Another Gulf storm? - (Is invest 96L)

[windnrain]

Is it even possible for a storm to develop with this much dry air?

[Hurricanehink]

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY...IF
NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[BigA]

Canadian forms this into a TC, moves it north, then back west toward Mexico, similar to the GFS 12Z run, but it gets somewhat farther north.

12Z FIM/FIMY move this to the northern gulf coast in about 5 days.

I guess whether the trough picks it up will depend on where it forms and how far it moves north.

[Aric Dunn]

yes it can develop with that dry air to its north. there is somewhat of a boundary keeping that away from where the circ is forming. once it develops and that boundary breaks down the dry air will for sure keep it from becoming any significant system right away it would have to hang around for a few days for the environment to improve.

[N2Storms]

[quote="BigA"]Canadian forms this into a TC, moves it north, then back west toward Mexico, similar to the GFS 12Z run, but it gets somewhat farther north.

12Z FIM/FIMY move this to the northern gulf coast in about 5 days.

I guess whether the trough picks it up will depend on where it forms and how far it moves north.[/quote]



The Local TV Mets (here in Panama City) seem to be hitching their wagons the GFS/Canadian solution. Said this morning that they believe there will be TC developement in BOC but it should go west into Mexico and not be a threat to impact us up here.

[petit_bois]

I can only assume they will make this an invest soon... possible recon and all

[underthwx]

New Orleans..a.f.d.
ALL MODELS BRING A STRONG SHORT WAVE AROUND THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CAUSING A STRONG TROUGH
TO ONCE AGAIN DIG AND MOVE SOUTHWARD. THIS IS THE WEAKNESS THAT
MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKS ARE SHOWING BREAKING THE RIDGE AND
PULLING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST. THE INTERESTING
THING IS THAT THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THIS SAME WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BUT BUILDS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE DISTURBANCE CUTTING OFF ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS.


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[dwsqos2]

12Z Euro is pretty aggressive in the short-term; has a 994 mb low by hour 72.

[clfenwi]

12Z UKMET hopped on the development bandwagon

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 19.6N 92.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.09.2011 19.6N 92.7W MODERATE

00UTC 08.09.2011 20.2N 92.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2011 20.5N 92.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 09.09.2011 21.0N 92.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2011 21.5N 92.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2011 22.4N 92.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2011 23.5N 92.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.09.2011 24.5N 92.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.09.2011 24.9N 91.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.09.2011 24.7N 91.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.09.2011 24.4N 91.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro has a hurricane heading for the Gulf coast



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[BigA]

12Z UKMET hopped on the development bandwagon

I have trouble believing the UKMET's solution of having it go up to 25 north and then just mill about. I know Roxanne meandered around the BOC in 1995, but it was moving west , not north, when it started meandering. It seems that a storm that moves from 20 to 25 north would be feeling enough of a weakness that it would keep moving northward, unless strong ridging developed over the Northern Gulf/Gulf Coast.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is very bullish on development. It also sends it northward to the northern Gulf coast and it is the only model showing that right now. CMC and GFS send it WNW to central Mexico. Big model spread right now.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro...hurricane heading NNE toward Mobile, Alabama



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[rockyman]

Euro in the 970s in 96 hours, heading NE

[BigA]

12z Euro is very bullish on development. It also sends it northward to the northern Gulf coast and it is the only model showing that right now. CMC and GFS send it WNW to central Mexico. Big model spread right now.

The FIM experimental model has a solution very close to the Euro's.

The UKMET essentially stalls it in the central GOM.

NOGAPS sends it toward Florida.

Huge model spread. Almost all show development. Interesting week ahead.

[lonelymike]

HPC/NHC keep this disturbance in the Bay of Campeche thru day 7.

[maxintensity]

Saving grace - Lee knocked SST's down significantly along the gulf coast. Although he was only a tropical storm, because he just sat in the same spot for days and days he was able to put a dent in SST's, possibly saving the gulf coast from a much meaner storm. Let's hope this thing hurries up and doesnt allow the SST's enough time to recover. That would be the best case scenario after the record warmth in the gulf this year.

[tobol.7uno]

HWRF brings the system to Florida.

[Ivanhater]

The Euro is concerning..960's mb. Kind of reminds me of Opal, out of the BOC heading NE.

[maxintensity]

HWRF brings the system to Florida.

Nope, you can't look at a model run for Katia and look at where a different storm might go. Because of the model resolution you have to have a separate run for each storm. HWRF was not run for this system because it is not an invest.