ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

I see many people mention the Euro, which is the letter designation for that track?

The Euro isn't on that map.

Could you explain to me, as I'm new, as to what the "euro" is? sorry, I know it's a newbie question, but trying to follow along.

The Euro is a weather computer model (some consider it to be the most accurate medium range model (4-6 days out)).

[HurricaneWarning92]

Convection popping near the center...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rb.html

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 38.1W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z...AND THAT REMAINS THE
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING THROUGH
NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH GENERALLY LOW SHEAR AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SSTS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY
ENTHUSIASTIC AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS AND APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A
LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...YIELDING AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 280/16. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE CYCLONE REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
WHILE THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AMONG THE
MODELS. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE FASTEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE SPEED OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THROUGH 72 HOURS A SMALL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 11.6N 38.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 12.2N 40.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 12.9N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 13.6N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 14.4N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.0N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 18.0N 63.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 21.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[TropicalJon]

Convection popping near the center...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rb.html

It looks to be a tad bit south of forecast points also??

[StarmanHDB]

Could you explain to me, as I'm new, as to what the "euro" is? sorry, I know it's a newbie question, but trying to follow along.

The "Euro" is properly known as the ECMWF Model (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).

[cycloneye]

11 PM Track



Saved image.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Convection popping near the center...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rb.html

It looks to be a tad bit south of forecast points also??

yes. A tad south.

[floridasun78]

did their take maybe maria more nw track after PR?

[SeminoleWind]

did their take maybe maria more nw track after PR?

yes it did

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[cycloneye]

Closest point to San Juan at 11 PM Advisory. Anyone that may want to know at what distance from your location it will pass with every new advisory can go to the site at link below.

http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.3N, 65.3W or about 77.0 miles (123.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 106.7 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 9:42AM AST).

[painkillerr]

Still tracking west....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[meriland23]

What would you personally say are the chances of this hitting the us? I know it is really far out, but you can still make a opinion .
Mine are ..

Not hitting:60%
Hitting: 40%

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS 00Z rolling in...

[meriland23]

I comparison to 18z, gfs behind katia is looks substantially different. But that is so far only like ten hours out.

[meriland23]

h24

[WeatherGuesser]

00z Best Track

Position at latitude is lower than the 11.8N at 5 PM advisory.No upgrade to TS.

AL, 14, 2011090700, , BEST, 0, 114N, 372W, 30, 1008, TD

Named by morning?

[Steve H.]

Where are you Meriland23? In FL?

[cycloneye]

Named by morning?

It depends on how the depression has organized or not in the overnight hours to then have an upgrade at 5 AM.

[meriland23]

Where are you Meriland23? In FL?

Me? naw, minnesota

[Steve H.]

Oh, ok. I went back and looked. You said hitting the us - not us