ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

490
URNT15 KNHC 081705
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 13 20110908
165530 2234N 09225W 3926 07714 0399 -166 -260 003008 008 033 000 00
165600 2232N 09227W 3926 07714 0398 -167 -258 010009 009 030 000 00
165630 2230N 09228W 3926 07713 0399 -171 -261 021009 011 028 000 00
165700 2228N 09230W 3926 07715 0399 -172 -287 031009 011 029 002 00
165730 2227N 09232W 3925 07716 0399 -175 -280 035012 014 033 000 00
165800 2225N 09234W 3926 07715 0400 -176 -273 038013 013 032 001 00
165830 2223N 09237W 3926 07715 0398 -176 -275 049012 015 031 000 00
165900 2222N 09239W 3928 07711 0400 -169 -263 029005 006 030 001 03
165930 2221N 09241W 3926 07716 0400 -166 -306 013006 007 030 000 00
170000 2220N 09244W 3955 07666 0402 -163 -293 018010 013 033 003 03
170030 2218N 09246W 4084 07429 0392 -145 -289 032015 018 033 003 00
170100 2217N 09248W 4216 07190 0379 -132 -262 036023 025 032 001 00
170130 2215N 09251W 4356 06941 0364 -112 -311 037029 030 029 000 00
170200 2214N 09253W 4491 06705 0349 -095 -357 047028 029 030 000 00
170230 2213N 09256W 4655 06421 0327 -078 -348 051031 032 032 000 00
170300 2211N 09258W 4829 06135 0306 -057 -319 044033 034 038 010 00
170330 2210N 09300W 5015 05837 0285 -043 -224 041028 031 041 004 03
170400 2208N 09302W 5240 05491 0264 -036 -169 045024 025 036 003 00
170430 2207N 09304W 5453 05175 0246 -020 -202 056020 023 035 001 00
170500 2205N 09306W 5666 04870 0078 +002 -263 060020 021 032 001 03
$$
;

Descending to operational altitude...

[MGC]

The 11am forecast track vindicates my earlier thoughts....how is Nate going to bust through the Mexican ridge? I don't think Nate will. Nate will eventually get picked up by a trough. The more north Nate moves the greater the possibility that will get picked up. That death ridge has been around all summer and I don't see it poofing or moving a whole lot the next week. The trend is your friend. The NHC will gradually adjust the track to the right.....anyone will to take a bet?.......MGC


Of course the above rant is that of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Ivanhater]

The 11am forecast track vindicates my earlier thoughts....how is Nate going to bust through the Mexican ridge? I don't think Nate will. Nate will eventually get picked up by a trough. The more north Nate moves the greater the possibility that will get picked up. That death ridge has been around all summer and I don't see it poofing or moving a whole lot the next week. The trend is your friend. The NHC will gradually adjust the track to the right.....anyone will to take a bet?.......MGC


Of course the above rant is that of MGC and not an official forecast.

We don't have to look back far to see what just happened....Lee

[Dave]

[Stormcenter]

Like I've said before you have to take these model runs with a grain of salt sometimes especially one that is 8 days out. Oh well time will tell.

[Rgv20]

Lol 12zCMC now takes it to the Western GOM.....Definitely models are at odds right now.

Taking a look at the 0zECMWF Ensembles, several members are indicating Nate as far north as Brownsville.

[Dave]

042
URNT15 KNHC 081715
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 14 20110908
170530 2204N 09308W 5925 04510 0072 +028 -260 055021 021 /// /// 03
170600 2202N 09310W 6225 04105 0073 +049 -183 055022 023 /// /// 03
170630 2201N 09313W 6513 03737 0096 +058 -125 060022 022 /// /// 03
170700 2200N 09315W 6791 03391 0091 +079 -008 054022 023 /// /// 03
170730 2159N 09317W 7076 03052 0103 +087 +040 046022 023 /// /// 03
170800 2157N 09320W 7367 02715 0107 +101 +070 045025 025 /// /// 03
170830 2156N 09322W 7659 02389 0115 +112 +093 032024 025 /// /// 03
170900 2155N 09324W 7967 02059 0120 +129 +107 025026 027 /// /// 03
170930 2153N 09326W 8302 01712 0120 +150 +121 023029 030 /// /// 03
171000 2152N 09328W 8653 01359 0121 +171 +138 025030 031 /// /// 03
171030 2151N 09330W 9012 01014 0122 +195 +152 027030 032 /// /// 03
171100 2149N 09332W 9374 00678 0123 +219 +161 023031 032 /// /// 03
171130 2148N 09334W 9559 00496 0116 +230 +166 019032 032 034 001 00
171200 2147N 09335W 9611 00443 0110 +230 +170 018033 033 034 002 00
171230 2146N 09337W 9635 00417 0104 +228 +176 017033 033 033 001 00
171300 2144N 09338W 9627 00424 0103 +235 +181 018032 033 032 003 00
171330 2143N 09340W 9627 00423 0104 +229 +186 018033 033 034 001 00
171400 2142N 09341W 9631 00419 0103 +230 +191 018035 036 035 000 00
171430 2141N 09343W 9629 00421 0103 +231 +194 016036 037 036 002 03
171500 2139N 09344W 9631 00420 0104 +230 +197 015036 036 035 002 03
$$
;

Operational Altitude

[tolakram]

Please limit discussion in this thread to models and the direct discussion of model runs. Other discussion related to Nate takes place in the Nate discussion thread.

[clfenwi]

Up to 84h or so, it looked like the CMC was going to imitate the GFS run. However, after that point, it turns Nate southwest and eventually into Mexico (or just off-shore) at 144h.

Model had been consistent with AL/FL landfall until now.

[Dave]

[ROCK]

Please let this hit TX, smack dab in the middle please!

LoL get your flame suit on

Somewhere Rock is screaming at his I-phone

thats right I was!!! I will personally stand on the West End of Galveston and welcome you at landfall.....I dont care if he is a CAT 1. I will stand in the surge like Cantore and wait for the eye.....

We are desperate....the fires around here are crazy....we have some north of town now...

[Ivanhater]

As soon as some of the other models switch, the Canadian switches camps. That has happened a lot this season with the Canadian.

[ROCK]

As soon as some of the other models switch, the Canadian switches camps. That has happened a lot this season with the Canadian.

noticed that too....its been of a follower than a leader this year....

[Ivanhater]

With most models having this getting up to around 25 north, I'm having a hard time seeing a strong enough ridge building in from the east to push this SW. If it gets that far north then a continued north track would be the best bet imo.

[Wx_Warrior]

Thought high may be building in from west?

[Ivanhater]

Thought high may be building in from west?

Both directions actually and with a storm already moving north it and a ridge to the west and east, it should continue to at least drift north.

[Dave]

915
URNT15 KNHC 081725
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 15 20110908
171530 2138N 09344W 9627 00423 0104 +230 +200 013036 036 038 000 00
171600 2136N 09345W 9623 00428 0104 +230 +202 014036 036 036 001 03
171630 2134N 09346W 9622 00429 0104 +231 +205 013035 037 035 002 00
171700 2132N 09347W 9640 00412 0103 +230 +207 013035 035 035 001 00
171730 2131N 09347W 9625 00424 0103 +230 +209 012035 037 034 002 00
171800 2129N 09348W 9630 00420 0103 +230 +210 012036 036 033 001 00
171830 2127N 09348W 9629 00421 0103 +230 +212 012036 036 036 001 00
171900 2125N 09349W 9629 00422 0102 +230 +213 013036 036 037 002 00
171930 2123N 09350W 9629 00420 0102 +230 +214 012035 035 036 004 00
172000 2122N 09350W 9629 00420 0102 +225 +215 010035 035 036 003 00
172030 2120N 09351W 9629 00419 0101 +224 +215 011035 036 037 003 00
172100 2118N 09351W 9630 00418 0101 +224 +214 011037 038 037 003 00
172130 2116N 09352W 9632 00416 0101 +225 +213 008036 037 038 001 00
172200 2114N 09353W 9627 00421 0101 +228 +212 007036 036 037 001 00
172230 2113N 09353W 9625 00423 0101 +231 +212 009035 037 034 003 00
172300 2111N 09353W 9627 00422 0101 +226 +213 007032 034 034 002 03
172330 2109N 09353W 9629 00420 0101 +227 +215 006033 034 031 004 00
172400 2107N 09353W 9629 00420 0101 +225 +215 005033 034 033 004 00
172430 2105N 09352W 9626 00421 0102 +214 //// 004034 035 033 004 05
172500 2104N 09352W 9633 00414 0100 +220 +213 359032 032 030 005 00
$$
;

[clfenwi]

12Z CMC at 144h



Loop

[SoupBone]

Dry air in and around Nate in the GOM is getting squeezed out. If I had to bet, I would bet the dry air will oly be around another 24hrs. or so.

Do you have something to back this up? The Texas dry air looks persistent right now.

[Dave]