ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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stormchazer
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Re:

#201 Postby stormchazer » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:16 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote::uarrow: but models arent bombing this one...they seem to not like it for development.


It is true they are not developing this as quickly as it appears to be developing in reality but it is my observation that the models this year have not performed well early in TC development, both in track and strength.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

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#202 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:17 pm

Near guadeloupe at H102...at this point the strength is academic but the synoptics are concerning for the islands.
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#203 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:18 pm

H114 near St marteen...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#204 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:20 pm

120 just north of St Thomas.
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#205 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:21 pm

H126 ridge reloading turning more w/wnw just NE of PR..Located at 20/65...
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#206 Postby rainstorm » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:22 pm

anyone have a map?
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Re: Re:

#207 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:
SootyTern wrote:I assume 95L is what Miami NWS is mentioning here in the 1400 forecast discussion:

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLORIDA
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE WEEK.

Don't often see them use this language for something so far out in the future.


Yeah I usually don't see them talk about systems that are this far out.

But climatologically speaking, the next 2 to 3 weeks or so is when South Florida is most vulnerable from the east.


That is odd for them to talk about something that far out. Still, the occasional August storm and October straggler notwithstanding, the entirety of September is *the* month for SFL Cape Verde hits.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#208 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:23 pm

135 hrs noth of Puerto Rico
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#209 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:27 pm

That trough over the eastern United States just does not want to budge does it?

No way on this run I can see the system getting to the CONUS
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#210 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:28 pm

H144 intensifying but more NW, "could" be a recurve after islands at least this run when given positioning and synoptics..Btw, until we get consistancy take the run to run models lightly beyond 5 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#211 Postby maxintensity » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:29 pm

Looks like no worries for the USA this run. Our 6 year luck looks to continue if GFS is right.
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#212 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:30 pm

Could be a threat to Bermuda on this run. Ridge collapses, turning out to sea
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#213 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:31 pm

Its not moving to fast east of Bahamas
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#214 Postby Jevo » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:33 pm

+147 finally something GFS doesnt have this system yet

Image

+177 recuring

Image
Last edited by Jevo on Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#215 Postby maxintensity » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:34 pm

Jevo, it has it much much sooner than that. You might not see it clearly on the graphics your posting but the GFS sees 95L very clearly. No mystery there.
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#216 Postby rainstorm » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:37 pm

i hope next season we have a bermuda high. that trough has been there for 3 years. irene barely snuck in.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#217 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:37 pm

maxintensity wrote:Jevo, it has it much much sooner than that. You might not see it clearly on the graphics your posting but the GFS sees 95L very clearly. No mystery there.


Yes,you can track the low pressure all the way to the Lesser Antilles and starts slowly to gain strengh from there.
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#218 Postby Jevo » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:42 pm

18z GFS +240 (GFS is clearly out to lunch on this run.. had a borderline cat one plowing into a 1024mb ridge with no troughs)

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#219 Postby Jevo » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:
maxintensity wrote:Jevo, it has it much much sooner than that. You might not see it clearly on the graphics your posting but the GFS sees 95L very clearly. No mystery there.


Yes,you can track the low pressure all the way to the Lesser Antilles and starts slowly to gain strengh from there.


you can definitely see little circles all the way there nothing to speak of though.. could easily be confused for an ULL.. but I don't believe the GFS has a grasp on the system yet
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#220 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:51 pm

at 384 hrs out in lala land there is a storm south southeast of Miami :lol:
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