ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Aric Dunn
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quite a few outflow boundaries.. seems its keeps ingesting dry air..
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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Aric Dunn
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:seems like it is more on a WNW heading starting to gain some lattitude....
hard to tell. seems the center is still on the southern side of all the convection. being that center is not that well defined ( probably from the recent outflow boundaries ) a center reformation could be happening. just have to watch.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models
When you say it's showing good "ridging" , what does this imply?
Also, when a trough is mentioned does that generally act like a border that it can't cross typically?
Also, when a trough is mentioned does that generally act like a border that it can't cross typically?
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Aric Dunn
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"...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC... "
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models
kirium wrote:When you say it's showing good "ridging" , what does this imply?
Also, when a trough is mentioned does that generally act like a border that it can't cross typically?
Tropical systems follow differences in pressure in the atmosphere so a ridge is a high pressure and trough is low pressure. ridging typically means they cant go through it but around it. For troughs they pick up TC and eventually merge with them..
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Aric Dunn
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"MARIA IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS"
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JtSmarts
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Track looks VERY similar to Irene at this point.
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Typhoon_Willie
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models
Good ridging usually means that a high pressure area is getting stronger, expanding westward, which means that steering currents for storms will ususally go more westward as well. This is opposed as to a low pressure trough that usually erodes a high pressure ridge making it weaker which usually recedes eastward and thus the steering currents for storms would change to a more northward and then northeast direction.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
For those of you keeping score at home, this puts us just two storms behind 2005 (Ophelia had just formed today), or if you prefer, six days (2005!Maria formed on the 1st of September). Looks like we'll hit the Greeks this year in an endless parade of rather sad tropical storms 
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ATL: MARIA - Recon
Mission scheduled for Thursday afternoon.
NOUS42 KNHC 071500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 07 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-099
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM MARIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0114A MARIA
C. 08/1700Z
D. 14.3N 52.0W
E. 08/1930Z TO 08/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
...
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. MARIA: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 09/1200Z
NOUS42 KNHC 071500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 07 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-099
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM MARIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0114A MARIA
C. 08/1700Z
D. 14.3N 52.0W
E. 08/1930Z TO 08/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
...
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. MARIA: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 09/1200Z
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JtSmarts
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Here the updated track forecast. Note Maria is not forecast to become a hurricane through 5 days.
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Caribwxgirl
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So if the current movement is west as the NHC says and according to them its expected to remain moving in that direction for the next two days why is the cone showing a WNW type movement between today and tomorrow? (I think that's WNW) 
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
gatorcane wrote:seems like it is more on a WNW heading starting to gain some lattitude....
I agree...it will miss its next forecast point to the right unless its just a wobble. maybe just center relo...
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Fego
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 7
Location: 13.0°N 42.0°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: W at 23 mphMin pressure: 1003 mb
Fast and Furious
I won't be surprise if the LLC and the convenction split.
Location: 13.0°N 42.0°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: W at 23 mphMin pressure: 1003 mb
Fast and Furious
I won't be surprise if the LLC and the convenction split.
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WeatherLovingDoc
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
^^ Thanks everyone. Grasping ridges and troughs has been much harder than I imagined over the years here. I appreciate your descriptive words, as I'm sure other less weather mature individuals do too.
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JtSmarts
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Re:
Caribwxgirl wrote:So if the current movement is west as the NHC says and according to them its expected to remain moving in that direction for the next two days why is the cone showing a WNW type movement between today and tomorrow? (I think that's WNW)
True West is 270 degrees, Maria is moving at 280 degrees which isn't quite WNW but more North of West.
This site has a picture of the degrees
http://funsocialstudies.learninghaven.com/images/comp4.gif
Last edited by JtSmarts on Wed Sep 07, 2011 10:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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HurricaneWarning92
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this girl is really just hauling butt (@ 23 mph!)...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Caribwxgirl
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Re: Re:
JtSmarts wrote:Caribwxgirl wrote:So if the current movement is west as the NHC says and according to them its expected to remain moving in that direction for the next two days why is the cone showing a WNW type movement between today and tomorrow? (I think that's WNW)
True West is 270 degrees, Maria is moving at 280 degrees which isn't quite WNW but more North of West.
This site has a picture of the degrees
http://funsocialstudies.learninghaven.com/images/comp4.gif
Thank you.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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