ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[perk]

Turns NE and hits SW Louisiana. Models continue to move away from the Mexico solution.

As much as i would like to see some rain from Nate i find this run hard to believe,over 8 days in the GOM.

[Portastorm]

That run would be a two-fold disaster -- one in Louisiana from the storm and another in Texas as the winds from Nate would ignite multiple new wildfires and worsen ongoing fires.

[RachelAnna]

192 hours...approaching Houston

Gotta be careful throwing around the H word like that! Did you hear a collective gasp? Not just from the people, but from the trees, the grass, and the animals?!

[hurr123]

Anyone knows what JB is saying today about Nate?

[Wx_Warrior]

Ain't happening. Sorry GFS lovers. Throw that run out.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

468
URNT15 KNHC 081645
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 11 20110908
163530 2338N 09101W 3925 07721 0405 -165 -289 211002 003 018 000 00
163600 2337N 09103W 3925 07723 0405 -165 -284 221001 001 018 001 00
163630 2335N 09105W 3925 07721 0404 -165 -299 333000 001 018 000 00
163700 2334N 09107W 3923 07723 0403 -165 -283 327001 001 017 000 00
163730 2332N 09110W 3921 07729 0403 -165 -302 343002 003 020 000 00
163800 2331N 09112W 3929 07712 0401 -165 -293 316003 003 021 000 00
163830 2329N 09114W 3923 07719 0401 -165 -298 288004 004 021 001 00
163900 2328N 09116W 3925 07720 0402 -165 -302 297005 005 021 000 00
163930 2326N 09118W 3925 07721 0402 -165 -309 315005 005 024 001 00
164000 2324N 09120W 3924 07719 0401 -165 -313 325005 006 024 001 00
164030 2323N 09122W 3925 07721 0401 -165 -316 329004 004 024 001 00
164100 2321N 09124W 3925 07719 0401 -165 -321 306004 004 025 002 00
164130 2320N 09126W 3923 07721 0401 -170 -319 317002 003 027 001 00
164200 2318N 09128W 3925 07719 0402 -162 -333 308004 005 031 002 00
164230 2317N 09131W 3926 07718 0403 -156 -384 313004 005 032 002 00
164300 2315N 09133W 3925 07720 0402 -157 -376 331007 007 030 001 00
164330 2314N 09135W 3926 07716 0402 -157 -370 343008 008 029 001 00
164400 2312N 09137W 3926 07716 0401 -164 -397 003009 009 030 002 00
164430 2311N 09139W 3926 07716 0402 -165 -395 002010 010 028 002 00
164500 2309N 09141W 3926 07716 0401 -166 -376 013010 010 024 003 00
$$
;

[South Texas Storms]

Ain't happening. Sorry GFS lovers. Throw that run out.

You still buying the MX landfall Warrior?

[Wx_Warrior]

I'll take eggs to the face & crow and even stop posting if that exact run plays out.

[JtSmarts]

Anyone knows what JB is saying today about Nate?

He hasn't mentioned on twitter yet today, he's mostly ranting about global warming.

[GCANE]

Here is the 6Z GFS 850mb Theta-e forecast.

This usually correlates very well with MIMIC-TPW.

I haven't gotten the 12Z run yet, but I think it'll pretty much show the same effect.

The loop is showing a good boundary-layer connection and infeed from the ITCZ

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Needless to say, if Nate gets into the middle of the GOM and is a Cat 1 or higher, another major infeed will be WISHE from the Loop Current.

[Dave]

[perk]

I'll take eggs to the face & crow and even stop posting if that exact run plays out.

As i posted earlier i don't buy this run either, but i won't take it this far.

[psyclone]

Ain't happening. Sorry GFS lovers. Throw that run out.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

it does seem silly. the exceptionally slow pace makes this automatically suspect imo

[clfenwi]

All kinds of action for Nate tomorrow

2. TROPICAL STORM NATE.
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 09/18Z
B. AFXXX 0515A NATE
C. 09/1515Z
D. 21.5N 92.5W
E. 09/1730Z TO 09/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 10/00Z
B. NOAA9 0615A NATE
C. 09/1730Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43
A. 10/00Z
B. NOAA3 0715A NATE
C. 09/20Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 76
A. 10/06Z
B. AFXXX 0815A NATE
C. 10/0330Z
D. 22.2N 92.9W
E. 10/0530Z TO 10/09Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 42
A. 10/12Z
B. NOAA2 0915A NATE
C. 10/08Z
D. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[Dean4Storms]

Very strange run, must be less troughing.

[CronkPSU]

so Florida has two hurricanes within 200 or so miles of it at one point, both on a direction towards florida and then both of them go in opposite directions and we don't get hit with either of them??? that's crazy

[jballfsu]

what did he say about nate yesterday?

[Dave]

246
URNT15 KNHC 081655
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 12 20110908
164530 2307N 09143W 3926 07715 0401 -170 -379 018010 010 023 001 00
164600 2306N 09145W 3926 07717 0401 -170 -364 023011 012 026 000 00
164630 2304N 09148W 3927 07715 0402 -170 -350 017011 012 028 000 00
164700 2303N 09150W 3925 07720 0403 -170 -340 017010 011 028 000 00
164730 2301N 09152W 3926 07717 0402 -174 -289 018012 013 027 000 00
164800 2259N 09154W 3926 07715 0401 -173 -306 015013 014 027 001 00
164830 2258N 09156W 3926 07716 0402 -171 -303 009014 014 028 000 00
164900 2256N 09158W 3926 07717 0402 -173 -314 011013 015 027 000 00
164930 2255N 09201W 3923 07722 0402 -179 -308 021015 016 028 001 00
165000 2253N 09203W 3925 07717 0401 -176 -281 021014 016 027 000 00
165030 2251N 09205W 3930 07706 0399 -163 -291 348012 013 028 000 00
165100 2250N 09207W 3924 07717 0399 -165 -284 351012 012 030 000 00
165130 2248N 09209W 3927 07710 0398 -165 -261 348010 011 032 000 00
165200 2247N 09211W 3926 07715 0398 -165 -290 353011 012 031 001 00
165230 2245N 09213W 3927 07711 0398 -165 -267 353012 012 030 000 00
165300 2243N 09215W 3925 07715 0398 -166 -252 355011 012 029 001 00
165330 2242N 09218W 3923 07718 0398 -170 -234 003012 012 030 000 03
165400 2240N 09219W 3927 07710 0398 -169 -256 008011 012 033 001 00
165430 2238N 09221W 3926 07714 0399 -165 -257 005007 007 036 001 00
165500 2236N 09223W 3927 07714 0399 -165 -272 003007 007 034 003 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[JtSmarts]

what did he say about nate yesterday?

This was 19 hours ago.

New depression soon to be Nate in southern gulf. Difficult forecast situation in 4 days for gulf coast