ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[supercane]

Appears closer to WNW (292.5 degrees) than NW (315 degrees).

And BigA is correct, I should have used 270 for due W (don't know what I was thinking to get 275). The calculation above should be:
tan-1 (4/9)=23.96 degrees (-1 should be superscripted, but cannot enter this)
270+24=294 degrees

which agrees well with the more correct calculation using a spherical earth instead of just plane geometry.

[Hurricaneman]

just got back... why is everyone so quiet.. ?

Welcome back. We were protecting your honor while you were gone.
Quiet due to recurve and all the attention from the GOM'ers and Texans is on Lee.

This thread may be hopping by monday afternoon after either Lee is done with or Katia becomes a possible eastern seaboard threat which I'm not ruling out by any means, because the models are leaning that way

[fci]

just got back... why is everyone so quiet.. ?

Welcome back. We were protecting your honor while you were gone.
Quiet due to recurve and all the attention from the GOM'ers and Texans is on Lee.

This thread may be hopping by monday afternoon after either Lee is done with or Katia becomes a possible eastern seaboard threat which I'm not ruling out by any means, because the models are leaning that way

Oh, OK; that makes sense, if Katia does prove to be a threat.
Anyway, I've missed the drought talk that has been gone for a few days having migrated over to the Lee threads.

[floridasun78]

i have question their way to tell if moving nw or wnw because eye sometime play games make us think moving wnw but still nw

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Appears closer to WNW (292.5 degrees) than NW (315 degrees).

And BigA is correct, I should have used 270 for due W (don't know what I was thinking to get 275). The calculation above should be:
tan-1 (4/9)=23.96 degrees (-1 should be superscripted, but cannot enter this)
270+24=294 degrees

which agrees well with the more correct calculation using a spherical earth instead of just plane geometry.

this site is really good and takes into account curved earth of course. . what i have been using for years.

distance and heading...
http://transition.fcc.gov/mb/audio/bickel/distance.html

and converter.
http://transition.fcc.gov/mb/audio/bick ... cimal.html

[Aric Dunn]

GFS ens. are ummm intersting esp. frame 5 (very very close to NW bahamas) at 144

GFS ENS don't really look much like the operational run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/f156.html

little easier to see.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

so the westward shifts start again.

[Aric Dunn]

whats interesting is the apparent easterly surge coming up on katia... ridging seems to be building north of her as that trough weakens.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[cpdaman]

GFS ens. are ummm intersting esp. frame 5 (very very close to NW bahamas) at 144

GFS ENS don't really look much like the operational run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/f156.html

little easier to see.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

so the westward shifts start again.

perhaps lol but the rings everywhere isn't the same as the standard images..in fact it was odd (for me) ...i just assume people would zoom my link but yes this seems like no one would blink an eye if the models shift back east at 0z lol

[cpdaman]

whats interesting is the apparent easterly surge coming up on katia... ridging seems to be building north of her as that trough weakens.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

intersting point aric.

i mean the euro and gfs really aren't gonna be wrong inside 36 hours on direction of a cane thou are they

bc what your implying to watch for would lead to more westerly 285-ish heading right

[Aric Dunn]

19.6N seems like a pretty good estimate given the latest microwave image.

[jinftl]

Until someone is in the 5-day cone, i wouldn't be too worried....lots of storms look like they are pointing towards the u.s. coast but what we don't see are model runs yet going out far enough in time to show an actual landfall taking place (with the possible exception of Nova Scotia). A track as far west as Irene before turning north and northeast still seems unlikely....of course, we need to watch the trend.

As we learned here in south florida with irene, sometimes the best place to be 96 or 120 hours out is the heart of the cone....

[cpdaman]

aric when do the EURO ens. come out?

wondering what the spread may be

[Rainband]

Denis phillips just posted some models on his facebook. Looks like Irene number 2 wtf....

[Aric Dunn]

whats interesting is the apparent easterly surge coming up on katia... ridging seems to be building north of her as that trough weakens.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

intersting point aric.

i mean the euro and gfs really aren't gonna be wrong inside 36 hours on direction of a cane thou are they

bc what your implying to watch for would lead to more westerly 285-ish heading right

in general they are pretty good inside 24 to 36 hrs. but they are all really having a hard time with this trough. they have been bouncing around quite a bit the last few days. and the hwrf went from a nw motion to a wnw motion for the 12z.. so did the nam and couple other.. a gulfstream flight would be nice

[Rainband]

https://www.facebook.com/denisphillipswfts

[cpdaman]

yes good points

yes and a euro ens. map to see if the OP was a western outlier or more a middle of the pack solution

edit it looks as thou euro ens...are out a lil after 430

[jinftl]

Watch the trend....so far this looks to track east of irene....New England may be at the greatest risk of the u.s. east coast....but extraploating a due north track from these models may not be correct...all about the trend this far out

[cpdaman]

yup i heard that w/ a west based NAO that heights over new fundland area will be lower and thus a more NE path as westerly's have more influence over katia then irene at 40 N latitudes is likely

i mean no one is out of woods and this seems alot more up the air then irene

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[jinftl]

Katia is as far north now as irene was when she was just north of hispanola...the level of concern over Katia should be much less right now than it was for Irene...and if there was no Irene, this wouldn't be getting nearly as much attention. Once an area has been impacted by a storm, it is natural to think every storm is going to follow the same track! Until the U.S. is in the 5-day cone, the concern level should be 'monitor'.

yup i heard that w/ a west based NAO that heights over new fundland area will be lower and thus a more NE path as westerly's have more influence over katia then irene at 40 N latitudes is likely

i mean no one is out of woods and this seems alot more up the air then irene