ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#621 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 10:58 pm

h48
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#622 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:05 pm

Looking at this, it is more slower and to the south around hour sixty
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#623 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:07 pm

h72
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#624 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:13 pm

Image
h 96
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

#625 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:15 pm

That is a good bit further south this time running into the islands it looks like and weaker.
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#626 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:16 pm

I notice the remnants of katia? are MUCH further NE than 18z
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#627 Postby Steve H. » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:18 pm

You would think more ridging in the void that Katia leaves.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Wthrman13
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 502
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 12:44 pm
Location: West Lafayette, IN
Contact:
Contact Wthrman13

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#628 Postby Wthrman13 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:19 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
kirium wrote:

Could you explain to me, as I'm new, as to what the "euro" is? sorry, I know it's a newbie question, but trying to follow along.


The Euro is a weather computer model (some consider it to be the most accurate medium range model (4-6 days out)).



Statistically, the ECMWF does tend to outperform the GFS (the "Global Forecasting System" model, which is the U.S.'s operational global model). There are many reasons for this, some of them political. However, for any given case, the GFS can perform better than the ECMWF.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#629 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:20 pm

This is what I mean by that

This is 18z for 9/11/11 at 18z
Image

this is 0z for 9/11/11 18z
Image

Notice the difference
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#630 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:23 pm

h135
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

#631 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:23 pm

at hour 132 a 1020 high is parked right above her
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#632 Postby Steve H. » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:24 pm

Though 95L continues to move north. A suspect solution IMO.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#633 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:31 pm

Image

h159
Last edited by meriland23 on Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

#634 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:31 pm

hrs 138-156 barely moves much.
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

#635 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:33 pm

hr 168 still not moving much?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal168.gif
Last edited by SeminoleWind on Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#636 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:33 pm

Steve H. wrote:Though 95L continues to move north. A suspect solution IMO.


You're right, unless there is like a mid level weakness, but these things never go through a ridge like that, so I believe although the GFS may be showing everything else correctly, the storm movement itself is erroneous

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#637 Postby Meteorcane » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:34 pm

I believe someone posted on a previous thread that the GFS was depicting a (very)upper level weakness it is a few pages back I believe.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#638 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:35 pm

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#639 Postby Steve H. » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:38 pm

Thanks for the posting Meriland23! TIME TO HIT THE SHEETS.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#640 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:39 pm

this one appears to be far slower than z18. At the same time, 0z on the 14th at 18z is nearest to the carolinas, where on the 14th at 18z now is nearest to NY and NJ
Last edited by meriland23 on Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests