ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[kedekat_2]

Heavy rains and some gusty wind in Vermilion Parish....prob the heaviest I have seen ...will go out and check the rain gauge when it slacks off some.....this looks more like tropcial storm weather than anything I have seen so far. Those tornado reports from Lafayette---no damages that I have seen reported on the local tv websites

[TexasSam]

Rain and VERY windy over here in Baytown...

[ROCK]

looks like Lee had 2 LLC's there at the end....pretty bizzare to look at....he is west of forecast points...just enough to get something over here...

[Nederlander]

Windy with a steady drizzle earlier and now pretty heavy rain in Beaumont. This is exactly what we needed, steady, prolonged showers. Hope you get a piece too H-Town! By the way, if the NAM nails this and every other model chokes, it'll be the call of the year IMO.. Wouldn't bet my life savings on it though.. Stickin with the Euro for now..

[djmikey]

Still raining here in the Beaumont area with gusts higher than earlier to 30-35! Nice all day soaking rain for the yards and trees! I honestly wasn't expecting this much wind and rain being Lee was so far to our east! Nice! Been having power outages all over the SETX because the winds are knocking dead limbs down! Heard three transformers blow from my backyard so far...im sure more to come! Again, THANKS LOUISIANA FOR SHARING SOME....Houston, it looks to be getting much MUCH closer to you also! Don't lose hope yet! Lastnight...I was determined we were not going to get anything, but boy did it change when I woke up this morning!

[WeatherGuesser]

I see quite a bit of rain moving west through Liberty County into Harris County.

[storm4u]

the 18z nam has a max qpf output of 31.90 inches in the Gulf WOW!

[ROCK]

18z NAM shows the same thing as the 12z. Splits it in 2.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

doesnt split...thats LEE...the trof misses it and leaves it behing...high building pushes it back into GOM to our south...lets see if the NAM pulls a fast one on all the models....that would be a first.... LEE is west of forecast points and could be making a loop or just hesitating before the trof takes it out.....wierd run for sure...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...SOGGY LEE LUMBERING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE
29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN OFFSHORE OIL RIG SOUTH OF SABINE PASS RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 50 MPH...81 KM/H AND A GUST TO 60
MPH...90 KM/H AT AN ELEVATION OF 230 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE.

REPORTS FROM OFFSHORE OIL RIGS AND LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY
COASTAL OBSERVING SITES INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

[CYCLONE MIKE]

18z NAM shows the same thing as the 12z. Splits it in 2.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

From the way things are looking with Lee and a lot of his energy that seems to be getting left behind in western LA, the NAM could very well be right. Just have to see if this will move south into the gulf from here.

[ROCK]

according to the NAM Lee would be sitting right on top of Houston in 20+ hrs.....that would be welcome...

BTW- I cant believe I am talking about the NAM...

[WeatherGuesser]

Windy with a steady drizzle earlier and now pretty heavy rain in Beaumont.

Fairly heavy cell approaching Orange headed for Beaumont.

[storm4u]

actually the 72hr total on the nam at hr 84 is 37.50 thats an insane amount of rain good thing its over the Gulf!

[CajunMama]

TWC showed a forecast this morning of Lee's rainbands making it to Texas (actually showed houston). I didn't post about it right away but kept reading here. By the time i went to post i doubted myself and wondered if i had really seen that on the tv but now i know i did!

[JtSmarts]

The pressure has been falling continuously all day but the winds have not gone up in awhile.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

according to the NAM Lee would be sitting right on top of Houston in 20+ hrs.....that would be welcome...

BTW- I cant believe I am talking about the NAM...

Me either, but Lee isn't doing to much around here at the moment.

The front is supposed to be near shreveport draping down sw through texas by this time tomorrow. Looking at current wv loop doesnt seem to be in hurry to get down here or digging as deep.

[South Texas Storms]

18z NAM shows the same thing as the 12z. Splits it in 2.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

doesnt split...thats LEE...the trof misses it and leaves it behing...high building pushes it back into GOM to our south...lets see if the NAM pulls a fast one on all the models....that would be a first.... LEE is west of forecast points and could be making a loop or just hesitating before the trof takes it out.....wierd run for sure...

Well I agree with KFDM Meteorologist when he earlier said that NAM has handled this system very well so far. I wouldn't doubt it. It has showed this 2 runs in a row now. Also, it was the first model to show this developing into a TC...

[PerdidoGirl]

Wind gusts up to 38 mph now in SW Pensacola with a total rainfall of 6 inches total for past 24 hours. A few branches down here and there.

[PTrackerLA]

Not a bad day around Lafayette it has been a few hours since the last heavy squall but looks like another will move in soon.

The 18z NAM solution is a little crazy but it's actually nailing the current precip distribution so it's hard to completely discount it. Looks to be heading NNW back towards the coast at the end .

Edit: Looking at the latest visible on GHCC site, looks like the LLC has just made landfall in SE Vermilion parish.