ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

Just found hdobs 23...

Code: Select all

000
URNT15 KNHC 081911
AF300 0215A NATE               HDOB 23 20110908
183530 1911N 09101W 8429 01568 //// +144 //// 207056 056 040 000 05
183600 1912N 09100W 8432 01565 0108 +146 //// 206055 055 040 000 05
183630 1914N 09059W 8433 01564 0108 +147 //// 204054 055 040 000 01
183700 1916N 09058W 8429 01569 0108 +146 //// 202053 053 039 001 01
183730 1918N 09057W 8430 01567 0110 +143 //// 200054 055 039 000 05
183800 1920N 09056W 8427 01569 0109 +145 //// 200052 053 040 000 05
183830 1921N 09054W 8431 01567 0111 +143 //// 198053 053 041 000 05
183900 1923N 09053W 8431 01569 //// +141 //// 198053 053 041 000 05
183930 1925N 09052W 8433 01567 0113 +141 //// 197050 051 041 000 01
184000 1927N 09051W 8434 01563 0114 +139 //// 196052 053 039 001 05
184030 1929N 09050W 8428 01570 //// +128 //// 195052 053 044 001 01
184100 1930N 09049W 8429 01572 0119 +135 //// 197049 050 043 001 05
184130 1932N 09048W 8429 01570 0116 +139 //// 194049 049 038 000 05
184200 1934N 09047W 8430 01568 0115 +140 //// 194049 050 035 000 01
184230 1936N 09046W 8433 01567 0111 +146 +145 197049 050 033 000 00
184300 1938N 09045W 8429 01572 0112 +146 //// 194049 049 035 000 01
184330 1939N 09044W 8426 01572 0111 +145 //// 191049 049 038 002 01
184400 1941N 09043W 8429 01573 0112 +147 //// 190048 049 036 000 01
184430 1943N 09042W 8431 01569 0111 +150 //// 188048 048 034 000 01
184500 1945N 09041W 8429 01571 0110 +149 //// 190049 049 031 000 05
$$
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[Houstonia]

GFS is the Outlier! Sounds like Lee all over again

Was GFS right about Lee? I don't remember.

GFS was the only one that kept showing Lee going to the Northern Gulf. Euro kept saying Mexico. NWS forecasters kept calling the GFS the outlier and going with the Euro until it finally agreed with the GFS

Dear god let it be the GFS. PLEASE let it be the GFS. Go GFS Go baby!! We are all behind you GFS!!!

[Dave]

Here's the missing 24 now...

Code: Select all

098
URNT15 KNHC 081918
AF300 0215A NATE               HDOB 24 20110908
184530 1947N 09040W 8426 01574 0104 +156 +154 185049 049 031 000 00
184600 1949N 09040W 8434 01567 0105 +158 +156 185049 050 031 000 00
184630 1951N 09040W 8430 01571 0104 +160 +157 185050 050 032 001 00
184700 1953N 09039W 8431 01570 0105 +159 +159 186048 049 034 000 00
184730 1955N 09039W 8433 01568 0105 +158 //// 185048 050 033 000 01
184800 1957N 09038W 8436 01565 0106 +157 //// 184049 050 029 000 01
184830 1959N 09038W 8429 01571 0104 +160 //// 185047 048 026 000 01
184900 2001N 09037W 8424 01576 0101 +165 +164 186045 046 027 000 00
184930 2003N 09037W 8428 01574 0102 +162 //// 185046 047 026 000 01
185000 2005N 09037W 8433 01570 0102 +164 //// 185044 045 026 001 01
185030 2007N 09036W 8432 01570 0104 +159 //// 183043 045 026 000 01
185100 2009N 09036W 8431 01571 0105 +158 //// 182043 044 024 001 01
185130 2011N 09035W 8433 01568 0106 +158 //// 182043 043 022 000 01
185200 2013N 09035W 8429 01572 0104 +160 //// 179042 042 024 000 01
185230 2015N 09035W 8432 01570 0105 +159 //// 180042 043 021 001 05
185300 2017N 09035W 8429 01572 0102 +163 //// 175043 044 023 001 01
185330 2019N 09034W 8431 01571 0102 +165 //// 174044 044 021 000 01
185400 2021N 09034W 8432 01572 0100 +165 //// 171041 042 022 000 01
185430 2023N 09034W 8428 01574 0099 +165 //// 171039 040 022 000 01
185500 2025N 09034W 8430 01573 0101 +165 //// 172040 041 023 000 01
$$
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[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 081915
97779 19124 51210 90900 04800 16017 23222 /9761
41410
RMK AF300 0215A NATE OB 07
SWS = 10 KTS
;

