ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[ColdFusion]

Sitting here in Baton Rouge. We had one bout of squally weather around 11:30 this morning. The radar is showing rain, but I haven't seen hardly any since that time.

That's interesting - I've spoken to a couple of people in S LA who, despite radar showing that they should be getting considerable rainfall, have really not seen anything. Is there a particular reason why these echos would not be producing the rain they normally would?

[poof121]

Already looking at a 3 ft surge in Shell Beach...

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=8761305%20Shell%20Beach,%20LA&type=Tide+Data

[PTrackerLA]

I've seen just a few sprinkles all day, it keeps falling apart as it reaches Lafayette. Guess I'll get to mow the grass this evening after all before the alleged deluge.

[Turtle]

Well NWS upped my chance of rain to 40% (NE TX). Kinda makes sense since GFS is showing 1-2" of rain for me. I had about a 30 MPH gust of wind here and someone my parasol flew off the table.

*EDIT* Makes no sense though. All the models moved East. At least we have gusts (up to 35 MPH here) to look forward to.

[BigB0882]

Sitting here in Baton Rouge. We had one bout of squally weather around 11:30 this morning. The radar is showing rain, but I haven't seen hardly any since that time.

That's interesting - I've spoken to a couple of people in S LA who, despite radar showing that they should be getting considerable rainfall, have really not seen anything. Is there a particular reason why these echos would not be producing the rain they normally would?

This might sound really stupid but I know in the winter people talk about saturating the column. Is that only a winter precip phenomenon or could that be happening here as well with the rain to finally make it to the ground later.

[windnrain]

Baton rouge here...

Despite the radar showing that we should be getting considerable rain, it is barely even drizzling here all day. What gives?

Looks like its finally starting to wrap on satelite though.

[gboudx]

Sitting here in Baton Rouge. We had one bout of squally weather around 11:30 this morning. The radar is showing rain, but I haven't seen hardly any since that time.

That's interesting - I've spoken to a couple of people in S LA who, despite radar showing that they should be getting considerable rainfall, have really not seen anything. Is there a particular reason why these echos would not be producing the rain they normally would?

This might sound really stupid but I know in the winter people talk about saturating the column. Is that only a winter precip phenomenon or could that be happening here as well with the rain to finally make it to the ground later.

That's not stupid. Virga occurs any time of the year when you have dry low levels that need to be moistened up for the rain to reach the surface. I don't know if that's the case in BR, but could be.

And hey, it's a good thing the game tomorrow night is in Arlington and not BR. Would be a washout.

[underthwx]

what's the wind like across NCent. coast atm?....

[caneman]

What is the opening at 26.94° N Longitude= 89.74° W? Not a new LLC is it?? May just be a cloud illusion:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[windnrain]

Wind here in Baton Rouge in absent. A mild breeze.

Called my mother down in Larose, way more south than even I am, and she's just getting constant rain, but no real wind at all.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
2100 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 91.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 91.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 91.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.9N 91.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 28.5N 91.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 29.2N 91.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 29.7N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.1N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 0SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 31.5N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 33.6N 86.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 91.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...TROPICAL STORM LEE DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA COAST...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 91.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW AND
POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 60 MPH WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED ON AN OIL RIG LOCATED ABOUT 65
MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AN ALTITUDE A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE WARNING AREA OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN THESE AREAS. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[weunice]

Rain making it to the ground where I am in Baton Rouge ... just barely though. Agrees with what I am seeing on radar. Now my house is likely getting much harder rain. I will know soon ....

[Dean4Storms]

The dry air is really punching into this on the latest Sat. loop, it might struggle to deepen much more.

[LSU2001]

Larose is getting a bit of wind but only in squalls. I am in Cut Off and we are getting about 20 mph winds steady out of the east and south east with higher gusts in the squalls. The rain has been pretty steady since about 10:00 am with some downpours in the squalls or rainbands. There was just a tornado warning in South Eastern Lafourche and Jefferson parish at 3:47 pm. Probably a waterspout around Grand Isle/Fourchon.
Tim

[Frank P]

what's the wind like across NCent. coast atm?....

Light breeze on the beach in Biloxi, tide looks about normal, only one really good feeder band thus far earlier in the day.. actually a nice break from all the hot weather of late..

[underthwx]

Lee doesnt look like he's moving too much...may have to declare him a landmark...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BigA]

Sorry, couldn't resist. Lee is an embryonic tropical storm.



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In all seriousness, the structure looks better as the ULL's influence wanes. I think upper-end TS is a good prediction, given the increasingly favorable conditions, 36-48 hours more over water, and the storm's large size, which makes consolidation difficult. But if it fires some hot towers over the LLC tonight, it could ramp up quick.

[Countrygirl911]

i am glad it was just the swingset and nothing else last night we got the animals all locked up and safe. my only worry is i have 2 trees behind my trailor and they are leaning alot i am praying that they do not come crashing down but if they do that they go the other direction away from my home. i am suppose to go to a bday barty at my inlaws but not sure if i want to go expecially it the weather is going to deteriate i want to make sure my kids are safe and in bad weather the last place you want to be is on the road.

[underthwx]

too much time on your hands BigA?...

[JenBayles]

The dry air is really punching into this on the latest Sat. loop, it might struggle to deepen much more.

No doubt dry air from Texas. We eat moisture and spit out sand.