ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BigA]

I think this may be.more dangerous in the long run if it is a wave.rather than a storm. As a wave it is more likely to continue westward. until it might redevelop.

[wxman57]

Will this change the model runs if she has opened up into a wave? Seems like the possibility exists for her to run west a lot further as a disorganized mess, and if/when she gets a new LLC initialized, will we have a whole new game on?

First of all, whether it's an open wave or a TS will not change the impact on the islands of the eastern Caribbean. But it does diminish the potential for any significant change in strength over the next 24-36 hours.

Steering currents (at least predicted by GFS) indicate that it won't matter much whether it has a closed circulation or not as far as the track.

Here's a plot of the recon reports with arrows indicating wind directions. Hard to pick anything out as being THE LLC.

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 091358
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 29 20110909
134900 1332N 05810W 8427 01578 0095 +185 +112 136003 005 031 003 00
134930 1333N 05811W 8427 01576 0096 +181 +113 120008 009 028 004 00
135000 1335N 05812W 8425 01581 0099 +179 +116 108006 007 030 006 00
135030 1336N 05813W 8423 01581 0098 +180 +116 117007 007 031 008 00
135100 1337N 05814W 8424 01581 0096 +186 +114 123005 007 033 006 00
135130 1339N 05815W 8421 01586 0095 +187 +117 136005 006 031 004 00
135200 1340N 05816W 8424 01585 0098 +181 +123 129006 007 031 008 00
135230 1342N 05817W 8426 01582 0099 +180 +119 112007 007 033 005 00
135300 1343N 05818W 8425 01582 0106 +170 +126 136008 009 035 008 00
135330 1344N 05819W 8430 01575 0111 +160 +129 110006 008 037 008 00
135400 1346N 05820W 8424 01579 0110 +158 +124 092006 006 037 008 00
135430 1347N 05821W 8422 01581 0120 +141 +126 103010 014 044 032 03
135500 1349N 05822W 8429 01576 0114 +149 +135 109008 009 053 026 03
135530 1350N 05823W 8418 01585 0103 +166 +132 094005 007 042 016 00
135600 1351N 05824W 8420 01583 0104 +163 +131 053008 012 035 009 00
135630 1353N 05825W 8422 01578 0099 +170 +128 057012 015 036 006 00
135700 1354N 05826W 8421 01580 0104 +165 +133 076010 012 036 008 00
135730 1355N 05827W 8438 01563 0103 +168 +131 090010 011 033 008 00
135800 1357N 05828W 8408 01597 0109 +157 +133 066009 014 035 017 00
135830 1358N 05829W 8422 01579 0110 +159 +132 043015 017 038 008 03

[artist]

obs 29

[westwind]

looks like a west pacific monson depression to me -lots of strong relatively disorganised convection, several vorticies but no real LLC.
kind of halfway bettween a wave and a storm?

[wxman57]

I think this may be.more dangerous in the long run if it is a wave.rather than a storm. As a wave it is more likely to continue westward. until it might redevelop.

Might continue westward for a while, but if you saw the predicted steering currents in the NW Caribbean and Gulf 3-4 days from now then you'd be predicting it would move inland into Nicaragua - a south of west track in a few days. Strong high building over the Gulf and extending down into the Caribbean by early next week.

[dwsqos2]

Every storm in the deep tropics this year has had issues with fast low-level flow.

So on September 9th we have a dying hurricane, a dissipating tropical storm, and a storm of non-tropical origins in the Bay of Campeche.

[painkillerr]

As usual, the nhc gets yelled at for calling it a tropical storm and they would be getting blasted if they were calling it a wave...still seems like it has a circulation to me, what difference does what it is called have to do to where it is headed i think is more important

I rather have the NHC classify it as a TS even if it is on the very weak side. The vast majority of the population will rely on that information and will pay attention. If they degrade the system at this point, (even if it's well deserved) the people will write it off and if it resurges later, they won"t be prepared.

[SouthFLTropics]

Every storm in the deep tropics this year has had issues with fast low-level flow.

So on September 9th we have a dying hurricane, a dissipating tropical storm, and a storm of non-tropical origins in the Bay of Campeche.

And yet we are on pace to have a potential record breaking season...How crazy is that???

