Another Gulf storm? - (Is invest 96L)

[Rgv20]

THE ONLY ITEM TO NOTE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT LEAST BY THURSDAY. BUT UPPER PATTERN IS SUCH THAT
SYSTEM WOULD ONLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND BE WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY.


excerpt from Corpus afd...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If something were to develop it looks like its going to be another slow mover.

[stormy70]

I am praying nothing develops because this area could not take much more of the rain and if it does develop maybe it would bring much needed rain to TX with no wind.

[lostsole]

Posted this on the model page so decided to move it over here as well. Looks like we have some decent model support for possible development down there later this week. Something definitely to watch for. Wednesday or thursday looks to be the time to really start watching things down there. Makes me think back to Opal from years ago. She didn't form on the tail end of a stalled out cold front but did come out the BOC and bombed overnight while moving north in the gulf. Scared the you know what out of folks around here.

No Opal please

[lostsole]

I am praying nothing develops because this area could not take much more of the rain and if it does develop maybe it would bring much needed rain to TX with no wind.

Actually the rain was no big deal, we get this much in spring low pressure systems, actually we get more! However I do not want a big storm, and thanks for starting this thread as I will be glued to it!

[hriverajr]

And if it did form and hit the central gulf coast..it would just dry out Texas more The upper level high pressure continues to lurk just to our west.
I fear if we don't get some decent rain this fall, then we are totally screwed!

[South Texas Storms]

And if it did form and hit the central gulf coast..it would just dry out Texas more The upper level high pressure continues to lurk just to our west.
I fear if we don't get some decent rain this fall, then we are totally screwed!

I agree. Do you think we will have any more tropical threats this season?

[underthwx]

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL IN THE LOWER 60S MAYBE A FEW
UPPER 50S TO THE NORTH. STARTING TO WARM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
DID PUT LOW POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BASED MAINLY ON THE
GFS SHOWING A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EURO HAS A VERY WEAK LOW THAT AREA. /11


Mobile Al.....mfd..(long-term)

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
REINFORCE THE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A BROAD 500MB LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HINTING AT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS LIFTING THE LOW NORTHEAST
TOWARDS FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE
ECMWF BRINGING THIS FEATURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF A LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BUT IF THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW WESTWARD...THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT
OF RAIN FOR NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER
NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HOT TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

and..Brownsville mfd..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

NHC 8 a.m. TWD excerpt

This explains the components to generate a possible development of the Low Pressure later this week down in the BOC.


THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG THE S COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO BETWEEN EL
SALVADOR TO NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N BETWEEN
91W-95W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIG SE THROUGH THE W GULF TODAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY FROM NE GULF TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED THROUGH
FRI.

The low level surface pressure convergence in the BOC with the frontal boundary stalling and the interaction with the trough just may spawn cyclogenesis in the Wednesday - Friday time period. It will be interesting to monitor this week down there for sure.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

You can already see things starting to pop down in the BOC. Will be interesting to watch and see if this evolves. With more model support today wonder if we could see an invest declared tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[tropicwatch]

TWC just mentioned possible developement in the Gulf by this weekend and moving towards Florida. I don't know how they are figuring movement at this point but Good grief

Tropicwatch

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah the bay of campeche and western gulf needs to be watched closely. already signs of a weak circ developing. motion would likely be to the NE after a slow drift for a couple days

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[underthwx]

NWS Panama City FL...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Tornado Watch
Flash Flood Watch
Severe Weather Statement
High Surf Advisory
Wind Advisory
Coastal Flood Watch
Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook


looks like a full day..and yet...the tropics dont seem to be paying much attention....

.LAST FEW RUNS OF GFS ARE TRYING TO
DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN HEAVILY TO THE DRIER ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS....

Aric... would share your thoughts on a drier solution



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

this is some convergence down there....but some OBs also...nothing going at the surface..needs to sit a cook some more...

[BigA]

NAM is nothing if not persistant on development. Has a full-blown hurricane in the BOC in 60 hours. Too aggressive. But with the Euro forming somthing and the GFS and CMC on and off, it could happen.

[Pearl River]

This from Slidell:

000
FXUS64 KLIX 052043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2011


A PERIOD OF VERY NICE EARLY FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW DURING THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH...ASSOCIATED
WITH WHAT WAS LEE...BECOMES POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH GULF OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED

[underthwx]

THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SORT OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS WEEK IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE
TRAILING EDGE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS DIFFER
GREATLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WEST TEXAS IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD TAKE THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

houston afd...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[maxx9512]

From Tampa Bay NWS...

120 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...WITH GFS AND DGEX
LEANING TOWARDS DEVELOPING A SFC LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND
TRACKING IT INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
EMBRACE THIS SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH NOW HAVING TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
LOW FORMATION CALLS FOR PAYING EXTRA ATTENTION TO UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND`S
FORECAST. FOR NOW...

[LaBreeze]

No mention from Baton Rouge or Mobile NWS office's afternoon long range discussion. Thought at least they would mention it since a good number of models are showing the possibility. Guess they are worrying about Lee's forecast first.

Could it be that it may be more of a concern down the road for the NE GOM - Florida mainly. No effects to be felt here in the NW GOM from this system? Just wondering. By no way is this any type of prediction or -removed-, just questions.

[RachelAnna]

And if it did form and hit the central gulf coast..it would just dry out Texas more The upper level high pressure continues to lurk just to our west.
I fear if we don't get some decent rain this fall, then we are totally screwed!

I agree. Do you think we will have any more tropical threats this season?

Wild fires moving closer and closer to my house all the time. A good one going about five miles away that is 0% contained. Makes the drought all the more realistic. And, makes me think the only way that this is going to end is with a tropical system. So, seeing something go into the north central or north east gulf is almost heart breaking at this point.

[Pearl River]

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
No mention from Baton Rouge or Mobile NWS office's afternoon long range discussion. Thought at least they would mention it since a good number of models are showing the possibility. Guess they are worrying about Lee's forecast first.


LaBreeze
Could it be that it may be more of a concern down the road for the NE GOM - Florida mainly. No effects to be felt here in the NW GOM from this system? Just wondering. By no way is this any type of prediction or -removed-, just questions.

Actually, they did:

This from Slidell:

000
FXUS64 KLIX 052043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2011


A PERIOD OF VERY NICE EARLY FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW DURING THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH...ASSOCIATED
WITH WHAT WAS LEE...BECOMES POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH GULF OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.