ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[arlwx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
0900 UTC WED SEP 07 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 39.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 39.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 39.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.6N 42.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.3N 46.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.6N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.7N 60.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 39.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[arlwx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011

DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE CYCLONE WAS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
AGENCIES ARE 2.0...WHICH DO NOT SUPPORT NAMING THE SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME. NORMALLY WE WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS LOCATION AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT CALL FOR MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THE REASONS FOR THIS ARE
NOT CLEAR...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DEPRESSION...AND THIS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT IS ONE OF FEW MODELS TO DO SO. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT
QUITE CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HURRICANE FORECAST
IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...MODELS. THIS IS ALSO THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES...BUT A SMOOTHED
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY DAYS 2-3...HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE RIGHT WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD...WITH THE GFDL AND GFS
AMONG THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS AND THE ECMWF AND HWRF
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS
ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR OR A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 12.0N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 12.6N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 13.3N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 14.0N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 14.6N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 16.7N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 19.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

Dscussion by Rob of Crown Weather.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Depression #14:
Invest 95L was upgraded to Tropical Depression #14 yesterday afternoon. The depression is close to tropical storm strength this morning and I suspect we will see it upgraded to Tropical Storm Maria sometime today. The latest intensity guidance forecasts very little strengthening of TD 14 with most model guidance forecasting it to remain a weak 40 or 45 mph tropical storm right into this weekend. It appears that this system will remain weak due to the combination of shear being imparted on the depression by a trough of low pressure located about 500 miles northwest of this system and the fact that this system may try to outrun itself over the next several days. The European model weakens it after today and keeps it weak right into early next week before strengthening it again near the Bahamas next Wednesday.

Tropical Depression 14 is tracking slightly north of due west at a forward speed of 18 to 19 mph. This forward speed is expected to increase over the next couple of days and the low level center may try to outrun any mid-level center and keep this system quite weak. This track will bring this system into the northern Leeward Islands as a tropical storm on Saturday and then across the Virgin Islands as a tropical storm on Saturday night. After that, it looks likely that we will have a strong trough of low pressure located over the Mississippi River Valley next week with a strong ridge of high pressue in the western Atlantic. This means that this system should be able to make it west of 70 and even west of 75 West Longitude. The GFS model forecasts a curve north and northeast well east of the United States next week while the European model forecasts a track that takes it very close to the outer banks of North Carolina next Thursday and next Friday.

I will be monitoring Tropical Depression 14 closely and I will keep you all updated.

[clfenwi]

HWRF continues to keep it weak

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN 14L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 7

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -38.90 LAT: 11.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -40.30 LAT: 12.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -42.00 LAT: 12.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -43.90 LAT: 12.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -45.70 LAT: 13.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -47.60 LAT: 13.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -49.30 LAT: 13.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -50.90 LAT: 13.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -52.60 LAT: 14.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -54.10 LAT: 14.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -55.30 LAT: 15.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -56.50 LAT: 16.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -57.80 LAT: 17.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -59.00 LAT: 18.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -60.10 LAT: 19.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -61.30 LAT: 20.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -62.40 LAT: 21.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -63.30 LAT: 22.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -64.40 LAT: 23.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -65.30 LAT: 23.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -66.20 LAT: 24.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -66.80 LAT: 24.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.00
FORECAST RAN COUPLED TO HOUR: 105.7500 105.7500

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.




Wind swath



Loop

[rainstorm]

if it flies as fast as the gfs says it might just end up an open wave. its going to catch up with katia's trough.

[clfenwi]

Looks like the GFDL shifted (slightly) right in the later portion of the run

HOUR: .0 LONG: -39.41 LAT: 11.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.80
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -40.94 LAT: 11.82 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.93 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.19
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -43.08 LAT: 12.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.13 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.94
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -45.29 LAT: 12.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.63
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -47.72 LAT: 13.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.16 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.39
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -50.35 LAT: 13.55 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.64
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -52.83 LAT: 13.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.23
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -54.78 LAT: 14.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.63 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.96
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -56.62 LAT: 14.47 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.97 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.34
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -58.18 LAT: 14.92 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.46
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -59.78 LAT: 15.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.41
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -61.07 LAT: 16.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.19 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.45
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -62.61 LAT: 17.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.21
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -64.34 LAT: 18.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.47 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.02
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -65.57 LAT: 19.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.95
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -66.77 LAT: 20.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.53 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.18
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -68.12 LAT: 21.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.74
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -69.40 LAT: 22.09 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.58
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -70.59 LAT: 22.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.48 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.90
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -71.52 LAT: 23.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.21 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.68
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -72.28 LAT: 24.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.38
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -72.90 LAT: 25.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.97 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.11



Wind swath



Loop

[Adoquín]

another morning, another potential hurricane on its way. Local meteorologist Ada Monzon saying Puerto Rico needs to prepare for a Cat 1. I'll settle for that but wonder why in the world it will stay a weak TS until 65W.

