ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ixolib]

Ixolib, must have been thinking the same thing at the same time. Looking pretty bad. Will be interesting to see what the NHC says in about 45 min.

...and perhaps even more interesting to see what the morning brings. We have surely seen dry air kill a storm in a very short period of time. This type of scenario has played out many times before with dry air entrainment coming off of Texas and getting sucked right in, killing off most moisture that was previously present... Kinda like putting kitty litter on an oil spill.

[underthwx]

does anyone have an image that can be posted depicting areas.....counties...regions...etc. that display Lee's possible prolonged effects?...thought that might help viewers....current warnings...possible precip..etc.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agreed. Have seen it happen with most of the storms that have made landfall in LA for many, many years.

[PTrackerLA]

Lee really needs another blowup on the western side of the circulation to cut off that dry air inflow. I have my doubts how much rain we actually end up receiving. I just hope we get at least a couple of inches because it's pretty parched. The GFS and Euro insist Lee stays offshore through tomorrow while wrapping up more so this should just be a temporary stage.

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030213
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 22 20110903
020400 2834N 09221W 8429 01509 //// +167 //// 049031 033 037 001 01
020430 2836N 09223W 8430 01513 //// +171 //// 044032 034 037 001 01
020500 2837N 09224W 8427 01515 //// +166 //// 044033 034 035 002 01
020530 2838N 09225W 8432 01510 //// +165 //// 048033 034 036 000 05
020600 2839N 09226W 8429 01513 //// +165 //// 048036 036 035 002 01
020630 2841N 09227W 8433 01510 //// +170 //// 047038 039 036 000 01
020700 2842N 09229W 8429 01515 //// +170 //// 047038 038 036 002 01
020730 2843N 09230W 8432 01511 //// +178 //// 045037 037 038 000 01
020800 2844N 09231W 8430 01515 //// +181 //// 045040 041 037 001 05
020830 2845N 09232W 8428 01519 //// +185 //// 045040 041 037 000 05
020900 2847N 09234W 8433 01513 //// +185 //// 046040 041 036 001 05
020930 2848N 09235W 8431 01516 //// +185 //// 044040 041 035 001 01
021000 2849N 09236W 8426 01522 //// +181 //// 046041 041 037 001 01
021030 2850N 09237W 8433 01516 //// +181 //// 047041 041 037 001 01
021100 2851N 09239W 8429 01520 //// +179 //// 049041 042 037 001 05
021130 2851N 09239W 8429 01520 //// +176 //// 051042 042 038 001 01
021200 2854N 09241W 8432 01520 //// +180 //// 054042 042 038 001 01
021230 2855N 09242W 8429 01524 //// +180 //// 054041 041 037 002 01
021300 2856N 09244W 8432 01521 //// +180 //// 053040 040 034 003 01
021330 2857N 09245W 8430 01524 //// +181 //// 053039 039 035 001 01
$$

[Huckster]

ok so how many days in a row could people see TS force winds

Here is our forecast here in Baton Rouge:

LAZ046>048-031230-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE
442 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
EAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH INCREASING TO 50 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. EAST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. EAST WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 75 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. NORTH WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.LABOR DAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDY WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
30 PERCENT.

I would be absolutely SHOCKED if the Baton Rouge area got winds anywhere near those numbers, especially for such a long duration. At the airport in BR, at 9:00 pm, the wind was from the NE at 16 mph gusting to 23 mph. This has got to be one of the most sensational, exaggerated sounding forecasts I've seen. Can anyone else see any real justification for these high numbers?

[LaBreeze]

Lee really needs another blowup on the western side of the circulation to cut off that dry air inflow. I have my doubts how much rain we actually end up receiving. I just hope we get at least a couple of inches because it's pretty parched. The GFS and Euro insist Lee stays offshore through tomorrow while wrapping up more so this should just be a temporary stage.

I'm thinking that this is pretty much all we'll get out of Lee on this side of the storm, PTrackerLA. Nice and breezy and just a small drizzle.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like the dry air and shear coming from the west is starting to take its toll on Lee. It seems to be cutting the southern half of Lee off and drying up the deep moisture feed to its SE. Might not get close to the earlier forecasted amounts of rain. Will see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

Yeah it seems Highly unlikely that we will receive nearly as much rain or wind as forecast. IMHO

Won't hurt my feelings. The other day I was pretty concerned about power outage and as many trees down as we experienced wiith Gustav due to fact of how dry trees are then getting upwards of 20in of rain, saturating the ground and rootballs, and throwing 3-4 days of moderate to strong TS force winds with higher gusts of course on top of that. Had the potential to get pretty nasty around here.

[LaBreeze]

NAM is coming out. Looks wetter at SW LA @ 24 hours.

I am doubting this at the moment.

[yzerfan]

I'm 5 miles north of the Destin breakpoint, and we've gotten no rain so far, just a cloudy day with a stiff breeze and high surf.

[underthwx]

CM....is the poor organization a result of shear...?






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[Turtle]

I've been hearing that the left side is dying off? Will this affect the track of the storm?

[SoupBone]

Looks like he's dryin' out on the entire south side??? And comin' around to the east as well...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_GULF/anim16ir.html

Is that simply dry air intrusion? It's crazy how it went "poof" on his south side.

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030223
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 23 20110903
021400 2859N 09246W 8432 01521 //// +180 //// 054039 039 035 003 01
021430 2900N 09247W 8430 01524 //// +180 //// 056040 040 035 002 01
021500 2901N 09249W 8432 01524 //// +178 //// 060041 042 036 001 01
021530 2902N 09250W 8430 01526 //// +177 //// 061042 042 037 000 01
021600 2904N 09251W 8430 01527 //// +180 //// 060040 041 038 000 05
021630 2905N 09253W 8435 01524 //// +180 //// 061040 040 035 002 01
021700 2906N 09254W 8425 01535 //// +178 //// 059040 041 036 001 05
021730 2907N 09255W 8430 01526 //// +178 //// 060040 041 035 000 01
021800 2909N 09256W 8429 01526 //// +176 //// 061040 041 036 002 01
021830 2910N 09258W 8432 01525 //// +176 //// 060037 039 035 001 01
021900 2911N 09259W 8431 01526 //// +175 //// 060037 038 035 000 05
021930 2913N 09300W 8432 01525 //// +175 //// 058038 038 036 001 01
022000 2914N 09302W 8430 01527 //// +172 //// 059038 039 035 002 05
022030 2915N 09303W 8429 01530 //// +172 //// 061038 039 035 001 01
022100 2916N 09304W 8432 01527 //// +171 //// 062039 040 034 002 01
022130 2918N 09306W 8428 01532 //// +169 //// 064039 040 035 000 01
022200 2919N 09307W 8429 01531 //// +173 //// 060040 041 035 001 01
022230 2920N 09308W 8429 01532 //// +171 //// 061041 041 035 001 05
022300 2921N 09309W 8432 01530 //// +173 //// 060041 042 035 000 01
022330 2923N 09311W 8434 01530 //// +171 //// 060041 041 035 001 01
$$

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Huckster, with respect to our NWS office forecast we had the potential to receive that IF Lee would have kept it together and strengthened like the models were showing. Don't think anyone expected him to fall apart like he seems to be doing tonight.

[Annie Oakley]

DECODED DROPSONDE

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 02:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 13
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 07

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 2Z on the 3rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 28.2N 91.8W
Location: 140 miles (225 km) to the S (174°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
Marsden Square: 082 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb (29.53 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 60° (from the ENE) 20 knots (23 mph)
1000mb --496m (0 ft) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F) Unavailable (perhaps not representative)
925mb 691m (2,267 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 65° (from the ENE) 17 knots (20 mph)
850mb Information Unavailable

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 1:52Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 28.2N 91.83W
Splash Time: 1:54Z

Splash Location: 28.2N 91.82W
Splash Time: 1:54:03Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 20 knots (23 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 70° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1000mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 55° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 20 knots (23 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1000mb (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F)
945mb 23.0°C (73.4°F) 22.8°C (73.0°F)
864mb 20.4°C (68.7°F) 19.1°C (66.4°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb (Surface) 60° (from the ENE) 20 knots (23 mph)
939mb 60° (from the ENE) 19 knots (22 mph)
923mb 65° (from the ENE) 17 knots (20 mph)
912mb 105° (from the ESE) 13 knots (15 mph)
902mb 110° (from the ESE) 12 knots (14 mph)
859mb 75° (from the ENE) 5 knots (6 mph)

---

[bamajammer4eva]

Still expected to only make it to 65mph but 28 storms saying its moving more east than forecast which if so would allow more time over water if it missed Louisiana to the east.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

To all that are asking about Lee's demise tonight, looks to be the result or persistant westerly shear with a whole lot of dry air intrusion from Texas. Thanks a lot Texas, j/k

[psyclone]

ok so how many days in a row could people see TS force winds

Here is our forecast here in Baton Rouge:

LAZ046>048-031230-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE
442 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
EAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH INCREASING TO 50 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. EAST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. EAST WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 75 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. NORTH WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.LABOR DAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDY WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
30 PERCENT.

I would be absolutely SHOCKED if the Baton Rouge area got winds anywhere near those numbers, especially for such a long duration. At the airport in BR, at 9:00 pm, the wind was from the NE at 16 mph gusting to 23 mph. This has got to be one of the most sensational, exaggerated sounding forecasts I've seen. Can anyone else see any real justification for these high numbers?

i would take tropical cyclone point and click forecasts with a grain of salt. before charley, my point and click indicated wind gusts to 130mph were possible. i gusted to 10mph. now that is an extreme example but they are are subject to wild revisions over short timeframes

[weatherSnoop]

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