ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

According to the nhc, they said they are favoring more euros outcome than gfs.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass made around 7:15 PM EDT missed the center of TD14.



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[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.



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[gatorcane]

AH, you beat me to it Cycloneye.

Anyway, looks like XTRAP is more west than the models are showing.

Notice the TVCN track which is NW.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the TVCN track from 00Z guidance, looks like it is east of the current NHC track at 120 hours.

I would think the NHC may bump the 120 hour point to the east a little, but we won't see something more significant unless the ECMWF moves east also, and right now it is on the left-hand side of the guidance envelope.

So I wouldn't expect much in the way of a significant change for the 11pm advisory.

[rainstorm]

appears a consensus is forming for a north track and recurve.

[Weatherboy1]

You're right that the east coast is walled off now. But I don't think that pattern can persist for a full week or more, which is what it would take to deflect "14/Maria". Stranger things have happened but that's a long time for a pattern to stay so static. We'll see!

[floridasun78]

do you see florida been in cone like we saw with irene?

[BensonTCwatcher]

AH, you beat me to it Cycloneye.

Anyway, looks like XTRAP is more west than the models are showing.

Notice the TVCN track which is NW.

Yeah I don't think this misses a recurve. The GFS just looks too fast in the mid term and the ECMWF less so. If iiit is too fast, slim chance, but still a chance this could miss the trough. This might not keep this out of the islands. More watching and waiting, and island folks less so as they might get less warning

[cycloneye]

As rainstorm said earlier,more consensus building.



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[HurricaneWarning92]

Difference between the 18z and 00z (latest) Tropical Models:

18z


00z


For what its worth the BAMS and BAMD shifted to the west and south-west from the previous plot. They are not showing a "recurve", just yet. Also, it is currently moving mainly due west as the XTRP is showing as opposed to wnw.

[Steve H.]

The medium BAM (BAMM) is usually the better of the deep tropical models in this range. I think we will see them shift westward with time.

[floridasun78]

could this take Irene track

[kirium]

I see many people mention the Euro, which is the letter designation for that track?

[SootyTern]

[quote="gatorcane"]If you look at this WV loop, Lee has left a large trough along the East Coast of the United States....as Lee is looking more like a frontal system now, with cold front as far south as central Florida! Models keep this around for days and days and days. So thanks to Lee, The United States may be closed for business until it gets out of here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

You can see the huge "wall" (the white clouds in the image below) protecting the entire coastline of the United States:

That is one humdinger of a trough out there in the Gulf for early Sept. Hard to imagine that persisting. Will be an interesting week with storms developing on both sides of FLA.

[South Texas Storms]

I see many people mention the Euro, which is the letter designation for that track?

The Euro isn't on that map.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Florida in general has been lucky since 2005.

[kirium]

I see many people mention the Euro, which is the letter designation for that track?

The Euro isn't on that map.

Could you explain to me, as I'm new, as to what the "euro" is? sorry, I know it's a newbie question, but trying to follow along.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Given the current motion and the fact that the UK and GFDL are so close, it makes sense to go with the left side of the guidance. 6 hours of not gaining latitude will make for trouble in the leewards and PR. Needs to pull up some latitude. Hope to see that in the morning.

[rainstorm]

I see many people mention the Euro, which is the letter designation for that track?

The Euro isn't on that map.

speaking of the euro it has consistently showing a further south track because it has td14 running into very hostile conditions. euro may be right as i expect td14 to possibly become an open wave. if not, and td 14 steadily deepens it will certainly recurve.