ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

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bayoubebe
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2561 Postby bayoubebe » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:07 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
BigA wrote:
ROCK wrote:[]

But even if the front didn't reach Lee, why would he move rapidly southward rather than remain stationary? What synoptic set-up would cause that motion that the NAM is seeing? Nearly due south motion for TCs is exceedingly rare. Off the top of my head, I can only think of Isidore (2002) in the last decade when trying to remember storms that moved nearly due south at some pont.


The NAM is showing high pressure rebulind north of Lee once the trough bypasses him. The HP then pushes down whatever is of Lee back into the gulf. Then sits there until the next trough comes down and picks him back up. Entertaining at least!

When is this supposed to happen? (what the NAM is saying)
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2562 Postby sittingduck » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:08 pm

Thanks BigA - Lee has sure been interesting to watch for the last day - although I do feel for those getting too much rain but am happy that Texas is getting some. I will never forget the days and days of rain and wind from Frances in 04
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2563 Postby LSU2001 » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:13 pm

I posted on the previous page that the NHC is forecasting the first front to miss Lee. It may stay stationary but if the high builds back in then it could move back out. quite a few of the models were forecasting a loop a couple of days ago so I guess anything is possible with this storm.
Tim
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#2564 Postby jabman98 » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:17 pm

When is this second front supposed to get here? Edit: By "here" I mean where Lee is.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Models

#2565 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:20 pm

NAM model looks very interesting for Lee. NAM has handled Lee well.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2566 Postby Turtle » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:21 pm

For the past 50 minutes I have been in the dark blue / light green area of Lee. It seems like it doesn't want to build any further. I'm located west of Shreveport. Hopefully the rain will spread <10 miles to get to me. :P
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Re: ATL: LEE - Models

#2567 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:24 pm

the 18Z GFS having none of the NAM....shoots him off to the NE to meet Kat...
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2568 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:25 pm

Radar returns really starting to fill in nicely around Lee's LLC. Probably the best it's look on radar since it's been in range. Also notice some of the convection on the west side of the circulation starting to trying to wrap around. Lee's last stand? :lol:

Updated forecast for tonight still says wind gusts to 60mph possible through tomorrow so we may have not seen the worst of Lee yet especially if the convection wraps around.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2569 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:27 pm

LSU2001 wrote:I posted on the previous page that the NHC is forecasting the first front to miss Lee. It may stay stationary but if the high builds back in then it could move back out. quite a few of the models were forecasting a loop a couple of days ago so I guess anything is possible with this storm.
Tim


Hey Tim good to see you back on here. Wonder if the models will start showing the high rebuilding in just enough to push Lee back south into the gulf. That is if the trough really does bypass to the north. Will be interesting to watch for sure.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2570 Postby wicked_wx_watcher » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:28 pm

At Crystal Beach, Bolivar Peninsula, gusty winds...water laid low from the North....rain bands starting to move in. Hopefully Lee will continue a slight western track. :D :D :D
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Re: ATL: LEE - Models

#2571 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:30 pm

ROCK, how about the timeframes. Does Lee still sit down here til late monday or does this first trough get him?
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2572 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:31 pm

:uarrow: It definitely looks like it's moving North now at about 2 or 3 MPH. :cheesy:
Check that more NW at 1.5 mph.
Last edited by tailgater on Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2573 Postby bbadon » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:34 pm

The buoy on the western edge of vermillion bay is reading 988 mb. Still deepening.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2574 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:36 pm

tailgater wrote::uarrow: It definitely looks like it's moving North now at about 2 or 3 MPH. :cheesy:


Not so sure about that tailgater. Look at Lake Charles radar and zoom in a couple of times due south of Crowley. Looks like it is just hanging right on the coast spinning trying to get a bit better organized as PT said.
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#2575 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:39 pm

If pressure is still deepening must be why radar is starting to light up with the center becoming more defined. Even with about 3.7" of rain at my location since last night some more wouldn't hurt given the rainfall deficits for the year.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2576 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:39 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
tailgater wrote::uarrow: It definitely looks like it's moving North now at about 2 or 3 MPH. :cheesy:


Not so sure about that tailgater. Look at Lake Charles radar and zoom in a couple of times due south of Crowley. Looks like it is just hanging right on the coast spinning trying to get a bit better organized as PT said.

I posted that with a lot of sarcasm.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2577 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:44 pm

The radar presentation is showing the center very nicely now. Not much in way of movement at this time.

Tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2578 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:48 pm

bbadon wrote:The buoy on the western edge of vermillion bay is reading 988 mb. Still deepening.



That is almost unreal with how crappy he looks.
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#2579 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:53 pm

Yeah it does look amazing, but its quite clearly one of those systems that is never going to look textbook even if it became a hurricane...
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Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2580 Postby Wayne » Sat Sep 03, 2011 5:57 pm

Crowley has very dark clouds that are really on the move, very little rain at this time
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