +212 +189 124025 026 033 005 01
152600 1737N 06048W 9583 00446 0084 +209 +188 120023 025 036 009 01
152630 1739N 06047W 9574 00441 0082 +190 +175 115021 023 042 012 01
152700 1740N 06046W 9578 00435 0074 +187 +176 121019 020 038 014 00
152730 1741N 06045W 9588 00444 0084 +203 +178 120026 028 037 007 00
152800 1742N 06044W 9574 00440 0074 +203 +172 126030 031 039 005 01
152830 1744N 06043W 9586 00446 0086 +195 +177 125035 037 038 005 05
152900 1745N 06042W 9578 00437 0076 +185 +171 126038 038 043 009 01
152930 1746N 06041W 9582 00433 0080 +183 +165 118038 039 045 011 01
153000 1747N 06040W 9580 00435 0081 +178 +166 127043 048 044 012 01
153030 1748N 06039W 9576 00439 0081 +182 +168 131043 046 055 020 00
153100 1748N 06037W 9601 00436 0086 +182 +170 124048 051 052 022 01
153130 1749N 06036W 9574 00442 0080 +184 +155 124047 048 047 015 00
153200 1750N 06035W 9581 00437 0079 +187 +162 126048 049 042 013 00
$$
Last edited by artist on Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#1955 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:43 am

Image
thru 18
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#1956 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:44 am

REcon found 55 kts SFMR
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#1957 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:45 am

URNT15 KNHC 101542
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 19 20110910
153230 1751N 06034W 9585 00433 0078 +195 +157 128049 050 042 012 00
153300 1752N 06033W 9584 00434 0080 +191 +159 128046 048 043 011 00
153330 1753N 06032W 9580 00440 0081 +186 +168 132047 048 044 015 00
153400 1754N 06031W 9579 00442 0081 +191 +164 130046 048 043 012 00
153430 1755N 06030W 9581 00441 0085 +199 +161 128048 049 042 005 01
153500 1756N 06028W 9577 00445 0081 +206 +166 129047 049 041 004 01
153530 1757N 06027W 9577 00445 0080 +209 +169 126043 047 037 004 00
153600 1758N 06026W 9586 00438 0080 +213 +168 124043 044 038 001 00
153630 1759N 06025W 9576 00447 0080 +212 +171 123044 045 040 005 01
153700 1800N 06024W 9574 00450 0082 +206 +182 119047 050 040 004 00
153730 1801N 06023W 9590 00435 0081 +212 +187 120051 052 041 003 01
153800 1802N 06022W 9576 00448 0081 +212 +180 117049 050 042 001 00
153830 1803N 06021W 9578 00447 0083 +212 +178 118050 051 041 002 01
153900 1803N 06021W 9578 00447 0085 +207 +183 119048 049 041 004 00
153930 1805N 06019W 9581 00446 0085 +205 +180 119047 049 041 002 00
154000 1805N 06018W 9583 00445 0087 +206 +183 117045 047 039 004 01
154030 1806N 06016W 9580 00449 0086 +213 +186 119046 047 041 003 01
154100 1807N 06015W 9576 00452 0086 +214 +186 120047 047 040 003 01
154130 1808N 06014W 9577 00451 0087 +211 +188 121046 047 040 005 00
154200 1809N 06013W 9580 00450 0088 +210 +176 121046 047 039 005 01
$$
;
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#1958 Postby wyq614 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:47 am

I don't quite understand why the weaker Maria is, the more northwest and northward the forecast and models indicate.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1959 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:51 am

artist wrote:
cpdaman wrote:lets c if there is enough vorticity w the southern part of the wave/maria that is moving more westward that could spin up

yeah, it is gonna be interesting to see what happens with it.
When do the next models run?

if i not wrong round 2pmest
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#1960 Postby wyq614 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:52 am

Actually I'm thinking of the possibility that Maria split into two systems, the north one meanders and may dissipate while the south one become a tropical wave moving westward?
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