AF 300 coming in from NE to SW.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 081915
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 26 20110908
190530 2101N 09028W 8422 01576 0097 +165 //// 172027 027 006 000 01
190600 2101N 09030W 8418 01581 0100 +164 //// 173028 030 005 000 01
190630 2101N 09031W 8605 01397 0109 +167 //// 176030 031 001 001 01
190700 2101N 09033W 8826 01181 0118 +175 +172 177024 025 002 000 00
190730 2101N 09035W 9072 00949 0120 +191 +173 176023 024 004 000 00
190800 2101N 09037W 9310 00723 0113 +207 +176 174019 022 004 001 00
190830 2101N 09039W 9538 00502 0102 +222 +181 173014 015 006 000 00
190900 2101N 09040W 9569 00471 0097 +225 +187 170013 015 008 000 00
190930 2101N 09042W 9572 00468 0097 +228 +194 153015 016 010 001 00
191000 2102N 09044W 9576 00464 0097 +225 +200 149015 016 016 000 00
191030 2102N 09045W 9575 00465 0096 +225 +206 147015 016 014 000 00
191100 2102N 09047W 9569 00469 0095 +223 +210 143014 016 014 001 00
191130 2101N 09049W 9569 00469 0095 +223 +213 156013 015 006 000 03
191200 2100N 09050W 9574 00462 0094 +225 +216 161015 016 012 001 00
191230 2059N 09051W 9571 00465 0093 +225 +219 159016 017 012 000 00
191300 2058N 09052W 9569 00467 0092 +226 +221 155018 019 014 001 00
191330 2057N 09053W 9573 00463 0092 +226 +222 153018 019 020 000 00
191400 2056N 09055W 9573 00462 0091 +225 +224 152019 021 020 001 00
191430 2055N 09056W 9574 00462 0091 +226 +225 150019 022 018 001 00
191500 2054N 09057W 9570 00464 0091 +225 //// 152019 020 020 000 01
$$
;

[tobol.7uno]

Intensity models as of 18z...

[maxintensity]

18z runs absolutely have mad a westward shift...

What 18z runs? The 12z runs are all that have run. Unless your talking about the BAMS which are not dynamical models. GFDL and HWRF had been mexico all along until 6z so no surprise there. CMC is CMC so no biggie there either. I'm not sure what west shift you speak of, but I do know the GFS has had a major shift north today. And its best to not use GFDL and HWRF for track guidance they are unreliable. Go with GFS.

[Dave]

090
URNT15 KNHC 081928
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 27 20110908
191530 2054N 09057W 9570 00464 0090 +222 //// 152019 020 022 003 01
191600 2052N 09059W 9576 00460 0091 +223 //// 162023 025 025 003 01
191630 2051N 09100W 9575 00459 0089 +230 +226 161028 029 029 001 00
191700 2050N 09101W 9575 00459 0089 +229 +225 161029 030 029 000 00
191730 2049N 09103W 9575 00459 0089 +227 +225 158027 029 029 001 00
191800 2048N 09104W 9574 00460 0088 +225 //// 159028 029 030 000 01
191830 2047N 09105W 9571 00461 0089 +225 //// 160030 031 029 000 01
191900 2046N 09106W 9579 00453 0088 +225 //// 162031 033 030 000 01
191930 2045N 09107W 9572 00459 0087 +225 //// 163034 036 033 000 01
192000 2044N 09108W 9569 00461 0086 +225 //// 159035 036 031 002 01
192030 2043N 09109W 9569 00462 0085 +224 //// 159033 035 031 001 01
192100 2042N 09110W 9579 00452 0084 +224 //// 159034 036 032 000 01
192130 2041N 09111W 9572 00457 0083 +223 //// 154033 038 029 000 01
192200 2040N 09112W 9580 00449 0083 +224 //// 151032 034 031 000 01
192230 2039N 09114W 9565 00461 0081 +221 //// 149032 034 029 001 01
192300 2037N 09115W 9577 00449 0080 +221 //// 146033 033 030 000 01
192330 2036N 09116W 9573 00452 0079 +220 //// 147035 036 031 001 01
192400 2035N 09117W 9578 00445 0078 +220 //// 149035 036 032 001 05
192430 2034N 09118W 9571 00451 0077 +220 //// 147037 038 034 000 01
192500 2033N 09119W 9574 00447 0076 +216 //// 151036 037 034 000 01
$$
;

