Another Gulf storm? - (Is invest 96L)

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nashrobertsx
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#41 Postby nashrobertsx » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:41 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:No mention from Baton Rouge or Mobile NWS office's afternoon long range discussion. Thought at least they would mention it since a good number of models are showing the possibility. Guess they are worrying about Lee's forecast first.

The Baton Rouge office and New Orleans office are the same, and LIX (New Orleans did mention it). Mobile is still dealing with Lee remnants and probably didn't want to get people down after a dreary 5 days ;-). Something could/ might develop. Time will tell. Models are certainly hinting at something.
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#42 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:52 pm

0z NAM continues to be aggresive with development in the BOC in a few days.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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#43 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:16 pm

Looks like the 0zGFS develops some good 850mb vorticity in 30-36hrs and speed looks to be a crawl thru 78hrs..

0zGFS forecast valid for midnight Friday, the 850mb vorticity just west of the Yucatan Peninsula.

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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#44 Postby tobol.7uno » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:17 pm

I don't expect this system to be such a slow mover, it should ride the frontal boundary that it is forming along and push northeast toward Florida or the northeast gulf coast. There is nothing backing this yet though that I have seen.
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#45 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:18 pm

GFS hasn't been as bullish on development as the Euro so far. One of them has to give.
Edit: 0z GFS is more bullish this run.
Last edited by South Texas Storms on Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#46 Postby tobol.7uno » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:21 pm

GFS really getting this now...
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#47 Postby tobol.7uno » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:22 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:GFS hasn't been as bullish on development as the Euro so far. One of them has to give.

Looks like GFS is the one that is going to give.
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#48 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:28 pm

May just go into mexico who knows :lol:
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#49 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:30 pm

At a 150 hrs just sitting right off mexican coast.





http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#50 Postby tobol.7uno » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:31 pm

bigdan35 wrote:May just go into mexico who knows :lol:


Well you know anything is possible. Waiting for the end of the GFS run to see what they are going to do with it.
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#51 Postby tobol.7uno » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:37 pm

Looks like GFS is going to bring it west into Mexico. Yet to see the rest of the model run. Waiting to see!
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#52 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:37 pm

yes it went into mexico so far on this run.






http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#53 Postby tobol.7uno » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:42 pm

bigdan35 wrote:yes it went into mexico so far on this run.
http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

Yes, I saw. Do you think that it will go to Mexico? It is forming along a front and that should pull it off the northeast at a pretty good clip right?
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#54 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:47 pm

It could get pulled northeast I think it depends on how fast it develops if at all also noticed something may get started in the caribbean.



http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#55 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:50 pm

Do yall think it could come to Texas?
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#56 Postby tobol.7uno » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:50 pm

bigdan35 wrote:It could get pulled northeast I think it depends on how fast it develops if at all also noticed something may get started in the caribbean.



http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

Wow! That one right into Fl. But this model is way to far out to even make the first assumption that it is correct.
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#57 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:52 pm

:) lala land gfs ;ook out west coast Florida
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#58 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:56 pm

yes I wish some rain would get to you folks in Texas everything seems to be all around you folks :cry:
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#59 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:58 pm

bigdan35 wrote:yes I wish some rain would get to you folks in Texas everything seems to be all around you folks :cry:


Yeah it's been like that all summmer. It has to change. Much better now than later.
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Re: Another Gulf storm?

#60 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:59 pm

I think that this is the wave behind 95L that goes up the west coast of Florida.




http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/
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