ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[PauleinHouston]

http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/8967/174824w5nlsm.gif

That's called the NHC LOL forecast... cause when you have no idea.. it's best just to make a circle


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

NOW That's a gas!!

The more northerly trending though, lends at least a slightly better chance of at least a smidgeon of rain for portions of Texas... think I'll start a new thread called "wishmodeling"

Ok, sorry for the aside...

[Dave]

970
URNT15 KNHC 082015
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 32 20110908
200530 1908N 09253W 8392 01559 //// +140 //// 324040 044 029 012 05
200600 1907N 09255W 8431 01519 //// +134 //// 325050 051 042 011 01
200630 1906N 09256W 8404 01550 0053 +153 //// 323051 052 039 006 05
200700 1905N 09257W 8407 01548 0055 +154 //// 320050 052 039 006 01
200730 1904N 09258W 8412 01545 0055 +160 //// 326048 050 040 004 01
200800 1903N 09300W 8402 01561 0062 +154 //// 325047 048 042 004 01
200830 1902N 09301W 8397 01562 //// +144 //// 320040 046 048 010 05
200900 1901N 09302W 8398 01563 //// +139 //// 314045 048 047 012 01
200930 1900N 09303W 8410 01556 //// +141 //// 326047 048 049 013 05
201000 1859N 09305W 8403 01560 //// +137 //// 325044 048 050 018 01
201030 1859N 09306W 8398 01567 //// +135 //// 327048 051 052 023 05
201100 1857N 09308W 8410 01552 //// +135 //// 328055 060 053 015 05
201130 1856N 09309W 8390 01574 //// +126 //// 313062 065 052 015 01
201200 1854N 09309W 8404 01561 //// +131 //// 313062 064 051 015 01
201230 1853N 09310W 8425 01542 //// +129 //// 308066 069 050 016 01
201300 1851N 09311W 8408 01561 //// +127 //// 307065 066 051 021 01
201330 1849N 09312W 8416 01558 //// +126 //// 307059 061 051 022 05
201400 1849N 09313W 8406 01569 //// +125 //// 309060 062 048 023 05
201430 1848N 09314W 8412 01566 //// +125 //// 305059 062 049 021 01
201500 1847N 09315W 8406 01571 //// +125 //// 306054 054 050 019 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[drezee]

Based on the two recon fixes:

Nate moved 250 degrees (WSW) at 2mph

[Dave]

[AdamFirst]

Must be some sort of funneling effect going on east of the center along the coast of Mexico. Nate doesn't even have a core right now.

Quite bizarre indeed

[SouthFloridawx]

Are there really 80+ mph winds in the SE quad? What is it reduced to?

[Cranica]

That mess of a system is 60kt? After all the tropical storms that couldn't get their act together this year, the one with no core, lopsided convection, and an air mass dryer than the Sahara to its north manages to strengthen. Oy

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082026
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 33 20110908
201530 1845N 09316W 8416 01564 //// +122 //// 303054 054 047 018 01
201600 1844N 09317W 8410 01570 //// +120 //// 306055 056 047 017 01
201630 1843N 09318W 8410 01575 //// +123 //// 306056 057 047 013 01
201700 1842N 09320W 8409 01575 //// +119 //// 303055 059 045 013 01
201730 1841N 09321W 8406 01582 //// +115 //// 297059 060 044 015 01
201800 1840N 09322W 8408 01580 //// +113 //// 297057 058 044 013 01
201830 1839N 09323W 8403 01587 //// +110 //// 297057 059 044 011 01
201900 1838N 09324W 8421 01571 //// +113 //// 296055 059 044 009 01
201930 1837N 09325W 8421 01570 //// +114 //// 302055 056 043 008 01
202000 1836N 09326W 8410 01581 //// +113 //// 300054 056 041 008 01
202030 1835N 09327W 8417 01578 0120 +123 //// 299055 055 041 009 01
202100 1834N 09328W 8409 01585 //// +122 //// 298054 054 039 012 01
202130 1833N 09329W 8414 01581 0120 +124 //// 297052 054 039 010 01
202200 1832N 09330W 8415 01582 0121 +127 //// 294049 049 039 009 01
202230 1831N 09331W 8407 01591 0120 +130 //// 294049 049 039 007 01
202300 1830N 09333W 8408 01589 0121 +130 //// 295049 049 041 006 01
202330 1829N 09334W 8413 01586 0123 +127 //// 296048 050 038 007 01
202400 1828N 09335W 8408 01591 0117 +136 +135 298044 045 038 006 00
202430 1827N 09336W 8409 01589 0124 +128 //// 302044 044 039 007 01
202500 1826N 09337W 8413 01590 //// +121 //// 303043 043 041 008 01
$$
;

[dwsqos2]

Florence 2000 was an absolute mess on satellite when recon found evidence of hurricane winds.

