ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 28

[bamajammer4eva]

There is a lot of misinformation taking place the last few pages, Lee is not weakening at all...the CDO is condensing and becoming more vertically stacked.

Outflow dissipating does not = weakening

Agree. I dont think the NHC would be so bullish as to forecast a 65 mph TS if it was falling apart and weakening nor would Pressure be the lowest it been yet at 1001mb. Organizing tropical systems still pulse up and down as they are pulling themselves together.

[Viper54r]

There is a lot of misinformation taking place the last few pages, Lee is not weakening at all...the CDO is condensing and becoming more vertically stacked.

Outflow dissipating does not = weakening

Where's the misinformation? This is a discussion board and I see people discussing Lee.

I see a lot of "Lee is weakening!!!"

[Annie Oakley]

RECCO OBSERVATION 9

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 03:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 13
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 09

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 3:07Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 27.2N 93.2W
Location: 207 miles (333 km) to the SSE (164°) from Beaumont, TX, USA.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,520 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 360° at 15 knots (From the N at ~ 17.2 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,448 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 20 knots (~ 23.0mph)

[SoupBone]

There is a lot of misinformation taking place the last few pages, Lee is not weakening at all...the CDO is condensing and becoming more vertically stacked.

Outflow dissipating does not = weakening

Where's the misinformation? This is a discussion board and I see people discussing Lee.

I see a lot of "Lee is weakening!!!"

Gotcha. I'm trying to make sense of the the dry air he's eating all the while strengthening in his NE quad. It's pretty interesting.

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030323
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 29 20110903
031400 2725N 09255W 8432 01511 //// +175 //// 010014 015 024 001 01
031430 2726N 09254W 8431 01509 //// +179 //// 001014 014 025 001 01
031500 2727N 09252W 8429 01511 //// +181 //// 000013 014 025 000 05
031530 2728N 09251W 8429 01510 //// +181 //// 354012 012 025 000 01
031600 2729N 09250W 8432 01506 //// +180 //// 356012 012 026 000 01
031630 2730N 09248W 8430 01508 //// +180 //// 356012 012 026 001 01
031700 2731N 09247W 8432 01506 //// +176 //// 005013 014 025 000 01
031730 2732N 09245W 8430 01506 //// +177 //// 001013 013 025 001 01
031800 2733N 09244W 8429 01508 //// +179 //// 008011 012 025 001 01
031830 2734N 09243W 8431 01505 //// +176 //// 009009 009 024 001 01
031900 2735N 09241W 8430 01505 //// +175 //// 006007 008 024 000 01
031930 2736N 09240W 8432 01504 //// +176 //// 357008 009 023 001 05
032000 2737N 09238W 8430 01505 //// +179 //// 003008 008 023 001 05
032030 2737N 09236W 8432 01504 //// +180 //// 356008 009 022 000 01
032100 2738N 09235W 8429 01504 //// +180 //// 001009 009 020 001 01
032130 2738N 09233W 8433 01501 //// +183 //// 009008 008 021 001 05
032200 2738N 09231W 8430 01503 //// +185 //// 005008 008 021 000 01
032230 2738N 09229W 8431 01503 //// +182 //// 008007 008 021 000 01
032300 2739N 09227W 8430 01504 //// +178 //// 355007 009 018 001 01
032330 2739N 09225W 8430 01504 //// +179 //// 350007 008 020 000 01
$$
;

[BigB0882]

I apologize but you have to admit, that thing looked like it was going poof very quickly. It isn't as if this is a category 2 hurricane, it could die very very quickly and recent history has shown us that even major hurricanes suffer upon approach to land when in the Gulf. This is a discussion board so people will say things and ask questions, feel free to correct them if you feel they are wrong.

[Annie Oakley]

look at drudge report headline...........

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 29

taking a little eastern jaunt...wonder why? Only looking at pictures and brief glance at data

[CronkPSU]

i am still mad at drudge, all last week he led the parade about how big and bad irene was going to be and caused panic and then was the first to blame the NHC and the "media" for creating all this hype when he was the one driving it

[Countrygirl911]

ok so how many days in a row could people see TS force winds

Here is our forecast here in Baton Rouge:

LAZ046>048-031230-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE
442 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
EAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH INCREASING TO 50 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. EAST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. EAST WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 75 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. NORTH WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.LABOR DAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDY WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
30 PERCENT.

oh wow that is 3 days if it is constant wind speeds like that there will be a good bit of damage.

[Annie Oakley]

Smart Snoop

[CYCLONE MIKE]

look at drudge report headline...........

What do mean Annie?

[Viper54r]

I apologize but you have to admit, that thing looked like it was going poof very quickly. It isn't as if this is a category 2 hurricane, it could die very very quickly and recent history has shown us that even major hurricanes suffer upon approach to land when in the Gulf. This is a discussion board so people will say things and ask questions, feel free to correct them if you feel they are wrong.

I didn't mean to make it look like I was getting on anybody

[SoupBone]

You have to admit that it's interesting to see Lee getting his south side exposed while bursting in the NE quad. This pic is what I keep looking at.

[Sabanic]

I know that if he holds together as projected it's going to be really nasty here for the next few days.

[stormreader]

Lee is slowly strengthening (as forecast). Storms are consolidating now closer to the centerand the pressure has fallen some in the last few hours. No, its not going to be a big wind event, but I wouldn't be so quick to count this fellow out. Landfall is not expected to occur for another 24 hours, and you can see the big convective burst just offshore which will gradually be moving inland tonight and tomorrow. And heavy rains will continue (most likely in SE Louisiana) for at least another 24-48 hours after landfall.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

[PTrackerLA]

Just had our first decent squall in Lafayette, winds prob gusting to 30mph with heavy rain. Looks like more will be working its way into the area as we head into the night. With shear dying down look for him to wrap more overnight IMO. Looks like we'll at least be seeing TS force winds in squalls tomorrow.

[Annie Oakley]

look at drudge report headline...........

What do mean Annie?

I mean....the focus is on Louisiana and the storm, rain potential and Mississippi etc. Making major news. That's all I mean.
That site gets millions of hits and it just means that the focus is on LEE weather-wise as opposed to any other US weather.

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 30

maybe a little shift east in center fix coming

or they were just dodging some rough stuff