ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 35

Winds picking up to the NE

[Nikki]

Are we at our 28 year average yet?!?!?!?!

Jerry came in 1989. There was a 9 year gap with October hurricanes between 1886 and 1895. Than a 43 year gap between 1895 to 1938. Following that, 11 year gap between 1938 and 1949. Between October 1949 and October 1989, you got a 40 year gap.

In regards to Lee, the models are not looking good for Texas.

I know I tried I prayed and prayed for this! Maybe soon we will get lucky and get some beneficial rain!

[Janie2006]

Based on WSR-88D returns I'm estimating a little over 1.5" of rain at my location thus far. Seems to be a nice litle break ahead, but plenty more getting ready to move ashore soon.

[Raininfyr]

you guys in baton rouge look to be riding the line at this point. there could be a very tight precip gradient in your area that would be virtually impossible to nail down beforehand. kinda of a nowcasting situation at this point. one well placed convective burst could easily yield several inches of rain yet such events are impossible to forecast well in advance. i guess an analog would be northern snowstorm where you go from a couple of inches to a foot in a 40 mile span. tough to get a handle on it until the flakes are flying.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks psyclone. It is kicking up a little bit right now, but you never know, this may be all we get. Yeah, that would be good!

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030433
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 36 20110903
042400 2930N 09249W 8433 01516 //// +178 //// 068036 037 034 001 05
042430 2930N 09247W 8430 01518 //// +175 //// 065036 037 034 000 05
042500 2929N 09246W 8430 01519 //// +173 //// 066036 037 035 000 01
042530 2928N 09244W 8446 01503 //// +175 //// 071035 035 034 000 01
042600 2927N 09243W 8429 01520 //// +177 //// 070035 036 034 001 05
042630 2925N 09243W 8426 01519 //// +175 //// 068038 039 /// /// 05
042700 2925N 09245W 8432 01514 //// +176 //// 070039 039 /// /// 05
042730 2926N 09247W 8427 01520 //// +176 //// 073039 039 035 001 01
042800 2927N 09248W 8432 01515 //// +175 //// 072039 039 033 001 05
042830 2928N 09249W 8429 01518 //// +173 //// 068040 041 034 000 01
042900 2929N 09251W 8432 01515 //// +175 //// 067040 040 033 001 01
042930 2930N 09252W 8431 01514 //// +178 //// 069039 039 /// /// 05
043000 2931N 09251W 8433 01516 //// +179 //// 068037 038 031 000 05
043030 2931N 09249W 8429 01518 //// +179 //// 066036 036 032 001 01
043100 2930N 09248W 8433 01513 //// +179 //// 065034 035 033 001 01
043130 2930N 09247W 8429 01516 //// +177 //// 064033 034 034 000 01
043200 2929N 09245W 8432 01514 //// +179 //// 064033 033 034 001 01
043230 2928N 09244W 8430 01514 //// +177 //// 063032 032 033 000 05
043300 2927N 09243W 8429 01515 //// +175 //// 066034 035 034 001 01
043330 2926N 09242W 8432 01514 //// +179 //// 066036 036 036 000 01
$$
;

[T-man]

The rain is picking up again here after a lull in the action tonight. Who knows, may end the day with two and a half inches, maybe more. The bayou has come up some more, and will be close to leaving its banks in some places soon.

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 36

Looks like another pass of center upcoming

[bamajammer4eva]

Tornado watch maybe coming soon

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MS/AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 030432Z - 030630Z

NORTH-NORTHEAST PERIPHERAL BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE MAY POSE AN
ISOLATED/MAINLY BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN LA COASTAL
AREAS /ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST LA/ AND PERHAPS EXTREME SOUTHERN MS/AL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. WHILE ANY THREAT MAY
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED...A TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

AS PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD DRIFT TOWARD THE LA COAST AS IT
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
PERIPHERAL WIND FIELD HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS PER THE 01Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM SLIDELL LA
AND TRENDS OF LIX/MOB WSR-88D VWP DATA...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES A
BIT CLOSER/MODESTLY INTENSIFIES.

IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WEAK BUOYANCY/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INLAND
AMID CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
CERTAINTY/MAGNITUDE OF A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH
LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST LATE THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF THE HOUMA VICINITY. NONETHELESS...ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED 01Z LIX RAOB AND LATEST LIX/MOB WSR-88D VWP DATA
IS INDICATIVE OF 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 150-225 M2/S2...GIVEN
THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN VICINITY
OF A NEAR-SHORE CONFLUENCE AXIS. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /MIDDLE
70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...THE DEGREE OF SHEAR/SRH WILL PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030443
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 37 20110903
043400 2925N 09241W 8430 01514 //// +180 //// 067034 035 036 000 05
043430 2924N 09240W 8432 01511 //// +180 //// 069036 036 036 000 01
043500 2923N 09238W 8433 01510 //// +179 //// 068035 036 036 000 01
043530 2922N 09237W 8426 01515 //// +172 //// 067033 033 037 001 01
043600 2921N 09236W 8431 01509 //// +176 //// 067035 036 037 000 01
043630 2920N 09235W 8429 01511 //// +176 //// 068037 038 035 001 01
043700 2919N 09234W 8430 01509 //// +179 //// 069036 037 036 000 05
043730 2918N 09233W 8428 01510 //// +175 //// 070036 037 035 001 01
043800 2917N 09231W 8433 01503 //// +177 //// 071037 039 037 001 01
043830 2916N 09230W 8433 01502 //// +171 //// 069039 040 036 001 01
043900 2915N 09229W 8429 01505 //// +170 //// 066040 041 036 000 05
043930 2914N 09228W 8433 01503 //// +170 //// 066040 041 038 001 01
044000 2913N 09227W 8426 01507 //// +165 //// 067040 041 037 000 01
044030 2912N 09226W 8433 01499 //// +169 //// 066040 040 038 001 01
044100 2911N 09225W 8432 01499 //// +168 //// 065040 040 038 001 01
044130 2910N 09223W 8431 01500 //// +169 //// 065041 042 038 001 01
044200 2909N 09222W 8430 01500 //// +169 //// 063044 045 038 000 05
044230 2908N 09221W 8431 01497 //// +174 //// 061042 043 038 001 01
044300 2907N 09220W 8429 01498 //// +175 //// 058037 039 038 001 05
044330 2905N 09220W 8433 01494 //// +175 //// 059033 033 039 000 01
$$
;

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 37

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The latest GFS shows us still receiving 5"-10" of rain. Lee looks to sit directly over Lafayette for some bit of time, we'll see. About to have the heaviest squalls yet move in from the east, a solid mass of yellow and orange radar returns.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Looks like you could be in it for awhile there PT. Lets us know how things go. Probably could get an easy 3-5 inches from that mass.

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030453
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 38 20110903
044400 2904N 09219W 8428 01499 //// +167 //// 060031 033 038 006 01
044430 2902N 09218W 8430 01494 //// +166 //// 055030 030 042 004 01
044500 2901N 09217W 8430 01494 //// +159 //// 049029 030 041 004 01
044530 2900N 09216W 8433 01491 //// +170 //// 046034 039 041 004 01
044600 2858N 09215W 8433 01489 //// +173 //// 050036 037 040 003 01
044630 2857N 09215W 8428 01492 //// +170 //// 052035 037 040 001 01
044700 2855N 09214W 8430 01487 //// +170 //// 050033 034 040 001 01
044730 2854N 09213W 8429 01488 //// +173 //// 051029 032 040 000 01
044800 2852N 09212W 8430 01483 //// +172 //// 045026 028 039 001 01
044830 2851N 09211W 8430 01485 //// +178 //// 042022 023 039 001 05
044900 2850N 09210W 8432 01482 //// +182 //// 036022 022 038 001 05
044930 2848N 09210W 8435 01480 //// +178 //// 042019 021 038 001 01
045000 2847N 09209W 8428 01485 //// +178 //// 041015 016 038 002 01
045030 2845N 09208W 8431 01480 //// +179 //// 045014 014 037 001 05
045100 2844N 09207W 8430 01480 //// +180 //// 046010 011 036 001 05
045130 2843N 09206W 8431 01481 //// +184 //// 047008 008 035 001 01
045200 2841N 09205W 8429 01481 //// +185 //// 050007 009 034 000 05
045230 2840N 09204W 8433 01476 //// +187 //// 046006 006 031 000 05
045300 2839N 09203W 8429 01483 //// +189 //// 033006 006 028 001 05
045330 2838N 09201W 8432 01478 //// +197 //// 031003 005 020 000 05
$$
;

[Annie Oakley]

RECCO 12

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 04:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 13
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 12

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 4:34Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 29.4N 92.7W
Location: 64 miles (103 km) to the SSE (152°) from Lake Charles, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,520 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 70° at 34 knots (From the ENE at ~ 39.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 18°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,445 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 35 knots (~ 40.3mph)

[phwxenthusiast]

looking at the 00z nogaps, Lee moves north faster compared to 12z... by hr 60 it's already in Mississippi, hr 72 on the 12z run, Lee is still in the Gulf just south of NoLa...

it is also faster than the 00z GFS...

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 38

[Annie Oakley]

Want ya'll to know that if it gets dire over there, Texas is ready and able to absorb another quarter million Louisiana folks like we did after Katrina..........just hope they can stand the heat.

