WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Depression (17W)
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- WestPACMet
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OOOO, well then I pronounced it wrong in my last video. A well, I tried to refrain from saying as much as possible.
So JTWC most recent warning keeps intensity maxed out at 50kts, JMA still holds it at 35kts. Given how exposed it is right now I think the lower number is more logical.
So JTWC most recent warning keeps intensity maxed out at 50kts, JMA still holds it at 35kts. Given how exposed it is right now I think the lower number is more logical.
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- WestPACMet
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Re:
RobWESTPACWX wrote:OOOO, well then I pronounced it wrong in my last video. A well, I tried to refrain from saying as much as possible.
So JTWC most recent warning keeps intensity maxed out at 50kts, JMA still holds it at 35kts. Given how exposed it is right now I think the lower number is more logical.
I noticed that -- but it's ok - the rest of the information more than makes up for it - the panic-mongers are starting already around here...
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- WestPACMet
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm (17W)
Latest ASCAT Imagery
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
WTPQ20 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 25.5N 133.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 28.7N 130.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 100600UTC 30.7N 127.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 110600UTC 32.3N 125.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 25.5N 133.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 28.7N 130.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 100600UTC 30.7N 127.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 110600UTC 32.3N 125.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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- WestPACMet
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm (17W)
Well JTWC has now backed off on intensity and is more alignment with JMA.
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm (17W)
Instances like this make me love Euro medium-term model runs even more. Haha. I thought this is gonna be a typhoon but seems like the euro solution was right with the harsh environment along Kulap's path, hindering further development. Well euro's been doing a nice job for some years now even in ATL, like a boss...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
JTWC satellite bulletin indicates a greater-than-climatological weakening rate of W1.5/24H:
TPPN11 PGTW 081209
A. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP)
B. 08/1132Z
C. 26.5N
D. 132.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.5/W1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE SHEAR OF 170NM
TO SE YIELDS A 1.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/1121Z 23.1N 135.5E SSMS
BELMONDO
TPPN11 PGTW 081209
A. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP)
B. 08/1132Z
C. 26.5N
D. 132.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.5/W1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE SHEAR OF 170NM
TO SE YIELDS A 1.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/1121Z 23.1N 135.5E SSMS
BELMONDO
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WTPQ20 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 26.3N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 29.7N 129.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 101200UTC 31.2N 127.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 111200UTC 32.7N 126.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 26.3N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 29.7N 129.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 101200UTC 31.2N 127.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 111200UTC 32.7N 126.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm (17W)
well that was quick!
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