ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[ROCK]

The 11am forecast track vindicates my earlier thoughts....how is Nate going to bust through the Mexican ridge? I don't think Nate will. Nate will eventually get picked up by a trough. The more north Nate moves the greater the possibility that will get picked up. That death ridge has been around all summer and I don't see it poofing or moving a whole lot the next week. The trend is your friend. The NHC will gradually adjust the track to the right.....anyone will to take a bet?.......MGC


Of course the above rant is that of MGC and not an official forecast.

Death ridge? I purpose that word be banned from 2k because actually we lost 700 homes so far and many people have died...just sayin...


That said, Nate will follow the weakness.whats going to give the ridge over Texas/MX or the ridge building in when Kat and Maria depart?..The weakness is the evolution if the cut off low....consensus for a MX landfall is out the window now....expect the uptick of the cone east at 5pm.....IMO

[ROCK]

Dry air in and around Nate in the GOM is getting squeezed out. If I had to bet, I would bet the dry air will oly be around another 24hrs. or so.

Do you have something to back this up? The Texas dry air looks persistent right now.

look at the water vapor loop..

[South Texas Storms]

Alright, now that the models aren't sure what to do with Nate, let's let King Euro solve our problem in the next hour or so.

[ROCK]

Thought high may be building in from west?

its squeeze play....bro....the weakness is what happens with that cut off low in the central CONUS.....JMO...but that is how I see it....


if the EURO flips in an hour I think you will be singing a different tune... you got a clean plate ready?

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep. 12z CMC goes north then makes a left turn and looks to even head SW into Mexico @ 144 (FYI)



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[Wx_Warrior]

Yep. Sure do. Nate not going to SWLA.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


*edited by sg to add the disclaimer - use it when making forecasts or matter of fact statements

[northjaxpro]

With most models having this getting up to around 25 north, I'm having a hard time seeing a strong enough ridge building in from the east to push this SW. If it gets that far north then a continued north track would be the best bet imo.

Yes, I am inclined to agree with you Michael. If Nate reaches that latitude, he should feel the tug of the trough to lift it out of that BOC region toward the Gulf Coast.

[SoupBone]

Dry air in and around Nate in the GOM is getting squeezed out. If I had to bet, I would bet the dry air will oly be around another 24hrs. or so.

Do you have something to back this up? The Texas dry air looks persistent right now.

look at the water vapor loop..

I did and it shows no sign of moving. That dry area from texas all the way to where nate is remains. I was curious if he was looking at something else.

EDIT: I knw that the large frontal dry air will move, but I was talking about the Texas ridge.

[Dave]

897
URNT15 KNHC 081742
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 16 20110908
172530 2102N 09351W 9628 00418 0103 +205 //// 005029 031 032 007 01
172600 2100N 09350W 9632 00415 0101 +210 +209 014029 030 029 003 03
172630 2059N 09349W 9632 00414 0100 +216 +206 011033 035 028 002 03
172700 2059N 09348W 9633 00412 0097 +222 +207 008035 037 032 000 03
172730 2059N 09346W 9626 00418 0097 +223 +208 009031 032 031 001 03
172800 2059N 09345W 9628 00414 0095 +222 +211 004031 031 031 000 03
172830 2058N 09343W 9629 00413 0094 +226 +214 007028 029 031 000 00
172900 2058N 09341W 9630 00411 0092 +229 +217 013027 027 030 000 00
172930 2057N 09340W 9627 00414 0094 +213 //// 012027 030 032 006 01
173000 2056N 09338W 9621 00418 0091 +227 +219 016028 030 029 004 00
173030 2055N 09337W 9638 00403 0091 +235 +220 029027 027 027 000 00
173100 2055N 09335W 9628 00412 0090 +235 +221 027027 029 026 000 00
173130 2054N 09334W 9636 00405 0089 +235 +224 027028 029 026 001 00
173200 2054N 09332W 9623 00416 0088 +235 +227 026028 029 028 000 00
173230 2053N 09331W 9636 00403 0089 +230 //// 032029 030 030 002 01
173300 2053N 09329W 9630 00408 0087 +232 +231 034028 029 029 001 00
173330 2052N 09328W 9634 00404 0086 +235 +232 033029 030 028 000 00
173400 2052N 09326W 9631 00405 0086 +235 +232 034028 030 029 000 00
173430 2051N 09325W 9628 00408 0085 +232 //// 033029 030 027 000 01
173500 2050N 09324W 9630 00406 0084 +234 //// 034030 031 027 001 01
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 081734
97779 17284 51210 93700 04200 36031 22218 /0009
40230
RMK AF300 0215A NATE OB 04
SWS = 31 KTS
;

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
100 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011

...NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT APPROACHING...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. AN ERRATIC
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TOMORROW OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

...NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT APPROACHING...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[clfenwi]

12Z HWRF flips back to the Tampico, Mexico solution

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM NATE 15L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 8

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -92.40 LAT: 20.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -92.20 LAT: 20.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -92.00 LAT: 20.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -92.20 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -92.40 LAT: 20.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -92.30 LAT: 20.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -92.30 LAT: 21.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -92.50 LAT: 21.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -92.50 LAT: 21.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -92.60 LAT: 21.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -92.80 LAT: 21.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -93.10 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -93.50 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 78.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -94.00 LAT: 22.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -94.30 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -94.80 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 956.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -95.10 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -95.50 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -95.80 LAT: 22.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -96.40 LAT: 22.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -97.00 LAT: 22.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -97.60 LAT: 22.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

[tobol.7uno]

About to reach the strong area...

[underthwx]

cone didnt move much as of 1pm....dont think it will much over the next day or so.....







Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SunnyThoughts]

hmmm movement at 1mph? wow why not just put nearly stationary? lol and they actually bumped up the strength right before recon gets there? That isn't the norm is it? Don't they usually wait to raise the winds until recon finds higher winds, especially when recon is in the storm now?

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah Rock I agree. The words Texas death ridge should be banned from S2K. It makes me depressed every time I hear someone say that.

[Dave]

About to reach the strong area...

Could use some graphics help on Maria tobol.7uno if you want.

[South Texas Storms]

cone didnt move atm....dont think it will much over the next day or so.....







Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cone only updates every 6 hours. (10am, 4pm, 10pm, 4am)