SFT

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091408
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 30 20110909
135900 1359N 05830W 8425 01582 0102 +174 +127 056014 015 033 004 00
135930 1400N 05831W 8417 01587 0103 +172 +132 058015 016 031 003 00
140000 1401N 05833W 8430 01576 0103 +173 +128 053015 015 030 000 03
140030 1402N 05834W 8422 01584 0104 +172 +123 058016 017 027 001 00
140100 1403N 05836W 8411 01594 0103 +175 +124 059017 019 /// /// 03
140130 1403N 05838W 8428 01580 0102 +176 +127 055017 018 028 001 03
140200 1402N 05839W 8424 01582 0099 +182 +121 060017 017 026 000 00
140230 1401N 05841W 8429 01576 0098 +183 +120 060015 015 025 001 03
140300 1401N 05843W 8421 01587 0097 +185 +122 059017 017 025 000 00
140330 1401N 05845W 8424 01582 0098 +181 +124 056018 019 023 001 00
140400 1401N 05847W 8429 01577 0101 +177 +126 058019 019 024 000 03
140430 1401N 05848W 8422 01581 0098 +180 +126 057019 019 025 000 00
140500 1401N 05850W 8423 01580 0097 +183 +128 057020 020 026 000 03
140530 1402N 05852W 8424 01579 0098 +181 +128 058022 023 024 000 03
140600 1402N 05854W 8430 01577 0102 +177 +134 061022 023 019 000 03
140630 1403N 05855W 8424 01581 0099 +179 +134 066020 021 021 000 00
140700 1405N 05856W 8425 01582 0099 +180 +133 065018 019 020 000 00
140730 1406N 05856W 8423 01581 0098 +176 +133 070019 020 019 000 03
140800 1408N 05857W 8425 01580 0099 +175 +130 067020 020 019 000 03
140830 1410N 05857W 8425 01580 0099 +180 +130 066021 022 019 000 03
$$

[Aric Dunn]

Will this change the model runs if she has opened up into a wave? Seems like the possibility exists for her to run west a lot further as a disorganized mess, and if/when she gets a new LLC initialized, will we have a whole new game on?

First of all, whether it's an open wave or a TS will not change the impact on the islands of the eastern Caribbean. But it does diminish the potential for any significant change in strength over the next 24-36 hours.

Steering currents (at least predicted by GFS) indicate that it won't matter much whether it has a closed circulation or not as far as the track.

Here's a plot of the recon reports with arrows indicating wind directions. Hard to pick anything out as being THE LLC.

[img]http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Maria3.gif[/im]

well only problem with the image is that data closest to barbados they were not at operational so most of that near barbados when they came in is not accurate. I agree its not easy to find but still appears to be closer to barbados if anywhere....

also I agree it does not matter if it were a wave or TS the current steering is basically the same through the mid levels... however the gfs as consistently been wrong with the track in the short term over the last couple days turning too much wnw because it kept initializing the ridging to weak. a more westerly track is likely through today and tomorrow should start to see some more wnw motion.


Looking at recent recon ... looks to be near 13.5N 58W if anywhere.. its of course broad and weak..

[artist]

obs 30

[artist]

wide view for perspective

[Aric Dunn]

12Z NAM showing a good deal more ridging building NE of the Bahamas and build the Atlantic ridge farther west.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091418
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 31 20110909
140900 1411N 05858W 8424 01585 0098 +180 +130 066022 023 019 000 03
140930 1413N 05858W 8425 01579 0099 +179 +131 062022 022 020 000 03
141000 1414N 05859W 8425 01578 0100 +175 +133 062022 022 020 000 03
141030 1416N 05900W 8425 01580 0101 +175 +134 060022 023 021 000 00
141100 1417N 05900W 8425 01581 0099 +175 +132 060020 020 021 000 03
141130 1419N 05901W 8425 01580 0099 +177 +132 062020 021 021 000 03
141200 1420N 05902W 8426 01580 0099 +176 +132 067020 021 022 000 00
141230 1422N 05903W 8427 01577 0098 +180 +131 067021 023 020 000 00
141300 1423N 05904W 8424 01584 0098 +179 +131 068020 020 019 000 03
141330 1424N 05905W 8425 01580 0098 +180 +130 061020 020 020 000 03
141400 1426N 05906W 8425 01582 0099 +176 +129 062021 021 021 000 03
141430 1427N 05907W 8424 01582 0101 +176 +128 068023 023 021 000 03
141500 1428N 05908W 8425 01578 0101 +177 +126 070023 025 021 000 03
141530 1430N 05909W 8425 01581 0104 +171 +129 070025 026 022 000 03
141600 1431N 05910W 8424 01585 0105 +171 +128 069026 027 023 000 00
141630 1432N 05911W 8425 01583 0105 +170 +127 069026 027 022 000 03
141700 1434N 05912W 8426 01582 0105 +173 +126 070026 027 022 000 00
141730 1435N 05913W 8425 01584 0102 +177 +126 069027 027 020 000 03
141800 1437N 05914W 8423 01583 0102 +175 +134 067024 026 023 000 00
141830 1438N 05915W 8418 01587 0102 +174 +134 068023 024 024 001 03
$$

