ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031459
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 25 20110903
145000 2852N 09142W 8428 01448 //// +185 //// 209028 028 026 000 05
145030 2853N 09143W 8433 01443 //// +185 //// 208027 027 025 000 01
145100 2855N 09144W 8428 01446 //// +188 //// 212025 026 026 000 05
145130 2856N 09146W 8433 01439 //// +188 //// 212022 024 026 000 01
145200 2857N 09148W 8428 01444 //// +189 //// 209020 021 026 000 01
145230 2857N 09149W 8432 01437 //// +190 //// 210019 020 024 001 01
145300 2858N 09151W 8429 01440 //// +192 //// 206019 020 024 002 05
145330 2859N 09152W 8432 01434 //// +194 //// 206019 019 023 000 01
145400 2900N 09154W 8430 01435 //// +198 //// 209018 019 024 000 01
145430 2901N 09155W 8428 01437 //// +200 //// 208017 018 024 000 01
145500 2902N 09157W 8430 01433 //// +200 //// 203017 017 024 000 01
145530 2903N 09159W 8429 01433 //// +200 //// 201017 017 022 000 05
145600 2904N 09200W 8429 01432 //// +200 //// 194016 017 021 000 01
145630 2905N 09202W 8430 01430 //// +200 //// 191013 015 022 000 05
145700 2906N 09204W 8426 01434 //// +201 //// 195011 012 020 000 05
145730 2906N 09205W 8429 01430 //// +205 //// 192011 012 020 000 05
145800 2907N 09207W 8429 01430 //// +200 //// 188009 010 018 000 01
145830 2907N 09209W 8430 01428 //// +195 //// 182006 007 013 000 01
145900 2907N 09211W 8429 01430 //// +190 //// 177005 005 011 000 05
145930 2908N 09213W 8430 01428 //// +196 //// 123003 004 008 000 01

Near the center.

[windnrain]

This is the strangest tropical system I've ever gone through. The closer the center of Lee gets, the less severe it gets. Kind of trippy.

[jinftl]

That can happen with a tropical storm that is highly right-heavy...most of the worst weather is well east of the estimated center. Compare this to a symmetrical, organized major hurricane where the closer the eye gets to the coast, those nearest the center see conditions rapidly deteriorate.

This is the strangest tropical system I've ever gone through. The closer the center of Lee gets, the less severe it gets. Kind of trippy.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Looks more subtropical to me..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

lol yep

[caneman]

Dean do you have a link for the Euro? Also, give the Euro not sure that the NAM is that unreasonable as it looks like it misses the trough.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031509
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 26 20110903
150000 2908N 09215W 8429 01428 //// +195 //// 091006 007 008 000 05
150030 2908N 09217W 8429 01430 //// +191 //// 089008 009 010 000 01
150100 2908N 09219W 8429 01428 //// +184 //// 067010 011 013 002 05
150130 2907N 09220W 8424 01440 //// +176 //// 049011 016 /// /// 05
150200 2906N 09220W 8425 01433 //// +189 //// 062005 008 /// /// 05
150230 2906N 09219W 8435 01421 //// +195 //// 126004 005 007 000 05
150300 2907N 09217W 8429 01427 //// +195 //// 144003 004 /// /// 05
150330 2906N 09215W 8428 01429 //// +194 //// 179003 004 005 000 05
150400 2906N 09213W 8429 01427 //// +194 //// 203005 006 008 000 01
150430 2906N 09211W 8430 01427 //// +198 //// 217007 009 013 000 01
150500 2905N 09209W 8435 01427 //// +201 //// 211012 012 014 000 05
150530 2904N 09208W 8427 01433 //// +200 //// 210011 011 018 000 01
150600 2903N 09207W 8432 01426 //// +200 //// 204012 013 020 000 01
150630 2902N 09205W 8425 01434 //// +196 //// 209013 013 021 000 01
150700 2901N 09204W 8430 01430 //// +195 //// 212015 017 023 001 01
150730 2900N 09203W 8431 01431 //// +194 //// 213018 019 026 000 05
150800 2859N 09201W 8427 01443 //// +194 //// 213020 021 /// /// 05
150830 2900N 09200W 8433 01439 //// +189 //// 202017 019 /// /// 05
150900 2900N 09200W 8433 01439 //// +197 //// 193016 016 024 000 05
150930 2902N 09203W 8428 01435 //// +195 //// 195012 014 023 000 05

Center around 29°07'N 92°15'W

[jinftl]

Worst weather now is heading into MS and AL coasts (even NW FL)...