Standing by

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030503
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 39 20110903
045400 2837N 09200W 8431 01480 //// +197 //// 040003 004 018 000 01
045430 2836N 09158W 8432 01478 //// +201 //// 007002 004 011 000 01
045500 2836N 09157W 8430 01481 //// +201 //// 357003 003 010 001 01
045530 2835N 09155W 8429 01482 //// +201 //// 031004 004 010 000 01
045600 2834N 09154W 8434 01476 //// +197 //// 065005 006 008 000 05
045630 2833N 09153W 8434 01476 //// +191 //// 111004 005 004 001 05
045700 2831N 09152W 8431 01478 //// +189 //// 158005 006 010 001 01
045730 2830N 09151W 8429 01481 //// +184 //// 162006 007 010 000 01
045800 2829N 09150W 8433 01478 //// +182 //// 161007 008 010 000 01
045830 2827N 09149W 8429 01482 //// +180 //// 166008 009 005 002 05
045900 2826N 09148W 8433 01477 //// +182 //// 176006 007 011 000 01
045930 2825N 09148W 8429 01481 //// +182 //// 192008 009 008 000 01
050000 2824N 09147W 8432 01477 //// +176 //// 200010 011 009 000 01
050030 2822N 09146W 8426 01482 //// +179 //// 201011 012 010 000 01
050100 2821N 09145W 8431 01476 //// +180 //// 195011 012 /// /// 05
050130 2820N 09147W 8429 01478 //// +181 //// 185009 011 005 002 05
050200 2819N 09148W 8433 01477 //// +182 //// 188007 007 011 000 05
050230 2819N 09150W 8433 01477 //// +181 //// 181008 008 007 000 05
050300 2819N 09151W 8430 01478 //// +181 //// 162007 007 001 001 05
050330 2820N 09153W 8436 01472 //// +179 //// 174007 008 007 003 05
$$
;

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030513
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 40 20110903
050400 2821N 09154W 8428 01478 //// +176 //// 154007 010 016 002 01
050430 2823N 09155W 8440 01469 //// +171 //// 162009 009 018 001 01
050500 2824N 09155W 8428 01482 //// +180 //// 159006 008 009 001 01
050530 2825N 09156W 8429 01480 //// +183 //// 127006 006 006 000 01
050600 2827N 09157W 8430 01478 //// +185 //// 096006 007 007 000 01
050630 2828N 09158W 8432 01476 //// +189 //// 073009 010 005 001 01
050700 2830N 09159W 8432 01475 //// +195 //// 054008 010 006 000 01
050730 2831N 09200W 8430 01477 //// +195 //// 050006 006 008 000 01
050800 2832N 09200W 8433 01474 //// +200 //// 047006 006 007 001 01
050830 2834N 09201W 8429 01478 //// +204 //// 061005 005 008 000 01
050900 2835N 09202W 8429 01480 //// +198 //// 080005 005 010 002 01
050930 2837N 09203W 8429 01480 //// +198 //// 101006 007 014 001 01
051000 2838N 09204W 8433 01474 //// +195 //// 089006 007 021 001 01
051030 2839N 09205W 8434 01472 //// +185 //// 084006 006 022 000 01
051100 2841N 09205W 8433 01471 //// +184 //// 075005 006 030 001 01
051130 2842N 09206W 8436 01466 //// +184 //// 052009 012 033 002 05
051200 2843N 09207W 8425 01480 //// +179 //// 054013 016 034 001 01
051230 2845N 09208W 8433 01470 //// +179 //// 061013 015 035 001 01
051300 2846N 09209W 8433 01472 //// +180 //// 060011 012 036 001 05
051330 2847N 09210W 8431 01475 //// +180 //// 056012 013 038 002 05
$$

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030523
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 41 20110903
051400 2849N 09211W 8429 01480 //// +186 //// 042015 016 /// /// 05
051430 2848N 09213W 8433 01474 //// +178 //// 038016 017 /// /// 05
051500 2846N 09213W 8435 01477 //// +181 //// 034014 016 039 001 05
051530 2845N 09212W 8424 01483 //// +177 //// 038012 013 037 003 01
051600 2844N 09211W 8434 01471 //// +182 //// 042012 013 038 003 05
051630 2842N 09210W 8428 01478 //// +178 //// 042012 013 033 002 05
051700 2841N 09209W 8428 01478 //// +182 //// 019008 011 030 000 05
051730 2841N 09207W 8421 01483 //// +186 //// 005004 005 029 002 05
051800 2840N 09205W 8420 01485 //// +186 //// 140002 004 027 001 01
051830 2840N 09204W 8429 01475 //// +188 //// 121004 005 017 000 01
051900 2840N 09202W 8432 01474 //// +192 //// 140007 008 012 001 05
051930 2840N 09200W 8429 01474 //// +204 //// 159006 007 011 001 01
052000 2840N 09200W 8429 01474 //// +198 //// 149008 009 011 000 05
052030 2840N 09157W 8418 01486 //// +200 //// 138010 011 /// /// 05
052100 2842N 09157W 8438 01464 //// +200 //// 131012 013 010 001 05
052130 2844N 09157W 8429 01472 //// +200 //// 135014 014 010 001 05
052200 2844N 09157W 8429 01472 //// +200 //// 134014 014 010 001 01
052230 2847N 09158W 8429 01469 //// +193 //// 134016 017 014 000 01
052300 2849N 09158W 8434 01464 //// +186 //// 133015 016 012 001 01
052330 2851N 09159W 8434 01458 //// +185 //// 127016 017 014 000 01
$$
;

[LaBreeze]

The latest GFS shows us still receiving 5"-10" of rain. Lee looks to sit directly over Lafayette for some bit of time, we'll see. About to have the heaviest squalls yet move in from the east, a solid mass of yellow and orange radar returns.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I'm watching the same thing PTrackerLA. Rains are definitely increasing and quite gusty down here in Vermilion Parish.