ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Seems some dry air has interrupted development... circ appears to be on the far southern side of all the convection.

[dwsqos2]

SHIP S 1200 10.60 -42.50 175 241 90 9.9

A ship an hour ago reported easterly winds south of the estimated center. To be fair I can see low-cloud elements suggestive of at least SW winds in the same area, but still.

[Aric Dunn]

Do we have a TS now ? cimss site switched to a TS symbol from a "L"

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

[SFLcane]

Do we have a TS now ? cimss site switched to a TS symbol from a "L"

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

It appears so Aric..12z updated best track has it at TS intensity.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al142011.invest

[AJC3]

ecm looks lot different this run

more west in long range with a recurve barely east of sfl in 192 hours.

Still recurves well East of Florida, @300 miles.

Actually, on the 07/00Z ECM run, it's only about 120 miles (2 degrees) east of the SE FL coast at 192 hours.

[lostsole]

This stupid thing probably won't even become a tropical storm before it reaches 60W. The reliable globals show little,if any, intensification before then. ACE generating potential looks bleak.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, dwsqos, I hope you're right. At the moment the NHC is showing this further south than many models, the edge of the cone passing over Martinique, 25 miles to my north, and with winds gusting up to 75 mph by the time it reaches 60W. Then heading straight for PR. Right now, I'll go with the NHC...and still hope you're right!

Why is it stupid that a storm doesnt develop? Isnt that a good thing for people in its possible path?

[SFLcane]

Morning run from the ECM brings fairly close to SFL.

[SouthFloridawx]

Do we have a TS now ? cimss site switched to a TS symbol from a "L"

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Looks right to me.

[Blown Away]

Ok, thanks for the correction.
Weird to see 2 systems so close and generally moving at each other? 96L moving NE and TD14 moving NW? GFS seems to be doing better than the ECM this year.

[maxx9512]

Do we have a TS now ? cimss site switched to a TS symbol from a "L"

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

I noticed that just before you posted that.On their map move mouse over symbol it says
Tropical Storm fourteen. Nothing different at the NRL site but they are having computer issues still.

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z BAM models initialized a good deal wnw from the 6z position. models have a fairly large spread starting early on... still dont see a good consensus.

[gatorcane]

The 12z BAM models initialized a good deal wnw from the 6z position. models have a fairly large spread starting early on... still dont see a good consensus.

I don't know Aric, it seems to be most of the models are east of the Bahamas and through or near the northern Leewards with the exception of the ECMWF which is the lone western outlier right now. Doesn't look to be a CONUS threat at this time -- very similar synoptics in place from when Irene and Emily were traversing the MDR towards the islands:

Big trough/weakness along the Eastern seaboard and the Bermuda High ridge centered over the central Atlantic and not enough ridging to get these systems into the Western Caribbean. This pattern does not favor Florida or CONUS hits.

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z BAM models initialized a good deal wnw from the 6z position. models have a fairly large spread starting early on... still dont see a good consensus.

I don't know Aric, it seems to be most of the models are east of the Bahamas and through or near the northern Leewards with the exception of the ECMWF which is the lone western outlier right now. Doesn't look to be a CONUS threat at this time -- very similar synoptics in place from when Irene and Emily were traversing the MDR towards the islands.

Big trough along the Eastern seaboard and the Bermuda High ridge centered over the central Atlantic and not enough ridging to get these systems into the Western Caribbean. This pattern does not favor Florida or CONUS hits.

i agree they are all on a general turn wnw but when, where this turn happens is not so much also gfs has a different synoptic set up then the EURO and the UKMET is also quite different and some still want to kill it. most models are to fast. and there is a large uncertainty that far out and even more since the gulf system will likely help amplify the trough if it heads NE. remember the Euro from the other day had a weak gulf system and weak trough allowing it to get to the NW carrib then it had a strong gulf system and when it lifted NE merged with the trough and helped weaken the ridging... beside all that craziness past 120 hours.. the first 72hrs are not in very good agreement either...

this is hardly a consensus
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Why is it stupid that a storm doesnt develop? Isnt that a good thing for people in its possible path?

Some people like that storms develop. It's exciting! They have a derogatory name for us folks excited about it but don't have formal training.
For some reason some people actually (think) they WANT the storm to come to them.
Still others are truly awed by the phenomenon and study and learn from the storm.
I've got to say too that some people do wish destruction upon others. Anything is possible in this world.
Some people pray that every storm never develops. Though this would be ideal as far as people in its path goes, as the hurricane exists to transport latent heat out of the oceans, without them I'm certain a measurable change in the entire global climate would occur.

[dwsqos2]

I think that ASCAT data played a role in the potential upgrade; the 25 km data showed winds as high as 45 knots. Center looks rather poorly defined though. I can't post an image because my computer isn't cooperating.

[chrisjslucia]

Do we have a TS now ? cimss site switched to a TS symbol from a "L"

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

It appears so Aric..12z updated best track has it at TS intensity.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al142011.invest

That seems to show a fair shift to the North in the past 12 hours.

[clfenwi]

I think that ASCAT data played a role in the potential upgrade; the 25 km data showed winds as high as 45 knots. Center looks rather poorly defined though. I can't post an image because my computer isn't cooperating.

Good catch.



alternate view

[Aric Dunn]

12z NAM ... showing some good ridging developing behind KATIA this run.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[TheBurn]

14:00Z Natural Color & MPE

[caribsue]

This stupid thing probably won't even become a tropical storm before it reaches 60W. The reliable globals show little,if any, intensification before then. ACE generating potential looks bleak.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, dwsqos, I hope you're right. At the moment the NHC is showing this further south than many models, the edge of the cone passing over Martinique, 25 miles to my north, and with winds gusting up to 75 mph by the time it reaches 60W. Then heading straight for PR. Right now, I'll go with the NHC...and still hope you're right!

I agree with you Chrisjslucia..... Lest we forget what happened in the islands of St. Lucia and St. Vincent last year with Tomas before it was even upgrades to TS status