[dwsqos2]

And, I think I can already see the outflow being undercut by stong winds. Joy.

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 330 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

THU-SAT...UNUSUALLY LARGE/EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL COVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS THU AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE STARTING TO ELONGATE
AND SHEAR OUT INTO A LARGE WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH FROM LATE FRI
THROUGH SAT. MOIST DEEP LAYER SW FLOW SOUTH OF STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENINSULA FOR LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THU-FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONTAL
MOISTURE BAND. BOTH THE MEAN LAYER MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE BY SATURDAY...LEADING TO A LITTLE LOWER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS WEEKEND. PAINTED HIGHEST POPS (50-60) FOR
THU...FOLLOWED BY 40-50 FRI AND 30 AREAWIDE SAT. MAX TEMPS IN THE
U80S TO L90S WITH MINS IN THE L-M70S...PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

SUN-WED...GFS AND ECM ARE QUITE DISPARATE IN THEIR HANDLING OF
TROPICAL SYSTEMS BOTH IN THE GOMEX AND ATLC. THE GFS SENDS THE
SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WESTWARD WHILST KEEPING THE CURRENT
T.D. 14 WELL EAST OF THE STATE. NET RESULT IS NEAR NORMAL POPS
FOR SUN-MON...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DRYING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECM LIFTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE
SLOWLY NNE TO NE OVER THE CTRL GOMEX WHILST BRINGING THE EAST ATLC
CYCLONE INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MUCH WETTER PATTERN
LOCALLY. SUFFICE IT TO SAY "SOMETHING`S GOTTA GIVE". OF THE TWO
...THE ECM SOLUTION LOOKS SURPRISINGLY LESS REALISTIC IN BOTH THE
HANDLING OF THE H50 PATTERN OVER THE ATLC...AND BRINGING TWO
TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAIRLY CLOSE TO FLORIDA (AS WELL AS EACH OTHER).

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT DRYING FROM EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS FAR FROM WRITTEN IN STONE.

[clfenwi]

SAB Dvorak estimate. No change in intensity.

07/1145 UTC 12.3N 41.0W T2.0/2.0 14L

[dwsqos2]

This stupid thing probably won't even become a tropical storm before it reaches 60W. The reliable globals show little,if any, intensification before then. ACE generating potential looks bleak.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[rainstorm]

another morning, another potential hurricane on its way. Local meteorologist Ada Monzon saying Puerto Rico needs to prepare for a Cat 1. I'll settle for that but wonder why in the world it will stay a weak TS until 65W.

it will move too fast and its LLC will eject from the convection, plus a double whammy of shear.

[clfenwi]

12z best track

AL, 14, 2011090712, , BEST, 0, 128N, 410W, 35, 1005, TS,

TAFB's Dvorak estimate was 12.0N 40.5W 2.5/2.5. Intensity set for best track seems to have been influenced by this; unclear what caused the position to be set further north than the estimates, perhaps forecaster judgement rather than any specific non-visual satellite evidence.


Visual



(edited to add TAFB estimate and again for visual image and extended comment on best track position)

[chrisjslucia]

This stupid thing probably won't even become a tropical storm before it reaches 60W. The reliable globals show little,if any, intensification before then. ACE generating potential looks bleak.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, dwsqos, I hope you're right. At the moment the NHC is showing this further south than many models, the edge of the cone passing over Martinique, 25 miles to my north, and with winds gusting up to 75 mph by the time it reaches 60W. Then heading straight for PR. Right now, I'll go with the NHC...and still hope you're right!

[dwsqos2]

Delete thoughts about this not becoming a tropical storm before the LA. Still, it will probably remain very weak thanks to unfavorable upper and lower level winds.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[sandyb]

This stupid thing probably won't even become a tropical storm before it reaches 60W. The reliable globals show little,if any, intensification before then. ACE generating potential looks bleak.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

you sound dissapointed ie..this stupid thing...maybe this "stupid thing" will go on and not reach any land

[Blown Away]

ecm looks lot different this run

more west in long range with a recurve barely east of sfl in 192 hours.

Still recurves well East of Florida, @300 miles.

[dwsqos2]

Progged shear on the 12Z run of SHIPS looks vile, never dipping below 13 knots and usually hovering around 20 knots.

[xironman]

The more I look at the set-up aloft the more I see no way this can hit the US...that large upper trough over the states right now is going to lift out eastwards at some point and when it does given the large size it should be able to lift out any strengthening system.

I suspect we'll have another one dof those systems that develops and strikes through the E Caribbean as it picked up.

Of course, things can change.

It is going to need to be developed enough to feel the trough, otherwise it will be an open wave moving with the trades.

[Edit] Note the BAMS below.

[Blown Away]

Saved Image.
12Z BAMS & TVCN.