Another Gulf storm? - (Is invest 96L)

[Ivanhater]

GFS has been on to another system developing in the BOC and heading up toward the northern Gulf coast. Last night, the Euro jumped on board.

06z GFS



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00Z Euro



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[BigA]

The FIM/FIMY experimental models also develop a tropical cyclone in the same time frame.

[PTrackerLA]

Very interesting developments down there. Looks like the Gulf is far from done this season.

[wxman57]

Bogus storm, I think. GFS has that problem with the BoC when cold fronts start moving into the area. I doubt it'll be more than a naturally-occurring frontal wave/weak low in the BoC for a few days. Euro and Canadian show a weak low that dissipates down there, and the Euro's low on the map above is for a week from now, not 2 days from now as per the GFS.

[vbhoutex]

Very interesting developments down there. Looks like the Gulf is far from done this season.

Gotta cool that bathtub down somehow. If it comes to fruition it looks like it will be taking a track, based on the models posted, that no one really needs after dealing with Lee.

[cycloneye]

At the 12z run of GFS is a Mexico storm.



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[BigA]

12Z Canadian more aggressive in development than the 00Z run. Quite similar to the 00 and 06 GFS runs. Deepening and lifting NNE in 144 hours.



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Seems to form from energy from the trough breaking off in the BOC, similar to the GFS setup.

Low forms in 4-5 days, so not that long-range.

Lets see what Euro says

[underthwx]

THE TAIL END OF THE
MONDAY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...
WHERE THE GFS IS HINTING AT THE SPIN UP OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA...
WHICH MAY DEEPEN SOMEWHAT RIGHT AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM...BUT
THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS FARTHER IN THE FUTURE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME


portion of brownsville afd...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[rockyman]

18z NAM is on board...here is the 84 hour map:

[underthwx]

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION AS WE WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL US AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DEVELOPED A WEAK SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
DOES NOT.


houston afd....
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Portastorm]

Wouldn't be the first time a decaying frontal boundary spun up a low in the Bay of Campeche. I'm guessing that would be the driver for something to form.

So far, model guidance seems to suggest a threat more to the Central and Eastern Gulf coast.

[rockyman]

12z NOGAPS starts cranking in the BOC in 48 hours:


Stays weak and heads slowly northeast through Day 6

[bigdan35]

I think things could get interesting next week in the gulf or Caribbean










http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[rockyman]

18z GFS running...shows festering low pressure in the BOC and NW Caribbean through 66 hours.

[underthwx]

THE ONLY ITEM TO NOTE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT LEAST BY THURSDAY. BUT UPPER PATTERN IS SUCH THAT
SYSTEM WOULD ONLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND BE WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY.


excerpt from Corpus afd...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bigdan35]

So far thru 87hrs on gfs nothing much but we will see









http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[rockyman]

18z GFS:

Monday through Thursday--gradually lowering pressures over the Bay of Campeche and northwest Caribbean

Friday through Sunday--low closes off and deepens to 1005, begins moving NNE, just north of Yucatan Peninsula...tropical depression or weak tropical storm moving toward the northern Gulf Coast by Sunday

Monday, Sept 12--Landfall near Panama City as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm

[bigdan35]

looking so far could be a north or northeast gulf storm but who knows










http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Posted this on the model page so decided to move it over here as well. Looks like we have some decent model support for possible development down there later this week. Something definitely to watch for. Wednesday or thursday looks to be the time to really start watching things down there. Makes me think back to Opal from years ago. She didn't form on the tail end of a stalled out cold front but did come out the BOC and bombed overnight while moving north in the gulf. Scared the you know what out of folks around here.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

No mention from Baton Rouge or Mobile NWS office's afternoon long range discussion. Thought at least they would mention it since a good number of models are showing the possibility. Guess they are worrying about Lee's forecast first.