ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[stormy70]

Rain off and on south of Fairhope near Mobile Bay. Matter of fact the rain has come back. Tornado warnings were in effect for South Mobile near Dauphin Island till 1:15pm.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Still like the 12z EURO though, takes it out late Sunday

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I like the 12Z EURO though, takes it out NE Sunday Aftn late

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Afraid that in the NAM's scenario it would being to drift back northwards. It's actually quite similar to what the Euro showed a few days ago.

Yep, mentioned that in the models thread when I saw the run. Sure seems to be a lot more energy over in your area and western LA than was forecast. Something to surely watch today and tomorrow.

[underthwx]

Are the areas in Louisiana that are in D4 drought getting rain? I hope so!

Lee appears to be behaving pretty much as forecast. It was expected to be stalled near the mid LA coast today. As that trof/front dig southward on Sunday, Lee will be picked up and accelerated off to the northeast. No significant wind inland, just offshore. Lots of rain, though. Wish we could see some rain...

Yesterday it was sunny, hot, and dry. Today it's sunny, hot, dry, and *breezy*. Harris Co. is under a fire weather watch. I never thought a tropical cyclone could induce a fire weather watch.

I've seen it get hotter (like last week with Irene and with past systems) but this one is all mixed up I think with that cold front coming down. A large part of Texas is under a Fire Weather Watch and here in Central and South Central, we're under a Red Flag Warning. The cold front isn't here yet so I guess the Red Flag Warning is because of Lee.

pressure gradient tightening across Texas between Lee and high pressure to the north...have some wind advisorys in some areas which in turn are elevating fire dangers...one of Lee's many adverse influences regretablly....



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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Annie Oakley]

Thanks for putting that civilian time in there ha ha!

[tdess02]

Belle Chasse LA south of New Orleans, 7.15" of rain so far and still getting heavy bands.

[brunota2003]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 03 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION FOR 04/00Z CANCELED AT
03/1230Z. WC-130 MISSION FOR 04/00Z AND
04/06Z CANCELED AT 03/1530Z.

[gone2beach]

Another 1.55" in the gauge, storm total so far, 6.48".

[midnight8]

From looking at the long range loop out of Lake Charles it kinda look like it may have come onshore. To me it appear that way. Any truth to it?

[underthwx]

From looking at the long range loop out of Lake Charles it kinda look like it may have come onshore. To me it appear that way. Any truth to it?

Lee stationary atm..





Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[djmikey]

Continuous light/moderate rain here in SETX (Beaumont area) with breezy conditions! Several gusts of close to 30 here also! Nice! I'll take it! Thanks Louisiana for sharing a little!

[Nederlander]

Have a hard time buying the NAM at this point.. Can't really fathom the trough only picking up half of Lee. The whole system should follow the trough to the NE. It'll be interesting to see how far south it dips though. Euro seems to be the most plausible scenario, but hey what do I know? I have learned that models get tricky and leave a lot of 'what-if' scenarios when dealing with a stalling system..

[Dave]

I mised that one big time didn't i Brunota! Ok then all missions into Lee are done.

WC-130 MISSION FOR 04/00Z AND
04/06Z CANCELED AT 03/1530Z.

Thanks for posting it.

[Dave]

WC-130 MISSION FOR 04/00Z AND 04/06Z CANCELED AT 03/1530Z.

No further missions are scheduled at this time.

[Janie2006]

My rainfall total thus far is about 3.5 inches, currently tornado warnings in effect for George and Greene counties in Mississippi and Mobile county in Alabama.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Have a hard time buying the NAM at this point.. Can't really fathom the trough only picking up half of Lee. The whole system should follow the trough to the NE. It'll be interesting to see how far south it dips though. Euro seems to be the most plausible scenario, but hey what do I know? I have learned that models get tricky and leave a lot of 'what-if' scenarios when dealing with a stalling system..

I agree

[tropicwatch]

The weather underground has what they call the wundermap. It is really cool with observations and radar. Here is a link for south Louisiana, hope it works.

wundermap

Tropicwatch

[nashrobertsx]

That sucker is starting to get wrapped around.. we might have an intensifying system here. Thoughts?

[underthwx]

968 mb at hour 168 on 12z euro; yeah that's a little robust.

... and heading toward the lower Texas coast. Very similar to the Canadian, but it stalls the storm south of the LA coast rather than just inland. Both the Canadian and Euro have it missing the trof to the north, being blocked, then moving SW. GFS is the only model to forecast it to be picked up by the trof and move off to the NE. It's definitely the outlier.

your post from Wed.Aug.31...is this scenario discounted atm?.... ....NHC forecasts are what I follow at all times..but im curious to know if you would share your thoughts... could Lee miss the trough?...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.