ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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meriland23
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BensonTCwatcher
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Not really a suspect solution. Look at the 500mb, better yet for a weaker storm the 700mb winds and you can see the steering flows. You can't see them looking at surface pressures. Mike Watkins posted few pages back a great explanation. You can go to the NCEP (S2K models link above 
or any other site and view the same time frame this way.
or any other site and view the same time frame this way.
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meriland23
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Re:
BensonTCwatcher wrote:Not really a suspect solution. Look at the 500mb, better yet for a weaker storm the 700mb winds and you can see the steering flows. You can't see them looking at surface pressures. Mike Watkins posted few pages back a great explanation. You can go to the NCEP (S2K models link above
what is a suspect solution
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models
Its not suspect...its an upper level weakness so the steering would be in the upper levels...what fries your brain now is high strong the storm is and is it deep enough to follow it.... 
anyway that is what I got out of MW explanation...
anyway that is what I got out of MW explanation...
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HurricaneMaster_PR
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models
The CMC changed dramatically from 12Z to 00Z
12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models
HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:The CMC changed dramatically from 12Z to 00Z
12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
much more south and doesn't curve as soon
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HurricaneMaster_PR
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Not looking healthy right now, in terms of thunderstorm activity...
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Closest point to San Juan at 11 PM Advisory. Anyone that may want to know at what distance from your location it will pass with every new advisory can go to the site at link below.
http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm
Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.3N, 65.3W or about 77.0 miles (123.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 106.7 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 9:42AM AST).
When it first got TD status earlier today, the CPA was 30 miles from Culebra, now it's
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.0N, 64.8W or about 55.3 miles (88.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 103.6 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 6:36AM AST).
Interesting, but strange.
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HurricaneMaster_PR
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
07/0615 UTC 11.5N 39.4W T2.0/2.0 14L -- Atlantic
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Fego
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:07/0615 UTC 11.5N 39.4W T2.0/2.0 14L -- Atlantic
HurricaneMaster did you see the CMC and ECM 00Z runs?.. btw check your pm.
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Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!
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Fego
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meriland23
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ecm looks lot different this run
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meriland23
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Oz
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
@12z
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
@12z
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
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Evil Jeremy
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Re:
meriland23 wrote:ecm looks lot different this run
more west in long range with a recurve barely east of sfl in 192 hours.
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Convection not the best this morning, but thenagain the models haven't been keen on this system strengthening too early at all...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The more I look at the set-up aloft the more I see no way this can hit the US...that large upper trough over the states right now is going to lift out eastwards at some point and when it does given the large size it should be able to lift out any strengthening system.
I suspect we'll have another one dof those systems that develops and strikes through the E Caribbean as it picked up.
Of course, things can change.
I suspect we'll have another one dof those systems that develops and strikes through the E Caribbean as it picked up.
Of course, things can change.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.4N, 65.4W or about 78.8 miles (126.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 95.5 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 4:30AM AST).
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.4N, 65.4W or about 78.8 miles (126.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 95.5 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 4:30AM AST).
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Gustywind
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Dr. Rick Knabb, , The Weather Channel
Sep 7, 2011 4:59 am ET
- Tropical Depression 14 nearing tropical storm strength over the central tropical Atlantic and could directly affect Leeward Islands starting Friday
ATLANTIC BASIN
* Tropical Depression strengthening
- Tropical Depression 14 formed over the central tropical Atlantic Tuesday
- It has been slowly gaining strength and could become Tropical Storm Maria later today as it continues to head westward.
- It could directly affect the Leeward Islands on Friday or Saturday and other parts of the northern Caribbean from the Virgin Islands to Hispaniola this weekend.
Sep 7, 2011 4:59 am ET
- Tropical Depression 14 nearing tropical storm strength over the central tropical Atlantic and could directly affect Leeward Islands starting Friday
ATLANTIC BASIN
* Tropical Depression strengthening
- Tropical Depression 14 formed over the central tropical Atlantic Tuesday
- It has been slowly gaining strength and could become Tropical Storm Maria later today as it continues to head westward.
- It could directly affect the Leeward Islands on Friday or Saturday and other parts of the northern Caribbean from the Virgin Islands to Hispaniola this weekend.
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