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 091415
XXAA 59148 99137 70579 04237 99009 25814 03504 00079 25418 06005
92764 22626 07004 85500 18641 08502 88999 77999
31313 09608 81341
61616 AF306 0214A MARIA OB 08
62626 SPL 1374N05794W 1343 MBL WND 05007 AEV 20802 DLM WND 07004
008842 WL150 05505 084 REL 1375N05794W 134133 SPG 1375N05794W 134
349 =
XXBB 59148 99137 70579 04237 00009 25814 11850 18641 22842 17446
21212 00009 03504 11971 04509 22916 09003 33857 11004 44842 03002
31313 09608 81341
61616 AF306 0214A MARIA OB 08
62626 SPL 1374N05794W 1343 MBL WND 05007 AEV 20802 DLM WND 07004
008842 WL150 05505 084 REL 1375N05794W 134133 SPG 1375N05794W 134
349 =
;

[artist]

obs 31

[wxman57]

If there's a center at 13.5N/58W, then Barbados' wind just 90 miles WSW is blowing precisely away from the LLC (ENE at 10 kts).

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091428
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 32 20110909
141900 1439N 05915W 8432 01574 0104 +173 +137 068022 024 030 003 03
141930 1441N 05916W 8416 01590 0104 +175 +132 072023 024 032 001 03
142000 1443N 05916W 8424 01584 0105 +174 +126 075022 023 031 000 00
142030 1444N 05916W 8425 01583 0106 +173 +129 069024 025 030 000 00
142100 1446N 05916W 8399 01611 0109 +166 +141 073023 025 042 008 00
142130 1447N 05916W 8432 01575 0114 +156 +138 070022 023 040 009 00
142200 1449N 05916W 8424 01582 0106 +171 +134 068026 028 037 002 00
142230 1451N 05916W 8424 01583 0105 +174 +128 073024 025 034 000 00
142300 1452N 05916W 8425 01580 0105 +175 +129 077027 027 032 000 00
142330 1454N 05916W 8422 01586 0105 +174 +127 079026 027 029 000 00
142400 1455N 05917W 8425 01581 0105 +170 +126 079026 026 030 000 03
142430 1457N 05917W 8425 01583 0108 +170 +126 065026 026 032 000 03
142500 1459N 05917W 8424 01584 0104 +175 +122 068025 026 033 000 03
142530 1500N 05917W 8425 01581 0105 +176 +121 073026 026 032 000 00
142600 1502N 05917W 8424 01584 0107 +172 +120 072026 026 032 000 00
142630 1503N 05917W 8426 01582 0108 +171 +119 074025 026 033 000 00
142700 1505N 05917W 8432 01584 0111 +174 +119 073025 026 033 000 03
142730 1506N 05916W 8416 01592 0106 +175 +120 069024 025 036 000 03
142800 1506N 05915W 8426 01582 0105 +176 +120 071023 023 035 000 03
142830 1506N 05913W 8425 01586 0105 +176 +119 069026 027 036 000 00
$$

[Aric Dunn]

If there's a center at 13.5N/58W, then Barbados' wind just 90 miles WSW is blowing precisely away from the LLC (ENE at 10 kts).

I agree its weak and not well defined but I made an image of the best place for it.