It's a relatively small 995 mb low; 60 knots is realistic. The plane just measured 850 mb winds of 69 knots to the southwest of the center; that's suggestive of about 55 knots, similar to SFMR values in the same region.

[KWT]

Based on the two recon fixes:

Nate moved 250 degrees (WSW) at 2mph

Given the slow motion I really wouldn't put too much faith into the recon fixes, even a 1-2 mile error in the recon center will make a difference in the angle of movement.

Surprisingly strong system but hard to deny this is a hurricane based on the winds being found by recon...

[Dave]

[Dave]

761
URNT15 KNHC 082036
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 34 20110908
202530 1825N 09338W 8413 01588 //// +112 //// 301042 044 039 010 01
202600 1824N 09339W 8414 01589 //// +114 //// 298045 047 039 008 05
202630 1823N 09341W 8405 01601 //// +106 //// 299045 047 037 007 05
202700 1824N 09341W 8412 01590 //// +106 //// 300041 042 036 007 01
202730 1826N 09342W 8417 01592 0135 +126 //// 297042 043 /// /// 05
202800 1826N 09341W 8407 01597 0127 +130 //// 294045 046 035 007 05
202830 1827N 09339W 8410 01589 0122 +131 //// 291046 046 038 006 01
202900 1827N 09336W 8415 01585 0122 +132 //// 291043 045 038 007 01
202930 1827N 09335W 8405 01595 0120 +131 //// 288041 042 038 007 01
203000 1828N 09333W 8416 01584 0120 +132 //// 288043 043 039 006 01
203030 1828N 09331W 8412 01586 0122 +129 //// 288045 045 038 008 01
203100 1829N 09328W 8408 01589 0124 +125 //// 288047 049 040 010 01
203130 1829N 09326W 8418 01578 0126 +122 //// 289048 049 039 012 01
203200 1829N 09324W 8408 01589 0125 +122 //// 290049 050 042 012 01
203230 1830N 09322W 8405 01590 0125 +118 //// 289052 054 040 013 01
203300 1830N 09320W 8413 01580 //// +115 //// 290055 056 040 012 01
203330 1831N 09318W 8408 01585 //// +119 //// 290053 054 042 009 01
203400 1831N 09316W 8413 01579 //// +118 //// 290052 052 042 008 01
203430 1832N 09314W 8413 01578 //// +120 //// 289052 053 041 008 01
203500 1832N 09312W 8405 01584 0106 +126 //// 289055 056 042 009 01
$$
;

[PauleinHouston]

Based on the two recon fixes:

Nate moved 250 degrees (WSW) at 2mph

Given the slow motion I really wouldn't put too much faith into the recon fixes, even a 1-2 mile error in the recon center will make a difference in the angle of movement.

Surprisingly strong system but hard to deny this is a hurricane based on the winds being found by recon...

Agreed KWT...very tightly wound small system with what appears a tight core. Most convection South and West, but appears it's starting to pull some moisture from NW as well. That may be due to the weak ULL at 22N/93W, more or less same place it was yesterday.

[Cranica]

I wasn't doubting the intensity, they could probably have justified hurricane strength with that recon data. It's just surprising.

[Dave]

CORRECTED VDM OBS 8

000
URNT12 KNHC 082039 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152011
A. 08/19:50:30Z
B. 19 deg 42 min N
092 deg 17 min W
C. NA
D. 46 kt
E. 050 deg 46 nm
F. 144 deg 59 kt
G. 050 deg 45 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 20 C / 476 m
J. 23 C / 477 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF300 0215A NATE OB 08 CCA
MAX FL WIND 82 KT SE QUAD 18:15:50Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 69 KT SW QUAD 20:12:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[Dave]

[drezee]

Convection is firing near the center...this may be a gasp to go full 'cane before recon leaves...They are making the SE to NW pass. They foudn the 80kt winds in the SE quad...pressure is falling as well per recon.

[ROCK]

I wonder if land interaction plays a key in this...that is amazing they are finding that high of winds in somewhat disorganized TS....

[KWT]

Possibly Rock, but they are finding good winds on the SW flank as well, which sugtgests its just a lopsided system that maybe is getting some slight helping from frictional tightening.