[3090]

18z model runs are usually bunk. If I remember correctly, the 0z runs and 12z runs are thought to be more accountable/reliable.

[08lava]

I sure hope the GFS is right... man it would be great news here..

[Lane]

where is here?

[Dave]

[Wx_Warrior]

Lane, GFS 12z had storm inland near SWLA

[08lava]

@Lane, Austin Texas

[Dave]

333
URNT15 KNHC 081938
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 28 20110908
192530 2032N 09120W 9576 00443 0075 +215 //// 151037 038 034 000 01
192600 2031N 09121W 9574 00445 0074 +215 //// 149039 042 034 001 01
192630 2030N 09122W 9570 00447 0073 +214 //// 149039 042 035 000 01
192700 2029N 09124W 9571 00445 0070 +214 //// 146040 043 037 001 01
192730 2028N 09125W 9579 00432 0068 +213 //// 146041 042 037 001 01
192800 2027N 09126W 9575 00433 0064 +212 //// 148041 043 037 002 01
192830 2026N 09127W 9563 00446 0063 +210 //// 143041 042 038 000 01
192900 2025N 09128W 9573 00430 0057 +210 //// 143045 048 038 001 01
192930 2024N 09129W 9571 00431 0058 +210 //// 145045 048 039 003 01
193000 2023N 09130W 9557 00445 0055 +209 //// 144044 046 039 001 01
193030 2022N 09131W 9566 00428 0051 +209 //// 142046 048 040 000 01
193100 2021N 09132W 9572 00423 0048 +208 //// 141048 049 041 002 01
193130 2020N 09134W 9563 00429 0046 +207 //// 142047 049 040 002 01
193200 2019N 09135W 9565 00424 0043 +207 //// 141047 049 040 001 05
193230 2018N 09136W 9579 00409 0040 +208 //// 141049 052 040 002 01
193300 2017N 09137W 9572 00415 0039 +206 //// 141050 053 042 001 01
193330 2016N 09138W 9561 00421 0034 +206 //// 136051 052 044 002 01
193400 2015N 09139W 9576 00403 0032 +202 //// 138052 054 043 004 01
193430 2014N 09140W 9575 00402 0028 +204 //// 142056 057 046 001 05
193500 2013N 09141W 9578 00395 0023 +204 //// 144056 057 045 003 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[SunnyThoughts]

lol When one set of models run, and one of the models flip to the other direction, folks will say " Oh that was a bad model run, throw it out"..then when the next set of models run...a different model will flip and do the same thing and it starts all over again. Until they all come into some sort of an agreement, or the system actually starts MOVING in one certain direction..its mind boggling to put all your faith into just one model, no matter WHICH model it is.

[ROCK]

Lane, GFS 12z had storm inland near SWLA

have you seen the EURO ensembles?

[Sabanic]

lol When one set of models run, and one of the models flip to the other direction, folks will say " Oh that was a bad model run, throw it out"..then when the next set of models run...a different model will flip and do the same thing and it starts all over again. Until they all come into some sort of an agreement, or the system actually starts MOVING in one certain direction..its mind boggling to put all your faith into just one model, no matter WHICH model it is.

Amen to that Sunny . . .

[caneman]

Amen to that Sunny Thoughts. None of the models have been that great this year. Certainly not a King Euro this year. Bunch of flip flopping on the models this year thus far.