ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

ECm keeps this sheared and rather weak till its north of the islands, actually it goes through PR looking at the convection and reforms north of Hispaniola...

[boca]

Florida will most likely dodge TD 14 too the way the pattern is,its like a conveyor belt.

[Sanibel]

Now it gets interesting. Starting to curl-up.

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[clfenwi]

18Z HWRF keeps it together this time, albeit weakly. Final position is ~ 300 miles north of Puerto Rico.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN 14L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 6

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -35.80 LAT: 11.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -37.50 LAT: 11.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -39.30 LAT: 12.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -40.50 LAT: 12.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -42.50 LAT: 13.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -44.50 LAT: 13.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -46.60 LAT: 13.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -48.50 LAT: 14.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -50.50 LAT: 14.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -52.40 LAT: 14.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -53.90 LAT: 14.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -55.30 LAT: 15.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -56.40 LAT: 15.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -57.50 LAT: 16.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -58.60 LAT: 17.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -59.90 LAT: 18.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -61.40 LAT: 19.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -62.70 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -63.80 LAT: 20.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -64.90 LAT: 21.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -65.80 LAT: 22.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -66.60 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
FORECAST RAN COUPLED TO HOUR: 109.0500 109.0500

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


Wind swath



Loop

[SFLcane]

Here's a look at the 12z GFS EnKF. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/control/

[ROCK]

we are going to need TC to originate on equator to even sniff the the CONUS...

[Rainband]

we are going to need TC to originate on equator to even sniff the the CONUS...

good

[clfenwi]

18Z GFDL

HOUR: .0 LONG: -36.06 LAT: 11.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.43
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -37.79 LAT: 11.75 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.86
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -39.72 LAT: 12.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.84 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.49
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -41.77 LAT: 12.51 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.33
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -44.27 LAT: 12.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.02
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -46.83 LAT: 13.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.82
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -49.44 LAT: 13.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.94
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -52.02 LAT: 14.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.99
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -54.53 LAT: 14.42 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.20 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.64
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -56.58 LAT: 14.93 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.15
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -58.25 LAT: 15.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.56
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -59.87 LAT: 15.82 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.03
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -61.65 LAT: 16.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.76 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.18
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -63.07 LAT: 17.13 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.45 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.82
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -64.67 LAT: 18.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.54 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.26
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -66.19 LAT: 18.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.98
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -67.68 LAT: 19.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.61 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.01
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -68.90 LAT: 20.46 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -70.22 LAT: 21.26 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.54
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -71.45 LAT: 22.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.74
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -72.80 LAT: 23.13 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.89
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -73.91 LAT: 24.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):104.54


Wind swath



Loop

[cycloneye]

The first run of any model that bombs this.

[longislandguy]

we are going to need TC to originate on equator to even sniff the the CONUS...

Excuse my ignorance but what does "TC to originate on equator" mean?

[gatorcane]

If you look at this WV loop, Lee has left a large trough along the East Coast of the United States....as Lee is looking more like a frontal system now, with cold front as far south as central Florida! Models keep this around for days and days and days. So thanks to Lee, The United States may be closed for business until it gets out of here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

You can see the huge "wall" (the white clouds in the image below) protecting the entire coastline of the United States:

[boca]

we are going to need TC to originate on equator to even sniff the the CONUS...

Excuse my ignorance but what does "TC to originate on equator" mean?

The storm would have to originate far enough south to be picked up by any trough.The farther south a storm forms the more west it will likely go.

[cycloneye]

06/2345 UTC 11.4N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 14L -- Atlantic

[Tampa_God]

It looks too good to not be classified a TS by the next advisory. I'm surprised that they don't have it forming into a hurricane sooner. Any reason why? The environment seems almost 100% favorable for intensification, even some rapid intensification. And Katia became a hurricane three times before potential Maria is suppose to become a hurricane.

I hope there isn't a repeat of the Irene situation when the NHC issued the TS and hurricane warnings when the storm was already almost over the VI and PR.

I even questioned the NHC about Irene's forecast before it reached Puerto Rico. Didn't have hurricane warnings out and espected her to be a TS while going over the island. Saw otherwise and look what happened. Not saying I'm an expert (because I'm not).

Seems future Maria needs to build up some convention around the center again before being classified. But circulation seems tight and I see no shear that could prohibit her from becoming a TS.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Position at latitude is lower than the 11.8N at 5 PM advisory.No upgrade to TS.

AL, 14, 2011090700, , BEST, 0, 114N, 372W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[longislandguy]

we are going to need TC to originate on equator to even sniff the the CONUS...

Excuse my ignorance but what does "TC to originate on equator" mean?

The storm would have to originate far enough south to be picked up by any trough.The farther south a storm forms the more west it will likely go.

Thank you. Been a life long weather enthusiast, now trying to learn the actual science behind it all.

[kirium]

Is there any indication that it will start an NW trend at all and miss the leeward islands (british virgin islands, antigua , etc.)?

Obviously I have a vested interest in that, but the latest model that was posted shows it might end up north of them.

Also, when is generally the best time to indicate a storm path? Meaning, when we will have a better idea of it's direction/track for Saturday through Monday?

[meriland23]

So, does this one look like another Katia? Or is it much more possible she will hit the us.

[MWatkins]

Thank you Mike for explaining in detail all about this. So in other words,that turn will occur after the cyclone impacts the NE Caribbean islands right?

Based on that run of the GFS Luis, it would be awfully close for the islands before the turn.

Once again interesting days ahead.

MW