[wxman57]

Lee is definitely moving northward and inland. As the cold front approaches the Gulf coast Sunday/Monday southwest winds aloft will pick up Lee and accelerate it to the northeast. It's already not looking very tropical. It'll be even less tropical by tomorrow and extratropical by Monday as it merges with the front. I am seeing no evidence of 50kt winds in the obs offshore. Those FL winds are not transferring down to the surface well. More like 40-45 kts offshore and sub-TS inland. Similar to Irene - not much wind over land.

[rockyman]

The visible loop right now is very interesting...the "double barrel" centers mentioned in the NHC discussion are very apparent...the southern center is moving east-southeast, while the northern center moves west-northwest...the entire system, though, is drifting northward toward the coast

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[hipshot]

I am looking at the radar. Now, I am dumber than a box of rocks, but I swear the rainbands are moving west. I swear I am seeing a whole bunch of something heading our way. Now, I am sure I am wrong.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

From that radar shot, it sure looks like it is crawling along the coast from east to west, at least for now.

[thetraveler]

The storm moved just a tad south and east between the two advisories.
29.4N/92.0W
29.3N/91.8W

[HenkL]

Looks like the center at 850 hPa level moved to the WNW (295°) with 25 miles (20 SM) in 3 hours.

[cycloneye]

Drifting southward in this saved loop image.
Impressive to see the two circulations battle for domination.

[SETXPTNeches]

Well - all I know is that we are getting a little (and I mean little) rain, here in SETX. Windy and light rain, is much better than HOT and HOTTER!!!

As of this morning we have a hurricane statement issued for Jefferson County until tomorrow morning - have no idea what that is all about. The statement just reminds us to be prepared for hurricane conditions in our area and if we have not comprised a plan to do so.

[jinftl]

I think it's more that the NHC can't locate a clear center...this is looking more like a winter storm in satellite signature according to The Weather Channel

From NHC Discussion:
THERE ARE TWO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS APPARENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORWARD MOTION OF 005/05 KT
IS BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION BETWEEN THOSE TWO VORTICES...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE RECON 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER.

The storm moved just a tad south and east between the two advisories.
29.4N/92.0W
29.3N/91.8W

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031520
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 27 20110903
151000 2902N 09205W 8429 01431 //// +193 //// 196011 011 022 000 01
151030 2902N 09207W 8430 01428 //// +189 //// 201011 012 021 000 01
151100 2903N 09209W 8428 01430 //// +186 //// 196010 011 019 000 05
151130 2903N 09211W 8424 01434 //// +191 //// 185008 010 015 000 01
151200 2904N 09212W 8429 01428 //// +195 //// 165005 005 012 000 05
151230 2904N 09214W 8432 01425 //// +194 //// 122004 005 008 000 01
151300 2905N 09216W 8432 01425 //// +192 //// 092006 006 006 000 05
151330 2905N 09218W 8433 01425 //// +195 //// 057006 006 004 000 05
151400 2907N 09219W 8426 01427 //// +192 //// 061007 008 018 000 05
151430 2908N 09219W 8413 01445 //// +178 //// 067013 017 036 004 01
151500 2910N 09219W 8430 01429 //// +172 //// 052007 010 035 002 01
151530 2911N 09220W 8426 01435 //// +187 //// 036008 011 032 000 05
151600 2913N 09220W 8431 01428 //// +194 //// 036006 006 030 001 01
151630 2915N 09220W 8430 01432 //// +190 //// 032009 010 031 000 01
151700 2916N 09220W 8429 01430 //// +192 //// 026008 009 030 000 01
151730 2918N 09220W 8428 01432 //// +193 //// 033010 011 031 000 05
151800 2919N 09220W 8428 01432 //// +194 //// 029012 012 031 000 05
151830 2921N 09220W 8429 01430 //// +194 //// 030013 013 032 000 01
151900 2923N 09220W 8429 01430 //// +195 //// 036013 013 033 000 01
151930 2924N 09220W 8430 01428 //// +198 //// 034015 017 031 000 01

[EasyTiger]

The visible loop right now is very interesting...the "double barrel" centers mentioned in the NHC discussion are very apparent...the southern center is moving east-southeast, while the northern center moves west-northwest...the entire system, though, is drifting northward toward the coast

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Maybe the NAM was on to something.

[SETXPTNeches]

lol yep

Greg - I got that hurricane statement on my Weather Bug...What the heck?

[sphelps8681]

The visible loop right now is very interesting...the "double barrel" centers mentioned in the NHC discussion are very apparent...the southern center is moving east-southeast, while the northern center moves west-northwest...the entire system, though, is drifting northward toward the coast

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

What was the NAM hinting at?

Maybe the NAM was on to something.