ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

#2381 Postby **supercane** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:20 am

00Z GFS slightly more west early but then has a sharper recurve out to sea than prior runs:

#2382 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:28 am

So.....who is going to post tonight's Euro??

#2383 Postby **Jevo** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:34 am

0z Euro +120

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0z Euro +144

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maxintensity · #2384 Postby **maxintensity** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:35 am

Euro is nothing like GFS. At 144 is staring down the outer banks of NC. Will be very close call as to what happens next. Due N or NNE?

#2385 Postby **Jevo** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:39 am

0z Euro +168 (coming awfully close to NC)

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#2386 Postby **xironman** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:40 am

Euro has been trending west 50-100 miles every run.

#2387 Postby **Jevo** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:41 am

0z Euro has a new solutions that should have the OBX watching this closely

0z Euro +168

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#2388 Postby **BigA** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:42 am

100 miles more west and that Euro is a nightmare.

maxintensity · #2389 Postby **maxintensity** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:43 am

The high breaks down hrs 96-144 but then begins to strengthen after 144 hours so it will be close. GFS and Euro are far apart though so something will have to give.

meriland23 · #2390 Postby **meriland23** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:44 am

Scary thing is how reputable euro is. The are the most superior, more-so than any other model, including GFS. This is like looking down the bottom of a barrel to me. So EURO is most SW and GFS is much more NE the more time passes, how does that happen? The more east one goes, the more west another goes. So strange. I am fearful that this really could be the outcome and time is really limited to get people OUT of there. Even if it is a 'just in case' it needs to be initiated now, last minute evacuations are so irresponsible. Just to get others thoughts, what is your opinion on the EURO 12z vs this one. For me it looks more west now, but I could be just seeing things.

#2391 Postby **xironman** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:46 am

May get a nudge to the left at 5am
12z

0z

maxintensity · #2392 Postby **maxintensity** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:47 am

meriland23 wrote:Scary thing is how reputable euro is. The are the most superior, more-so than any other model, including GFS. This is like looking down the bottom of a barrel to me. So EURO is most SW and GFS is much more NE the more time passes, how does that happen? The more east one goes, the more west another goes. So strange. I am fearful that this really could be the outcome and time is really limited to get people OUT of there. Even if it is a 'just in case' it needs to be initiated now, last minute evacuations are so irresponsible. Just to get others thoughts, what is your opinion on the EURO 12z vs this one. For me it looks more west now, but I could be just seeing things.

It is slightly further west on its closest approach to the US. As far evacuations though, after what happened with Irene you can forget anyone evacuating. Plus, politicians will be very nervous about calling for evacuations after being accused of hyping irene.

xironman where do you get that euro image from?

#2393 Postby **Jevo** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:48 am

meriland23 wrote:Scary thing is how reputable euro is. The are the most superior, more-so than any other model, including GFS. This is like looking down the bottom of a barrel to me. So EURO is most SW and GFS is much more NE the more time passes, how does that happen? The more east one goes, the more west another goes. So strange. I am fearful that this really could be the outcome and time is really limited to get people OUT of there. Even if it is a 'just in case' it needs to be initiated now, last minute evacuations are so irresponsible. Just to get others thoughts, what is your opinion on the EURO 12z vs this one. For me it looks more west now, but I could be just seeing things.

Definitely closer to the coast by at least 1 degree (60nm)

12z Euro @ 168

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vs

0z Euro @ 168

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#2394 Postby **xironman** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:50 am

maxintensity wrote:It is slightly further west on its closest approach to the US. As far evacuations though, after what happened with Irene you can forget anyone evacuating. Plus, politicians will be very nervous about calling for evacuations after being accused of hyping irene.

Route 12 on the OBX has a breach, so they need to evac by ferry. Right now they are bring back residents over the next couple of days. If this keeps up that may stop.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

meriland23 · #2395 Postby **meriland23** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:51 am

Nhc may say they are in-between GF and EU but to me, their track looks like 90% GF favored than EU and I can't understand why.

#2396 Postby **xironman** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:52 am

Jevo wrote:
Definitely closer to the coast by at least 1 degree (60nm)

It is about 6 hours slower to, lets the high build back.

meriland23 · #2397 Postby **meriland23** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:54 am

maxintensity wrote:
meriland23 wrote:Scary thing is how reputable euro is. The are the most superior, more-so than any other model, including GFS. This is like looking down the bottom of a barrel to me. So EURO is most SW and GFS is much more NE the more time passes, how does that happen? The more east one goes, the more west another goes. So strange. I am fearful that this really could be the outcome and time is really limited to get people OUT of there. Even if it is a 'just in case' it needs to be initiated now, last minute evacuations are so irresponsible. Just to get others thoughts, what is your opinion on the EURO 12z vs this one. For me it looks more west now, but I could be just seeing things.
It is slightly further west on its closest approach to the US. As far evacuations though, after what happened with Irene you can forget anyone evacuating. Plus, politicians will be very nervous about calling for evacuations after being accused of hyping irene.

xironman where do you get that euro image from?

That is so sad. I mean, you tell people to leave for Irene kind of as a precaution and since it was over hyped (rightfully so, otherwise people would have stayed behind and possibly died from the flooding) people treat it like 'the boy who cried wolf' assuming all hurricanes are overhyped, and roll their eyes and continue.

#2398 Postby **Jevo** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:55 am

Bastardi is going to be all over this in tomorrow morning's tweet.. He lovessss the Euro

meriland23 · #2399 Postby **meriland23** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:56 am

I wonder if nhc will note this shift west on the euro in their next update.

meriland23 · #2400 Postby **meriland23** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:58 am

Latest spaghetti model, looks like a vase of flowers, that is how spread out these things are getting.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... el%20plots

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