ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[southerngale]

I am happy to say that it's been raining here nonstop since about noonish. Quite windy as well. Looking at various KFDM Instaweather stations (Weatherbug), many gusts in the 30s and 40s, with the highest I saw being 49.

I hope this expands west to include the Houston area.

[pwrdog]

Looking around at several places in SW La I've found 985mb to 988mb...

What a unique storm....

It even seems like it's trying to cut off the dry air by just spreading it's wings..

Winds fairly gusty from Florida to well down the Texas coast..

The outflow is a good 1200 miles x 700 miles..

[jabman98]

I hope this expands west to include the Houston area.

I've got the Houston radar up and as it rotates the outer bit of the green is just on the edge of Harris County. Whether the dry air keeps it there or it moves in remains to be seen. Watching the radar, the moisture looks to be moving a tiny bit west-ish, but who knows.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

:uarrow: It definitely looks like it's moving North now at about 2 or 3 MPH.

Not so sure about that tailgater. Look at Lake Charles radar and zoom in a couple of times due south of Crowley. Looks like it is just hanging right on the coast spinning trying to get a bit better organized as PT said.

I posted that with a lot of sarcasm.

Sorry tailgater obviously didnt catch that In serious mode getting ready for the game

[Frank P]

We just had our best feeder band on the beach in Biloxi yet at 6:00 pm today... driving hard rains with wind gusts to at least 40 mph... blowing steady now about 25 to 30 mph... no real surge to speak of.. did get about 3 feet above normal early this morning...

[Airboy]

A lot of people probably are happy that the storm is not out in the middle of Gulf right now.

[Wayne]

The wife has asked me a question i cant answer..... The Weather channel keeps talkinf about thunderstorms.... We have not seen or heard any thunderstorms, come to think of if i never saw any during, Katrina, Rita etc.....

[hriverajr]

Looking at the last four hours of radar... it definitely has drifted to the west. Outer rain band getting real close to Baytown area. I wonder how close the rain will get to Houston proper?
On another note.. pretty strong front moving through the Texas panhandle

[midnight8]

The wife has asked me a question i cant answer..... The Weather channel keeps talkinf about thunderstorms.... We have not seen or heard any thunderstorms, come to think of if i never saw any during, Katrina, Rita etc.....

I have seen some video of lightning during Rita here in Orange. None here during Ik or Humberto though.

[Wayne]

KF5KWF

Re-modeling the shack else would be on radio....

W5YNE is the call

[LSU2001]

We had a good bit of lightening early this morning when a couple of squalls came through in the pre-dawn hours.
tim

[midnight8]

KF5KWF

Re-modeling the shack else would be on radio....

W5YNE is the call

My shack is a 5 x 5 closet in my bedroom. On a 2 meter net now.

[Kory]

So is the heavy rain threat over for New Orleans? Are we going to see another flare up of convection during the diurnal max? Just wondering since the strongest of the winds are forecasted to affect us tomorrow and I'm worried about possible uprooted trees.

[NC George]

The wife has asked me a question i cant answer..... The Weather channel keeps talkinf about thunderstorms.... We have not seen or heard any thunderstorms, come to think of if i never saw any during, Katrina, Rita etc.....

There was some big thunder at my location as Irene was pulling away.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MEANDERS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 92.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST.
LEE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...HOWEVER A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
TONIGHT. A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ONSHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SEVERAL ELEVATED OFFSHORE OIL RIGS SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 44 AND 48 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM OFFSHORE OIL RIGS INDICATE
THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

...LEE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MEANDERS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 92.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[gone2beach]

We are just under 7" of rain now since the storm began.

[BigA]

The WRF/DGEX seems to have the same solution as the NAM, sending Lee back into the GOM for several days.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/18zdgex.html

[Airboy]

Crazy looking storm. Is't possible that the center dies of over land and an new one develops at the "end of the tail" where much of the convection are located?

[Annie Oakley]

Don't be cruel to Mississippi

http://youtu.be/D_XXtuOvKcg