ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS +144 (After sitting and spinning for 28 hours off to the races)

Maybe Katia is bringing her new toy offshore of the Mid Atlantic



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[supercane]

Latest imagery:
Vis:

Earlier microwave:

[Nimbus]

At the moment the trough is still there off the east coast of the US and Katia is steadily gaining latitude. If the same pattern were to persist Katia would continue WNW until she reached the trough and simply recurve inside Bermuda without posing a threat to the continental US.

The models are talking about the trough closing off into an ULL or perhaps filling in and being replaced by a ridge. The northern part of the trough is pulling further north and the southern part is becoming shallower. I really thought the upper air pattern would be easier to forecast at this point but there is still a lot of disagreement amongst the models and apparently even between forecasters.

The intensity forecast is pretty clear we have a good eye and not too much shear so a major hurricane is on the way.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +144 (After sitting and spinning for 28 hours off to the races)

Maybe Katia is bringing her new toy offshore of the Mid Atlantic



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hahahah Good stuff...

12z GFS +159

[BigA]

Looks like a bit of a more westward movement.t in the short term. Probably a jog.

[supercane]

Summary of 12Z GFS and comparison with earlier runs:

[sponger]

The GFS gives us a swell machine off NC. If only that would verify!

[cycloneye]

I was somewhat expecting recon and G-IV dropsonde drops to start on Tuesday, but that appears to not be the case for the time-being. Possible research mission, though.

NOUS42 KNHC 041500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 04 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-096
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION
FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF 06/1100Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
VJH

Hmmm ,is very rare to not see recon go especially,if it becomes a major and in the position where it is.

[Hurricaneman]

I seriously doubt this is going to turn ENE because no other model has this going ENE NE maybe, but I cant see ENE

[pricetag56]

looking at the latest visible this has to be a major hurricane now correct

[maxintensity]

Through 72 hours euro has shifted closer towards the gfs solution. This is an encouraging sign. Lets see how much further east the euro is this run.

[cpdaman]

recurve syndrome in effect this aft

euro out thru 72 hrs...noticeable more NW (by about 150 miles on day 2) and ditto day 3.

[storm4u]

i wouldnt say that yet hr 96 is scary for the carolinas

recurve syndrome in effect this aft

euro out thru 72 hrs...noticeable more NW (by about 150 miles on day 2) and ditto day 3.

[Hurricaneman]

I was somewhat expecting recon and G-IV dropsonde drops to start on Tuesday, but that appears to not be the case for the time-being. Possible research mission, though.

NOUS42 KNHC 041500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 04 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-096
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION
FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF 06/1100Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
VJH

Hmmm ,is very rare to not see recon go especially,if it becomes a major and in the position where it is.

They don't expect this to come near land, but if this comes near land or make landfall, people are going to be go crazy and question the recon crew or the NHC, in this case the NHC shouldnt be questioned as they follow the guidance and other data to come to their forecast, but recon should be tasked and a go

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 SEP 2011 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 22:11:36 N Lon : 59:28:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 974.5mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.3 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -3.5C Cloud Region Temp : -64.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW AdjEnd
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.3 degrees

[maxintensity]

i wouldnt say that yet hr 96 is scary for the carolinas

recurve syndrome in effect this aft

euro out thru 72 hrs...noticeable more NW (by about 150 miles on day 2) and ditto day 3.

if you think thats scary, look at what the 0z had. And 12z ukmet should have everyone breathing a sigh of relief.

Through 120 hours ecmwf is headed out to sea.

[CrazyC83]

looking at the latest visible this has to be a major hurricane now correct

I'd go with 90 kt (pressure 957mb) right now based on improvements since the buoy reports but nothing supports much higher.

[Macrocane]

I'd go with 95 kt-100 kt, very small eye has appeard on IR and it has been present in the visibles for several hours. I think they will go with cat 3 on the next advisory.

[Extratropical94]

04/1745 UTC 22.3N 59.6W T5.0/5.0 KATIA -- Atlantic

90 knots

[CrazyC83]

04/1745 UTC 22.3N 59.6W T5.0/5.0 KATIA -- Atlantic

90 knots

Since the last buoy report went well over Dvorak, I would then go 95 kt (pressure 954mb) after seeing that.