ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BigA]

I would put it at about 11.7 36.7 as of right now (2000Z). Really booking it to the west.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Pretty strong ridging to the north, for now.

Whether it recurves or now, the first concern is for those in the eastern Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

and if this west movement continues, models may start trending back west again.

Just because the GFS got the track right for Katia may not mean it is getting it correct now, though it has support from other models but not the ECMWF.

Still a chance that it is a Caribbean runner, all depends on ridging that builds in once Katia moves out.

Certainly those in Puerto Rico and the Leewards need to monitor this situation.

[HURRICANELONNY]

That's just a little hype. As we know from the previous names. Science is a looong way from understanding mother Nature. Chances are it's out to sea. East coast trough has been setting up shop this year. A bonafide front all the way to central Florida is one reason. This trof is hanging around for awhile.

[cycloneye]

Whether it recurves or now, the first concern is for those in the eastern Caribbean.

Yes,we are the first in the line for TD14/Maria. Personnally,I am not waiting as I am starting to prepare in my house just in case PR gets a second landfall in 2011.

[caribepr]

Whether it recurves or now, the first concern is for those in the eastern Caribbean.

Yes,we are the first in the line for TD14/Maria. Personnally,I am not waiting as I am starting to prepare in my house just in case PR gets a second landfall in 2011.

As it should be, Luis! I'm just glad I'll be home, ready, instead of 4000 nerve wracking miles away...then if it curves out, yippie!

[gatorcane]

Yeah Luis, chances are this is going to come alot closer to you than katia given current movement, lattitude of origin, and synoptics. How strong and how close remains to be seen.

[SuperLikeNintendo]

Usually Conservative Miami...

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE WEEK.

[HurricaneWarning92]

There must be a reason why they have such wording... perhaps they are seeing something the models arent really picking up so they are warning Florida residents to be cautious about the system.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
2100 UTC TUE SEP 06 2011


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 37.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 37.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 36.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.3N 39.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.9N 43.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.7N 47.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N 50.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 20SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 20SE 25SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 17.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 37.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 37.0W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1650 MI...2655 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED
WITHIN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN
BANDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE LEADING TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON A DEVELOPING
TREND...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE PATH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...
FOLLOWING THE LGEM MODEL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS
IT NEARS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED AND WE DID NOT HAVE A WELL
DEFINED CENTER BEFORE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS MOVING THE CYCLONE VERY FAST ON
A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE
SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THESE
TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BIASED A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE
ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 11.8N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.3N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.9N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 13.7N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 14.5N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 17.0N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 19.5N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro ensembles out shortly

[cycloneye]

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 37.0W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1650 MI...2655 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

Luis, under the gun from that track.

[CrazyC83]

That looks like a carbon copy of Irene...

[caribepr]

]http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/1018/203515w5nlsm.gif

The good news about being right in the path this far out is that "most" of the time, it means things will look rather different when the storm actually gets near our location!

[Weatherboy1]

Lots and lots of time to watch this one, for sure, and she looks unlikely (in my opinion) to be a clear "miss" for land like Katia was. Only time will tell of course but models do seem to suggest the Caribbean will have a storm of some sort on its hands!

[cpdaman]

[img]http://img192.imageshack.us/192/1018/203515w5nlsm.gif

The good news about being right in the path this far out is that "most" of the time, it means things will look rather different when the storm actually gets near our location!

to this point...yes most of the time ...it means things will look different...BUT WHEN you think about things...you still have the highest % chance of being hit compared to somewhere not under the gun. if you follow (even thou that highest % chance this far out is lower than 50/50)

[Aric Dunn]

from the discussion. mentioned this problem earlier.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED AND WE DID NOT HAVE A WELL
DEFINED CENTER BEFORE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.

[Aric Dunn]

18Z nam
heading west following the disturbance heading towards the Antilles now.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[gatorcane]

18Z nam
heading west following the disturbance heading towards the Antilles now.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Look at that nice ridge that stretches all the way to the eastern Gulf, through Florida and the Bahamas.